August 1, 2014 2:39 pm · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in MLB

Final Update

Friday MLB Play
1/2 Unit
Cubs +134

6:30 Update

Friday MLB Play
1/2 Unit
San Diego +118

Thursday we lost our 1/2 unit play on Miami and also lost our slight Edge setup.

Today some games look good to me:

Friday MLB Play
1 unit
seattle +129
texas + 160

1/2 Unit
Miami -110

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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Thursday

July 31, 2014 8:46 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in INVESTING,MLB

4:40 Update

Slight Edge
MLB
MInn +189

Houston has only 18% of the betting on them with a reverse line move. However thats about it. I need something else also to pull the trigger on them. But it would be Houston or pass for me. I am passing

3:40 Update

Thursday MLB Play
1/2 U
MIami +103

Wednesday we had 4 1/2 unit plays and split 2-2 for a small gain. Of course its always great to start out 0-2 in the early game:)

Three early games and so far there is nothing that stands out to me in these games. I am most likely passing on all three games. Colorado so far in the early games is the least public number at 25%. But no reverse line move. If the number is <25 it would then fall into a colorado or pass for me.

San Diego is next at at 29%. Variables slightly favor San Diego..Models are neutral. If we had a reverse line move I would consider a half point play on san diego…but its quite a bit away from that.

Finally the white sox is 35%. Nothing there at all I can see.

I will update a bit later this afternoon.

I have been watching the stock market go straight down this morning giving us a 1.55% loss today. Looks like this trade will be a few more days at least.

A few comments:

“Rick – sorry if I missed this previous explanation, but noticed you are now taking run-line positions. Can you explain what led to this and how +EV can be derived from those types of wagers?

Thanks!”

These plays are a new subset I have uncovered. Not many of these show up but backtesting shows them to be quite profitable. I have also put in a few other requirements as filters. If your uncomfortable taking these then just pass on these plays. They certainly do not have the history of other setups.

“Hello,

first of all, I really like your blog on 2+2. I want to ask you if you offer coaching hours. From your picks you often say that the edges are really thin in sports betting. Is that my perception or is it really that close/thin. Im consderering to switch to sports betting from poker. I read the book “Changing the Game” from wall street shark Will Hall. Have you any thoughts about this book? I really enjoyed it and I really like his mathimatical system “Get In and Win” which includes value rating. But my main questions would be if you offer some coaching and if you can tell me if the edges in sports betting are mostly really that thin and close or if you just hide the profitable bets from the public which is absolulety reasonable.

Regards”

As far as coaching I do not have the time to do that. This is primarily a hobby for me and at this point I am still not looking to turn this into any type of financial endeavor….even though I am spending quite a bit of time in the morning on this.
I have not read changing the game..but I will take a look at it.
As far as other bets I do from time to time take other wagers but not very often. I do take everything I post however. And I pretty much adher to 3% of what I have set aside for sports betting for each wager.

Good luck today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

{ 0 comments }

Wednesday

July 30, 2014 7:43 am · 1 comment

by RickJ · 1 comment

in INVESTING,MLB

3:30 Update

We didnt fare very well in the two early games losing both. Two half unit plays lost.

Tonight another two 1/2 unit plays

Wedn MLB Plays
1/2 Unit
Baltimore +122
Texas +124

One game to not The white sox are +228. Variables are very strong in favor of the White sox..for me it the dog or a pass. I am passing.

10:30 Update

Two more early games today. Houston is a game I am looking for any excuse to wager on. At only 22% of the betting on them with a reverse line move it almost looks like a no brainer. However variables do favor Houston today also there is one variable that points strongly to Oakland…so I am passing. But for me it would be Houston or a pass…I am passing.

The other game is San Francisco. Public is 68% on San Fran and the line has barely moved. Variables favor San Fran…for me San Fran or pass….I am passing

8:50 Update

The numbers have changed a bit on the Phil game

Wedn MLB Play
1/2 Unit
Phil +147

Tuesday we won our 1 unit play on Minn +179. We lost our 1/2 unit play on the run line on Detroit.

Today some early games. Very early:)

Wednesday MLB Play
1/2 Unit
Miami +138

Slight Edge
MLB
Phil +146

Our swing trade is a bit down this morning. But of course Yellen could turn it around a bit later today:) Or of course we could get a good dip from here depending what she has to say.

