I am heading out for the evening so here are the rest:
Tuesday MLB Play
Tuesday NBA Play
Chicago U 180.5
Tuesday NHL Play
tampa bay +152
Tuesday NBA Play
Toronto U 190.5
Monday our 1 unit play on the Mets +109 won 2-0. Mejia went 6 2/3 innings and gave up only 4 hits…the bullpen came in and gave up only 2 hits. A great performance by the mets Monday.
Our slight edges went 0-3. Both totals in the NBA lost and Arizona +102 in MLB lost 5-1.
Today too early for plays or setups. But looking over the games tonight there are a lot of possibilities in all 3 sports if the numbers hold up.
I will post about 15 to 20 min before game times.
I received an email a few days ago about why I do not produce write ups on the games in more detail.
My methods are not really conducive to extensive write ups. My analysis is data driven along with high probability situations. I do not attempt to figure the games out based upon a more fundamental analysis as I do not know many handicappers that are successful using that technique. Matter of fact I know of none that are successful using that approach.
The best examples are the sports figures that handicap and lose money consistently. They have a knowledge of the players that most do not have and yet they cannot put it all together to produce winning results. Pete Rose is a good example along with several younger quarterbacks in the NFL that lost millions betting. Granted they may not be a good example as some clearly had gambling issues but it does serve up a good point.
The best approach I have found is to isolate variables that most handicappers do not use that have predictive value. An obvious example is the public sentiment (although this is getting more mainstream)and Reverse line moves. Once you get a handful of these types of variables then its a matter of incorporating them into a good solid handicapping method using models as a backup and situational analysis to confirm.
The problem is getting accurate data to use in backtesting. The other problem is that each sport has a different twist to it. So it takes a lot of work to get each sport down. And even then once you do its an absolute necessity to have solid money management. Even if you are a great handicapper you can go broke without solid money management. ( similar to great poker players that consistently play above their bankroll and stay broke)
Thats it for this morning. I was getting bored watching the stock market keep going up every day:)
Good Luck Today