Tuesday

July 22, 2014 9:10 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in INVESTING,MLB,NFL

Final Update

Tuesday MLB Plays
1 Unit
Arizona +107
Colorado U 10.5 +102

3:30 Update

Tuesday MLB Plays
1 Unit
Pitt U8 +101
1/2 U
Pitt -114

Three more plays look good but to be on the safe side I am going to watch the numbers until about 30 min before game times.

Monday we split on our 1/2 unit plays losing with Arizona +119 and winning the under in Colorado 10.5+111

All games are later today and right now it looks like it may be a busy evening. A lot of games look good right now…and a few totals. Usually by now I have narrowed it down to one or two possibilities.

I will update later this afternoon.

I posted regarding the hilton contest yesterday and if you missed it you can read yesterdays post. I had two emails wanting 400 total of the 1000 available. So if you have an interest there is still some left.

Emails regarding these swing trades are still coming in. Let me comment on one aspect of swing trading. Its not like poker where you can go on tilt and the game breaks up and saves you. If you tilt trading its just a question of time before your account goes busted. Its very important that you maintain discipline when swing trading. What I like about it is there is very little room for judgement. Everything is defined….entry and exit. No guesswork. So your emotions are out of the picture.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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monday

July 21, 2014 8:29 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in INVESTING,MLB,NFL

Monday MLB Play
ARizona +118
1/2 Unit

Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
3:30 Update

I have to leave for a bit but will be back for the later games. Up to the 5:30 games

Monday MLB Play
1/2 unit
Colorado U10.5 +111

Minn is very close to a play but I may not be able to monitor it.The public is right own the number 30 and I need it to be under 30 with a reverse line move..which we do have the RLM. But the under 30…who knows. I will try to update before the game.

There also is a late game that looks fine right now….but I will be back before then and able to look at the numbers..

Sunday we went 2-1 on our half unit plays splitting the home dogs..Minn +126 a loser and Miami +119 a Winner. Our favorite on NYY -119 was a winner.

The later game was very close to a play going with st louis vs Kershaw but the numbers I look at didnt quite get there and we avoided a 4-3 loss.

Today all games are late…but several look promising along with a total. I will update later.

I have gotten quite a bit of emails regarding my swing trades. Although no specific questions.

Right now I have no swing trades going and the last on USO lost around 1% and was down close to 3.5%. This is a good example of a losing trade.

In these trades it is vary rare you catch the exact bottom or top. Usually the trade goes against you at first then it comes back sharply and you get an exit signal. Of course the risk is a dramatic downswing ….that is why its best to use these trades on etfs rather then the stock of a company. Although I have about 20 stocks I keep track of that I use…but they are very carefully screened.

Amazingly we have football coming up in about 5 weeks. I plan on entering the Hilton contest this year again and my plan is to take 500 of the 1500….selling the remaining 1000 on similar to what I have done in the past..almost a first come first serve basis.

What interest you with up to 1000 gets you the exact percentage you buy in for. No vig or fees.

So..if you have an interest just drop me an email.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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Sunday

July 20, 2014 8:24 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in MLB

Final Update

Nothing has developed in the St Louis game….numbers have a bit of a ways to go and its only 3 min to game time…I am passing on the game

1:30 Update

Yankees and Miami both are in as winners but Minn is down by two with a few innings left. In tonights game depending how the final numbers come out there may be something on St Louis…I will update shortly before game time

10:45 Update

Sunday MLB Play
1/2 Unit
Minn +126

Saturday we lost our 1 unit play on Minn. Our half unit plays went 2-0 with St Louis and the Under in Atlanta winning. And our slight edge on the under in boston was good.

Today a full slate of early games…two look good to me:

Sunday MLB Plays
1/2 Unit
Miami +119
Yankees -119

Thats it for the 10:00 games…I will update a bit later for the remaining early games. Most likely no totals today.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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Saturday

July 19, 2014 7:20 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in INVESTING,MLB

3:30 update

Sat MLB play
1 unit
Minn+130
AtlantaU 7 -127

Slight edge
Boston U 8-110

12:40 update

Sat MLB play
1/2 unit
St louis +132

Friday no plays developed but our 2 slight edges split 1-1. Minn as a home dog was not close but the under on the angel game was good..but we had to wait 16 innings to find out.