I will update a bit later.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

{ 1 comment }

Tuesday

July 29, 2014 10:12 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in INVESTING,MLB,NFL

4:00 Update

Tuesday MLB Play
1 Unit
Minn +179

Two other games of interest are Houston and Texas…These do not qualify for even a slight edge but for me it would be the dog or a pass….I am passing.

3:30 Update

Tues MLB Play
1/2 Unit
Detroit -1.5 +129

Swing Trade Long

Buy 550 SPY 197.10

Monday we had an easy 1/2 Unit win with Miami +129. Only down 6-0 going into the bottom of the 7th Miami made a great comeback with 2 in the 7th 1 in the 8th and down by 3 scored 4 in the bottom of the 9th to win the game!

Also our Slight Edge with Houston +169 was a 7-3 winner.

Today a bit early as all the games are this evening. But there are a few that look good right now. But the numbers will change. I will update later this afternoon.

I mentioned the potential for a swing trade long at the end of the trading day yesterday but the market did not cooperate and rallied into the close. So back to waiting mode for index swing trades.

I am still getting emails regarding the NFL Hilton contest. The 1000 is taken.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

{ 0 comments }

Monday

July 28, 2014 8:06 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in INVESTING,MLB,NFL

3:30 Update

Monday MLB Play
1/2 Unit
Miami +129

Slight Edge
MLB
Houston +169

Sunday our 1/2 unit play on the Angels as a home fav won 2-1. Our two slight edges both lost.

Today one early game Atlanta has 85% of the betting on them and the line has moved with the action -153 to -199. My models have nothing on Lane the pitcher for San Diego. Variables favor Atlanta. A pass for me.

Tonight some possibilities and I will update later this afternoon.

Over the weekend I had a phone call from someone here in Las Vegas that wanted the entire 1000 available for a 2/3rds interest in the Hilton contest. Since this is going to be the easiest for me that is the way I am going. I do appreciate the emails requesting an interest but this year now everything is now closed.

Depending what the stock market does we may get a swing trade long. If it goes back to test or break the lows of the day then a long at the close is likely. I will update before the close if I take the trade.

Good Luck Today

Rickj
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

{ 0 comments }

Sunday

July 27, 2014

1:00 Update Only two games of interest in the remaining games of the day San Diego Has 26% of the betting on them with a reverse line move from +170 to +156. However variables strongly favor Atlanta..so a pass Texas has 12 % of the betting on them and so far no reverse line move [...]

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Saturday

July 26, 2014

4:30 update Sat MLB play 1/2 unit Texas +165 Colorado +109 Colorado U10.5 -120 3:30 update Sat MLB play 1/2 unit Atlanta -1.5 +126 12:30 update Slight edge MLB Cubs -126 Friday we won our 1 unit play on the Cubs +124. We split our 1/2 unit plays on the totals. For those of you [...]

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July 25, 2014

5:00 update Friday MLB play 1/2 unit Colorado U10 +101 Noon Update Friday MLB Play 1 Unit Cubs +124 1/2 Unit Cubs U 9.5-120 Thursday our 1/2 unit Run Line play on Seattle lost. Our Slight edge on Philly won. Today a full slate of games. If the numbers hold there will be some plays [...]

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Thursday

July 24, 2014

Final update Thursday MLB play 1/2 unit Seattle -1.5. +157 Wednesday we went 0-2 on our 1/2 Unit plays and our slight edge on Milwaukee lost. The white sox was a close one but Arizona never really had a chance. They teased us scoring 5 after falling behind 7-0…but that was it. Today a few [...]

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Wednesday

July 23, 2014

4:00 update Nothing else today 11:00 Update A few more early games….On Seattle game I see nothing that interests me. variables slightly favor Seattle. Colorado nothing either. Although there is a strong variable on the over on the game. If my models were neutral I would bet on the Over. But they slighly favor the [...]

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Tuesday

July 22, 2014

Final Update Tuesday MLB Plays 1 Unit Arizona +107 Colorado U 10.5 +102 3:30 Update Tuesday MLB Plays 1 Unit Pitt U8 +101 1/2 U Pitt -114 Three more plays look good but to be on the safe side I am going to watch the numbers until about 30 min before game times. Monday we [...]

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monday

July 21, 2014

Monday MLB Play ARizona +118 1/2 Unit Rickjshandicappingpicks.com 3:30 Update I have to leave for a bit but will be back for the later games. Up to the 5:30 games Monday MLB Play 1/2 unit Colorado U10.5 +111 Minn is very close to a play but I may not be able to monitor it.The public [...]

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