Finally its here…..SuperBowl Sunday!!! A full RickJ rundown below

Saturday was a busy day with plays as we had 6 plays spread out over 3 sports. In college hoops we went 3-1 and continue our flirtation of breaking the 60% barrier again with a win rate of 59.60% on 151 plays for the season. Not many can do that year in and year out:) Our winning plays were on Marquette +12, Kansas St +4.5 and Notre Dame +2.5 We lost with Depaul +11.5. 2 of our plays were against the #1 and #2 teams in college hoops and not only did we cover fading the top 2 teams but we won both outright! In the NHL we lost with Minn +120 and in the NBA we lost with Detroit +4.5.

Now on to the good stuff. The Superbowl. The game where sports bettors all over the world line up at the sports books to make wager 10x their usually betting size to satisfy there primal urges to gamble. Well if you must do that let me try to give you some type of framework to consider before you spend your hard earned money on one NFL Game:)

Here is how I look at the game and decide what I want to do (either wager or not wager)

1. I take a look at the numbers to see if there are any clues as to where the right side might be on the game

A. Clue 1: 65% of the betting is on Carolina on massive betting volume. That is a pretty high number for the Superbowl. Typically my rule is if that if its 2 to 1 on a side of the game I really want to avoid being on that side. The higher the ratio the more I want to avoid the side. For instance New England Denver was 3 to 1.

B. Clue 2: The next thing I look at is what has the line been doing in relation to the % number. The two books I tend to look at for this is Pinnacle and Cris. On Pinnacle the line opened at -3.5 -105 and is now -5+100. On Cris -4-116 and is now -5.5-105. So the line has moved with the betting but not over any key numbers.

C. Clue 3: How high has the line been before game time. I like to take a look at this as it gives me an idea where the “sharps” are jumping into the betting. In this instance they did not start getting involved until a few days ago where there were as many +6 as +5.5. You can see its even more prevalent on Pinnacle where you can Lay the five even money.

D. Clue 4: What do my models tell me. My models say the line should be a tad under +3. That seems reasonable and falls in line with my view that typically when the betting % gets in the 2 to 1 area not only do the books shade the opener but they do not mind moving it with the betting at least until the “Sharps” start pounding the game.

E.Clue 5: What do I hear from the sports betting crowd. Almost without exception Carolina is a cinch to win the game easily. However the sentiment is not as vocal as it was in the New England Denver game. If you said you said you liked Denver against New England you risked having to fight someone:) This game is not quite in that category but you do get a mixed reaction anywhere from silence to laughter. That is still a very good sign if your betting on Denver.

F: Clue 6: What angles are there that are reliable on the game. Now do not think for a second I am going to disclose any angles I use for handicapping. What most people do not know is the angles handicappers use and have accumulated over the years is a secret they will guard with their lives! It takes a massive amount of time and energy to accumulate angles that are reliable. But let me say this is the only one of the clues I consider that does not point strongly one way or another. There are very good angles on both sides and I would be stretching it to say they lean to one side or another. I give this clue a tossup.

Now you might ask where is my matchup analysis between Peyton Manning and Cam Newton? Or where is my analysis of yards rushing and passing? For me analyzing those “fundamental variables” are time wasters. In my years of handicapping I have maybe knows 2 or 3 handicappers that were successful handicapping based upon matchups. And they all included some of the analysis above in conjunction with there max up skills. But I can tell you that 99% of handicappers that attempt to handicap a game using match up numbers will be unsuccessful. More often then not the conclusion you reach based upon that type of analysis is the wrong one unless you take the other side!

The books have the top experts in the business helping them put out these lines. They know where the value is and they know what the public is going to do with the line before they put it out. There is no fundamental stat that they do not take into consideration in putting out the lines. So why waste your time going over something where you have virtually no chance of gaining the edge.

Now back to my opinion. First I am not going to bet the game. I need almost everything to match up before I place money on a side. The lack of a strong angle edge precludes me from betting the game. At least according to the rule based betting procedure I use. But if your going to bet the game the only side that has value is Denver. There is no value on Carolina. And if your wondering why just reread clues A through G!