Today a bit early for plays but in the 3 early games

Texas has 26% of the betting on them and the line has moved with the action -168 to -181. My models are neutral on the game and variables are split equally a pass for me.

Yankees have 30% of the betting on them with a reverse line move from -115 to -134. Variables point strongly to the yankees but my models point to Cinci. A pass. This would be a game if the numbers stayed the same by game time I would be 1 unit on the yankees if my models were neutral. But they are not so a pass.

Detroit in the first game of a double header has the betting split equally and the line moving from +111 to +120. I have nothing on the game…a pass

One afternoon game….St louis has 19% of the betting on them with the line moving with the betting +117 to +129. Variables point to st louis. my model points to st louis. This game has possibilities. But I want to wait until game time to see what the numbers show.

In the evening games a few possibilities both on sides and totals. I will update later this afternoon after the numbers settle down.

I have been getting quite a few emails regard my methodology on swing trading. This blog is primarily a handicapping blog but I would be glad to share some of my thoughts on swing trading. But rather then go into a rambling mode on the subject I would be happy to answer any specific questions. That would make it a bit easier for me.

There is quite a bit of profit to be made swing trading but their are many pitfalls you need to avoid. One of the top pitfall is your emotions. The best way to do that is trading within your bankroll( similar to poker) and have a set methodology in place that takes the guess work out of entries and exits. Their should be no room for guessing or random trading.

All of the methods I used have been studied substantially by many different people. Of course this is no guaranty of future success.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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Friday

July 18, 2014 8:57 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in INVESTING,MLB

4:30 update

Nothing developed today but a couple of slight edges

Slight edges
Mlb
Minn +112
Angels under 7.5 -115

Finally the 2nd half of the baseball season is here. Too early for plays but a few games look promising tonight.

ON the swing trade in USO. I purchased USO on 7/ for 38.24 and sold it on 7/17 for 37.82. For a loss of 1.1 %. This trade is a good example of these types of swing trades. We had at on point a loss of over 3% on the trade. The two day bounce triggered the sell signal. Typically these trades do no catch the exact bottom or top But they are positive Ev in the long haul.

I will update a bit later

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplasy
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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Thursday

July 17, 2014

Swing trade exit I exited uso at 37.82 just before the clos We are finishing up the all star break so it looks like a good time to go over the first half of the season.MLB 2014-2015 Our last play on KC +125 was a winner. 1 Unit Plays -4.51 Home Dog 11-21 -6.66 Units [...]

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Sunday

July 13, 2014

Saturday was a shut out. We lost our 1 unit play on the cubs. Also lost our two 1/2 unit plays on the cubs U and Texas +150. Today so far only one game I am interested in Sunday MLB Play 1 unit KC +125 I will update if anything else develops. Good Luck Today [...]

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Saturday

July 12, 2014

3:30 update Sat MLB play 1/2 unit Texas +150 12:30 update Sat MLB play 1/2 unit Cubs U8.5 +110 Friday we won our 1 unit play on San Diego +104. Its a bit early today but one game stands out so I will put it out now Saturday MLB Play 1 Unit Cubs +109 I [...]

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Friday

July 11, 2014

Final Update Friday MLB Play 1 Unit San Diego +104 Thursday we went 1-1 on our half unit plays. Cleveland -145 was a winner and U8 on the game a loser. Today only 1 early game. Betting on the cubs is 49% as a pick -107 at home. Variables favor the cubs and models slightly [...]

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Thursday

July 10, 2014

3:40 update Thurs MLB play 1/2 unit Cleve -145 CleveU 8-101 10:20 Update Three more early games. The only game of interest is Phil with 28% of the betting on them. The line has moved with the betting from -208 to -213. Variables and models favor Phil. But not enough for me to even call [...]

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Wednesday

July 9, 2014

3:30 update Slight edges MLB Cubs +141 Boston +104 10:30 Update Wednesday MLB Play 1/2 Unit Colorado U11.5 -102 Tuesday we went 1-1 on our half unit plays. Cleveland +137 was a winner and Under -107 in the Boston game was a loser. We had the total covered going into the 9th but the white [...]

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Tuesday

July 8, 2014

3:15 Update Tuesday MLB Plays 1/2 Unit Cleveland +137 Boston U9.5 -107 USO is no unchanged….but no rally today puts us in for at least another day. As far as a swing trade in SPY my models still tell me its a bit early for that…although another down day would almost certainly trigger a buy [...]

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