But remember this is sports betting and on any given day any side can cover the spread. These lines are never that far off. But my analysis comes into play on the assumption that if you were to make 10,000 wagers under these circumstances you would be on the plus side. An analogy would be finding someone to give you 6 to 5 on a coin flip. Your going to get all the money eventually but you might lose a few coin flips:)

For subscribers I am around all day for questions about the game. And also I will be sending out plays in college hoops, NBA and NHL shortly before game times. If your not a subscriber then join us. Its only a small month subscription. Just hit the paypal button on the upper right. Hope to see you join our group.

Good Luck Today which ever way you go on the game.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)
Private Twitter: Rick_sports

CONTINUE READING

Another 100 college hoop day today! And it all begins in 2.5 hours:)

3:00 Update

At 4 #2 North Carolina is on the road against un ranked Notre Dame. Betting is 76% on N. Carolina with the line moving from -3 to -2.5 contrary to the betting. This is very similar to my comments in the Virgina Pitt game with the difference being instead of 61% its 76% on the favorite. Typically these are good setups to add to your handicapping techniques. But again for me its the only thing pointing to Notre Dame and I need a bit more.

8:20 Update

At 9:00 #9 Virginia will be on the road against un ranked Pitt.

61% of the betting is on Pitt yet the line has moved from -1.5 to -1 and in some sports even. This is very similar to the Texas A&M game from a few days ago where a ranked road team was against an unranked home team with a high % of the betting on the ranked team and the line moving contrary to the betting. This is a setup you should be looking for especially on a day when there are 100 games. You might uncover a number of these today. Now for me that alone is not enough for it to become a play or a setup. But its a nice starting point to say the least!!!

Friday we had one play and it lost with Fairfield +11. And the game was never in doubt as they lost by 30!

No markets this morning so its a good time to discuss my Must Read portion of my site.

Let me start out by saying its my firm belief that Human nature will sabotage your success at sports betting at every corner. Human nature if its not understood and harnessed will make sure you virtually no chance at making money betting sports.

Now I know that is quite a statement but its based upon my observations of gamblers over the years. In addition I have some insights personally with harnessing my “human nature”!

As an example we went subscription for plays and setups on this site a few months ago. For the most part I have retained 90% of my subscribers which in all likelyhood is probably some sort of a record for handicapping sites. But to make my point 10% have dropped off and quit. Now I can understand that during a severe drawdown. But this is during a successful and NHL and College hoop season. I would suspect my combined record this season to date in the NHL and College hoops is in the top 3 of all sports handicapping services. For value its most likely #1 by far.

But despite that about 10% have quit the service which means they lost money. People do not quit because they are making money. Which in a round about way proves my point.

Now the reason 10% have lost money is because human nature what it is they find a way to turn a very profitable situation into defeat. They pick and choose plays, they bet on setups when I mention I do not bet them, they throw in their own handicapping techniques (ones they have lost money for years using), and they find a way to miss winning plays.

Now if you knew the time and energy I put into handicapping every day you would scratch your head. But being blessed with an obsessive nature I am unable to not do what I do. So I have chanelled it into a productive and entertaining pasttime.

Now you may ask why am I sharing the above with you. Its because its a learning experience that I think everyone can gain from. I will tell you that if you do not follow my guidelines on how to wager on my plays you might as well not start the service. You will end up being disapointed and will in all probability lose money despite we are hitting almost 60% winners in college hoops and are ahead about 15 units in the NHL.

You can take the above to the bank so to speak. You cannot leave your betting amounts to a variable as random as human nature. If you do you have virtually no chance at coming out ahead and that would be true if I put out 90% winners.

So do yourself a favor if you want to have the best chance at becoming a successful handicapper. 1. Set aside a bankroll for sports betting in an amount that if you lose it all its will not cause you any concern at all 2. wager 2% of your bankroll as your bet size. 3. When there are multiple wagers at the same time you can reduce the size of each wager a bit 4. Get your mind away from the thrill of betting to the thrill of maintaining a disciplined approach.

Well I had betting get back to work. Less then 2 hours before game time.

I am available this morining for any questions. But please send them via email rather then twitter. Much easier for me to see.

And I ask this as a favor…please spread the word about this site and service.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)
Private Twitter: Rick_sports

CONTINUE READING

The Fed is at it again

2:15 Update

Thursday we had 4 plays and two setups. Our College hoop play on E. Kentucky +5.5 was an easy winner as they won by 10! Our NHL plays keep rolling along with a 2-1 day for 1.14 units. Winning with San Jose and Columbus and losing with Minn. Finally our two setups in college hoops both lost.

We are off to a great start in February now on the plus side +4.74 units after just 4 days!

Its a very light schedule tonight but a few games in college hoops look promising. In addition we have another 100 game line up tomorrow. So I had best get to bed early tonight to get ready for the onslaught!

I am happy to say that our group of handicappers since this has become a subscription service have had great results. All you need do is take a look at the results on the right side of the page to get an idea of how we have done. Now that I am handicapping full time it has allowed me to focus in and refine my approach. This has shown dramatic results in the NHL and also conference play in College hoops. Its well known that conference play in college hoops is the most difficult time to handicap baskets. But we have produced results that any other service would envy. Matter of fact one of the top services in the country cuts their college handicapping off about 2 weeks into the college hoop conference play season to start up again around tournament time. Its that difficult to handicap.

I would like all to profit from this service and would like to produce some kind of incentive to all who refer signups to the handicapping service. My thought is a 1/2 month of service for each customer that you refer to this service that signs up for 1 month. All they need do when signing up is give me your twitter handle and I will credit your account for 1/2 month for each new subscriber!

If anyone has any questions about this all you need do is send me an email.

Or if your reading this for the first time or have been following this site for awhile join us and become part of a rare group of handicappers that will be able to say at year end that they are in the 1% that made money handicapping!!! Just hit the paypal button and pick the subscription of your choice. Hope to see you join us.

Best of luck tonight with your handicapping!!!

Rick

It appear that between the great jobs report this morning and the Fed back to crazy mode the markets are back into free fall. The jobs report this morning was great. That of course is negative for the forward thinking market participants as it now cements in more rate hikes (as the thinking goes). The we have the Fed back on the speaking circuit announcing they see no reason not to raise rates again in march.

So the result of all of this is the market down -170 as I write this. Of course we have the naysayers that laugh when you mention that this time is really different. And I can relate to that thinking since after all the last 7 years has been incredible run in the markets.

But looking logically at the backdrop of where we stand now it appears to me that this time might actually be different! Massive crushing regulatory environment, large governmental programs increasing the cost of doing business, a closed minded fed that has decided its time to take liquidity out of the markets, and finally a world that is prone to explode at any time in a variety of different places.

Now understanding this do you logically think we are still in an environment that is friendly for the markets?

So what do you do now. My thinking is lighten up and wait. You can use several markers for noticing a change. 1. The Nasdaq leading the Dow on a weekly basis and 2. The markets recovering their 200 day moving average. Now that’s just two indicators there are more. But one thing that is unanimous is that it is a very dangerous time to be long a large portfolio of your net worth.

Myself although my timing was not perfect am out of the market with the exception of about 5 shorts which I exited 3 of them on this move down this morning. I will be looking for tactile trades both long and short with virtually no position trades for now.

If you want to follow my trades just send me an email and sign up for a 2 week free trial.

Now its not a bear market everywhere! In my sports plays we went 3-1 yesterday for a +2.14 unit day. Bringing us to +4.74 units for the month and its only the 5th!!! So a bull market in sports plays right now:) At least for RickJ’s Handicapping Picks.

If you want to take advantage of it the cost is minimal. Just a small monthly subscription. Just hit the paypal button and pick the subscription of your choice.

Hope to see you on Board with us.

Good Luck trading today and more on sports a bit later

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)
Private Twitter: Rick_sports

CONTINUE READING

Another Wild Overnight Session.

Europe was on the plus side almost 1.5 % overnight here in the U.S. In addition the U.S. Markets were up over !% overnight. As I wake up this morning everything has been turned upside down. When is this insomnia inducing volitlity going to end? After all we had a very grim January isnt that enough?

Its going to end when people will no long want to mention the markets. It will end when your hair stylist is no longer touting Microsoft or Apple. And finally and more importantly it will end when it ends and once you realize you have 0 control over it the idea of do not fight the tape might sink in. Especially after you have gone through all your money:)

I know its no laughing matter but humor is the only way to keep things in perspective. As long as your position sizing and picking a technique that has proven to be long term profitable you will stay out of trouble. However if your like many gamblers I have run across …Yes the ones that when they are winning cant wait for an excuse to get up from the poker table but when they are behind you might find them still sitting at the table 3 days later down 100 to 200 big bets… then you are not having a lot of fun in the markets right now.

My job is hopefully to give you some introspective ability with a goal of changing behavior that might be impeding your ability to make money in the markets. It requires discipline and reason. Its something I have learned over the years from the undisciplined side of the equation. So when I give my opinions its from not only my observations about other people but first hand in the Pilot’s seat!!!

Well I am short several stocks right now and thats it. I have no intent of putting on any portfolio under these conditions. Sure It would of been better to do that mid to end of December…but woulda coulda shoulda is not in my vocabulary( Thats a term I was taught from a Tall Blonde Reno Blackjack dealer I dated years and years ago.

Well back to the markets this morning. Also have an interview with a radio station in chicago on my take on the superbowl. I used to give interviews back when I practiced law but have gotten away from that. They tend to be fun and entertaining.

Have a great day in the markets today!

If you want a 2 week free trial to follow what I do for trades every day. Just send me an email and I will get you set up.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)
Private Twitter: Rick_sports

CONTINUE READING

After the Fall: What is in store for the markets today?

11:30 Update

We started out February the right way with a 3-1 day for plays. We went 2-0 in College hoops winning with Depaul +8 as they won the game outright by 8 and also winning with Drake +10.5. We had 2 NHL plays with Toronto +160 and Ottawa +165. They split for a +.60 in the NHL, So for our first plays of February we are +2.60 units. Certainly on the right track.

Another busy night today with a full slate of College hoops, NHL and NBA. Let see if we can keep this going!

I have been getting a more then normal amount of emails requesting information about this service. Evidently a large site must of mentioned my site. So let me give you a brief rundown of my service:

1. The service covers all plays and setups for the month you subscribe
2. The cost is a small monthly charge. The idea is that I invest a substantial amount of money into the data and software I need to handicap the games. This monthly fee helps defray my monthly expenses in addition ideally once I get a bigger subscriber base will also compensate me for the enormous amount of time I put into handicapping every day.
3. In addition I am available to subscribers for any questions they might have throughout the day. All you need do is send me an email and I will reply promptly.

Comparing this to other services the cost is minimal compared to services that charge up to 1500 for 1 sport 1 season. Once you pay your locked in for the season. This service you can pick and choose what months you wish to subscribe and covers every sport I handicap during that month. In addition I will put my results up against any other service around. This is a full time endeavor for me now and I take it very seriously as most of you that have been following me know.

If you have any questions about the service just send me an email at [email protected] If your ready to subscribe just hit the paypal button on the upper right and pick the subscription of your choice. I hope to see you on board with us soon!!!

Rick

A big surprise for investors on Tuesday as the markets were in free fall all day. The only thing missing was a rate hike and then it would of been perfect!

Today we are gaping up about .5% about 30 min before the open. I have my doubts whether this is going to hold today as I believe we are heading down to the lows in the next few weeks. But it will not be in a straight line but enough to wiggle everyone into losing money:) Thats the nature of the markets.

Right now I have on several trades both long and short, and an option income trade that expires at the close Friday. These weekly Volatility option plays during earnings season can be very profitable. However they are not without risk. But when you make the trades properly you essentially playing the side of the house. Always a good side to be on as long as you again manage risk properly.

And did I forget I am in a good mood this morning going 2-0 in college Hoops last night and 1-1 in the NHL on 2 +160 Dogs for a +2.60 Unit day! Life is good:)

Since I jettisoned my portfolio of stocks the daily swings have diminished and the market direction is no longer a huge concern for the portfolio. Typically Buying a basket of stocks in late October early November and selling the basket the end of April works out very well. This season however that strategy was a complete disaster which had me fudge a bit and unload everything on the rally towards the end of January. That is virtually something I do not usually do. But when they say this time is different my thoughts are they are right.

Liquidity is drying up for a number of reasons. There is going to come a time when the countries are going to have to face the consequences of easy money. We are not there yet but its coming. And if you want to know what its going to look like…think the housing crisis times 10! There are a number of world wide financial institutions that are exposed on this severe oil decline. Very Ugly.

Enough of the rambling this morning …time to get ready for the open:)

Good Luck Trading today.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)
Private Twitter: Rick_sports

CONTINUE READING

Iowa Caucus Over…Now we can get back to the markets!

3:30 Update

I have updated College hoops for January and the results through the end of January are as follows:

January 30-17-1 63.83%
December 19-21 47.5 %
November 34-20-1 62.9%
Season 83-58 -2 58.86%

A good month and we are still hitting almost 60% for the season on 141 Plays. A very solid season. And we have tournament time coming up which tends to be right up there with pre conference play for profitability.

In addition I shared with you a few days ago an email from a long time follower. It was nice to get another so soon:

“Hi Rick,

First, I’d like to echo the post from yesterday. In the last two years, I’ve learned so much and I can’t say enough about the service. It still seems too good to be true.”

That really is my reward to have followers that not only make money but learn as this site continues to develop over the last 13 years. I know that I am continually in a learning process. Handicapping keeps you on your toes adapting to the ever changing environment!

Its never too late to jump on board with us through this handicapping journey. Just hit the paypal button on the upper right and become a member of a group that will most likely be able to say they are on ef the select few handicappers that made money at the end of the year. There are very few that can say that.

In addition I would ask that all of you help me grown this site. You can do that by hitting the share buttons, mentioning this site on any forums you participate in and telling other sports bettors about the site and service. The great majority of my followers have been obtained through word of mouth as opposed to any advertising. Thats really one of the greatest compliments this site can have.

So hope to see you on board with us.

One final note. I would like all subscribers and followers to communitcate with me through email from now on. First its something I monitor very close and also I see that sometimes our communications get tweeted out to everyone. Thank You

Rick

12:40 Update

The market has told us today what it is going today. It looks like a test of the low in in the works. If anyone was thinking the drop was finish and volatility over this is a wake up call to say the least. I am actually in the +column today and my plan to trade statistically should keep me out of trouble. I of course did not avoid the January carnage but kept my loses manageable which is all you can ask for considering the historic fall.

Meanwhile in sports there were no plays Monday but we had a setup on Louisville which was a winner. Also not that my computer headaches are about over I have gotten somewhat close to being caught up. All the records in sports are updated and current. I will comment on that later this afternoon. Should be a busy night today for sports as there are quite a few games that have potential.

Rick

Slowly but surely I am fixing all issues with my new site. Always an ordeal and always unexpected crazy issues crop up. But now I can concentrate on the market and it looks like a 1% gap to the downside this morning. My guess is the test of the lows is about to begin very soon. As long as the Fed does not hop onto the Free money bandwagon there is nothing to stop the markets from heading down. Also in the background although the Fed turned a little less hawkish they have been taking liquidity out of the markets. The asset purchases that were silently providing liquidity have taken a dramatic turn down last week. Not as obvious as rate hikes but just as deadly!

Anymore politics provide a comic relief to otherwise crazy days. What could me more comedic then Trump’s concession speach. He ended it with hey I might come back to Iowa and buy a farm! I dont know about you but I found that pretty funny. Now I am know way intending to give any opinions regarding politics. I always very carefully keep that out of this site. But my weird sense of humor that that was a bit out of the realm of normal behavior. But really when has any politican been accused of normal behavior:)

If you want a more detailed opinion of what I think of the markets right now just look at yesterday’s post. If today’s down move holds then Test has failed for the markets. Will be an interesting day. I am long a few stocks and short a few. I am carefully looking for some quick option income plays. The only trades I am going to consider right now are the swing, mean reversion and option income trades. Thats it for now. Quick in and out high EV trades.

As we head into this Tuesday morning the markets are severely overbought short term. It will take a huge move to the downside to correct this in one day. Most likely we will see it over most of this week.

I came across a speech this morning that had a bit of an effect on me. Its got nothing to do with the markets but is an interesting take on life in general:

This Is Water by David Foster Wallace | Full Speech

Its about 25 min long and well worth listening to. I had not heard of the speaker and did a bit of searching on him. He is a well written author and tragically ended his own life at age 45. Brilliance can be a heavy burden at times.

Have a good Day trading today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)
Private Twitter: Rick_sports

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NFL 2015

Post Season

Side
2-1
Bet or Pass
Under 1-0
Over 0-1

Regular Season

9-12

Bet or Pass
Home Dog
5-2
Away Dog
5-2
Home Fav
1-0
Total U
16-9
Total Ov
1-0

Hilton Contest

42-38

Preseason

Bet or Pass
Sides 3-4
Totals 2-3

NCAA Hoops 2015

NCAA Hoops 2015

Season 90-61 -2 59.60%
November 34-20-1 62.9%
December 19-21 47.5 %
January 30-17-1 63.83%
February 7-3 70%

February

Sides:
Away dog 3-1
Home Dog 1-0

Bet or pass
1-3

January
Sides:
Away Dog 17-12
Home Dog 11-2-1
Home Fav 0-2

Totals:
Under 1-0

Bet or Pass

20-25-2

December
Sides
Home Dog 3-2
Road Dog 5-5
Home Fav 0-1
Under
Totals 11-14

Bet or Pass
Road dog 2-2-2
Home Fav 1-0

November 34-20-1 62.9%

Sides
Road Dog 8-3-1 72.7%
Home Dog 0-1

Totals
Under 26-16 61.9%

NHL 2015

Season +14.15

February

Away Dog
3-3 +0.74

January
Away Dog 9-11 +3.16
Home Fav 1-0 +1.00

December
Away Dog 13-10 +9.30

Bet or Pass
Away Dog 1-2 -.91

November -2.51

Away Dog
12-20 -1.51
Home Dog
0-1 -1.00

Totals
0-0-1

October +3.43

Away Dog
10-10 +5.79
Home Fav
1-1 -0.16
Home Dog
0-2 -2.00

NBA 2015

Regular Season 11-12-1

February
Away Dog
0-1

January
Away Dog
3-4-1

December
Away Dog
5-7

November
Away Dog
1-0

Bet or Pass
Home Dog 1-1
Away Dog 11-13
Road Fav 0-1

October
Away Dog 2-0

Preseason
12-9-1 57.14%

NCAA FB 2015

Bowl Games

5-7

Bet or Pass

1-0

Season Plays
9-11-1

Home dog
5-5
Road Dog
2-5
Home Fav
1-1-1

Totals
Under
1-0

Bet or Pass
Road Fav 1-0
Road Dog 11-11-2
Home Dog 2-2
Home Fav 2-4
Totals 1-3

WNBA 2015

Bet or Pass

Road Dog 2-0
Home Fav 0-2

MLB 2015

World Series
2-1 +1.04

Playoffs

1-1 0.00

Bet or Pass
7-1 +6.56

September

Win Loss for Month -1.61

Home Dog 2-7 -5.12
Away dog 2-2 +3.49

August

Win Loss for Month -14.29

Home pick
1-0 +1.00
Home Fav
3-1 +1.92
Road Dog
9-17 -3.74
Home Dog
9-20 -5.19
Totals
Under
0-3 -3.18

July

Win Loss for Month -8.73

Home Fav
1-1 -0.33
Home Dog
2-6 -3.42
Away Dog
6-10 -1.71
Home Pick
0-1 -1.05
Totals
0-2 -2.22

June

Win Loss for Month +11.17

Home Pick
3-2 +1.28
Home Fav
3-1 +1.43
Road Fav
2-0 +2.00
Home Dog
4-5 +0.12
Away Dog
5-2 +4.30
Totals
2-0 +2.02

Bet or Pass
Away Dog
2-1 +2.04

May

Away Dog
6-16 -7.96
Home Dog
1-4 -2.86
Run Line
1-1 +.65
Pick Games
2-0 +2.00
Totals
1-1 -0.10

Win Loss for Month -8.27
Totals Setups (for tracking only)
1-6-1 -5.07
Bet or Pass
Home Dog
1-1 0.00

April

Away Dog
18-21 +0.38
Home Dog
0-4 -4.0
Run Line
0-2 -2.00

Win Loss for Month -5.62

Totals Setups (for tracking only)
7-5-1 +1.83

NBA 2014

Playoffs

Home Favorite
1-0

Regular Season

Slight Edge 2
Home Fav
12-5-1
Road Fav
6-10-1

Slight Edge

Road Dog
13-5

Home Dog
1-5

PreSeason

Slight Edge
3-0

NHL 2014

Playoffs
Road Dog
3-4 +0.55

Slight Edge
25-45 -7.82

NCAA BB 2014

Post Season Tournaments
1 Unit
Fav
1-0
Dog
0-1

1/2 Unit
Fav
2-0
Dog
1-1
Bet or Pass
6-8

Post Season Conference Tournaments
1/2 Unit
3-3-1
Bet or Pass
3-2

1 Unit
Sides
6-3

1/2 Unit
Totals
25-17
Sides
Pick
1-0
Home Fav
3-5
Road Fav
2-0
Road Dog
34-26-3
Home Dog
19-12

Slight Edge
Sides
5-7
Totals
1-2

Bet or Pass
Road Dog
17-15
Home Dog
11-7
Neutral F
0-0-1
Home Fav
1-7-1
Road Favorite
2-1
Totals
Over
0-1
Under
2-1

MLB 2014-2015

Playoffs

Slight Edge
1-2 -.90

2nd half of season

1 Unit
Home Dog 5-6 -.24
Road Dog 1-3 -2.21
Under 0-2 -2.00

1/2 Unit
Home Dog 17-15 +3.73
Home Fav 8-3 +2.37
Road Dog 10-18 +.32
Road Fav 0-1 -.585
Run Line 1-2 -.37
Under 6-5 + .265
over 4-3 +.525

Slight edge
Home Dog 1-3 -131
Road Dog 1-3 -138
Home Fav 2-0 +200
Road Fav 0-1 -118
Under 3-0 +300

First Half of Season
1 Unit Plays
Home Dog
11-21 -6.66 Units
Away Dog
6-6 +2.15 Units

1/2 Unit Plays

OVER
1-0 +.54
Under
2-3 -.56
Away Dog
3-9 -2.535 Units
Home Dog
7-4 +2.05 Units
Home Fav
1-3 -1.34
Home Pick
0-1 -.51

Leans:

Home Dog
5-1 +513

Road Dog
3-2 +164

Home Fav
0-1 -182

Home Pick
0-1 -105

Slight Edges

OVER
0-1 -100

Road Dog
8-7 +371

Home Dog
16-15 +283

Home Fav
9-10 -275

Pick H
2-1 +95

NCAA Football 2014

Bowl Games
1 Unit
1-0
1/2 Unit
1-0

Bet or Pass
4-1

1 Unit
Home Fav 2-0
Home Dog 1-2
Away Dog 0-1

1/2 Unit
Home Dog 3-0
Road Dog 5-4
Road Fav 3-0
Home Fav 0-2

Slight Edge

Bowl Games
1-0

Reg Season
Road Dog 6-1-1
Home Dog 3-0

Pass or Bet
Bowl Games
Sides
2-1

regular Season
Side
10-10-1
Total
5-4

NFL 2014

Playoffs
1/2 Unit
2-1
Bet or Pass
1-1

Regular Season
1 Unit
Away Dog
2-3
Home Dog
4-2

1/2 Unit
Away dog
2-1-1
Home Dog
4-4

Slight Edge
Home Fav
1-2
Road Dog
1-2
Home Dog
4-2

Bet or Pass

Home Fav
1-2
Road Dog
5-6-1
Home Dog
7-3

Hilton NFL Contest Picks
49-31 61.25%
Hilton Contest top 5 Fade
31-40

Preseason
Sides
2-3

Totals
1/2 Unit
Over 0-2

NHL 2013

Playoffs

Plays
1/2 Unit
Road Dog
2-5 -.895 Units

Slight Edge
side
1-3 -253
total
0-1 -125
1/2 Unit Plays
9-9 +318

Leans
3-3 +125

Slight edge
1-0 +128

NBA 2013

Playoffs

Plays
1/2 Unit
Home Fav
4-7
Totals
Under
3-4
Over
1-2

Slight Edge
Sides
Road Dog
2-0
Home Fav
2-2
Totals
Under
2-4
Over
1-0

Last 3 weeks of the season:

Lean
Home Fav
4-2
Road Fav
5-6

Slight Edge
Road Fav
3-4
Road Dog
1-0

Home Fav
3-0

1 Unit Road Dog
9-15-1

1st Half(for tracking)
11-12

1/2 Unit Short Fav
1-0

Leans Totals
1-3

Leans Short Dog
0-2
Leans Road Dog
1-1
1st half
0-1
Leans Home Dog
1-0
1st Half
1-1
Leans Short Fav
1-2
1st half
1-0
Leans Home Fav
1-0

Leans combined
4-2

NCAA BB 2013

Plays
Sides
1 Unit
45-40-1

Totals
1 Unit
32-15

1st Half (for tracking) line =>+7
31-25-3

1/2 Unit
5-5
1st Half
6-3

Leans
7-9
Leans 1st HALF
5-6
Leans Totals
2-2

NFL 2012-2013

Hilton Contest
40-38-2

Plays
Sides
9-7-1
Totals
1-0

Totals Tracking setups

Totals
60+
1-1
55+
2-3

System 4
Sides:
1-1
Totals:
2-0

System X
Sides:
3-3-1
totals:
3-1

System 5
Sides
3-2-1
Totals
2-1

System 4 and X
Sides
1-1
Totals
1-0
System X and 5
Side
2-1-1
Totals
1-1
System 4 X and 5
Totals:
1-0

NFL Preseason

Sides 2-1
Totals 3-2

NCAA Football 2012

1 unit plays
Sides
11-14-1
Totals
2-0

1/2 unit plays
Sides
4-8

Bowl Games

1 Unit
1-0

1/2 Unit
1-2

Totals
2-2

Sys 4
Sides
13-7
Totals
5-7

Sys X
Sides
11-7
Totals
2-3

Sys 5
Sides 6-4
Totals 6-4

Combo
Sys X sys 5
Sides
3-1
Totals
1-0

Sys X sys 4
Sides
8-6

Sys 4 Sys 5
Sides
5-2
Totals
1-3

Sys 4 sys5 sys X
Sides
0-1
Totals
1-0

Major League Baseball 2013

Playoffs
all 1 unit plays
12-11 +2.66

2nd Half of season
1 Unit Plays
Home Dog <150 Home Fav 1/2 Unit plays Home Dog (<150) 12-24 -10.53 Sept Home Dog 5-4 +1.32 Home Fav (<-150) 4-5 -1.63 Tracking 11-12 -3.91 Road Dog C 2-9 -5.23 Tracking 5-4 +6.47 Totals: 5-8-3 -4.65 Tracking 1-2 -1.15 2nd Half -17.23 Road Dog Totals ALL Sides 1 Unit 1/2 Unit 2-0 +2.00 Totals Tracking Home Dog <=30% <+150 32-37 +0.69 Tracking Sept Home dog 8-6 +2.82 Tracking Road Dog Tracking setups Setups A : 50-44 +18.18 Setups B: Tracking Home Pick Setups 0-1 -104 Tracking Totals Setups I do not bet these SETUP A 0-1-1 -106 1st Half of season 1 Unit Plays Home Dog <150 4-5 +0.00 Home Fav 0-1 -1.11 1/2 Unit plays Home Dog (<150) 22-23 +1.41 Road Dog ( Under +150) 0-4 -4.00 Home Pick (-104 to +104) 4-1 +2.95 Home Fav <-150 7-5 +1.96 Away Fav <150 0-1 -1.12 Totals 1-0 +1.00 ALL Sides 1 Unit 4-6 -1.11 1/2 Unit 29-33 -1.50 Totals 1-0 +1.00 Tracking Sides Home setups: Setup A Home Fav 5-4 +0.11 Home Pick 0-3 -3.22 Tracking Sides Away Setups A : 4-6 -1.07 Setups B: 1-1 +0.29 Setups C 2-1 +3.52 Tracking Totals Setups I do not bet these SETUP A 27-26-2 -1.74 SETUP B 19-11 +7.17 Tracking RUN LINE Setups I do not bet these 1-0 +1.65

NHL 2011-2012

Plays: 22-29 -2.04
Fav:
Dog: 22-29 -2.04
1/2 unit plays (startng 3/5)
5-9 -.75

Tracking plays:

System 4
-140 to +140
Fav 8-11 -4.26
Dog 21-33 -8.44

Other

Fav 2-1 +0.53
dog 17-37 -7.36

System 5
-140 to +140
5-1 +5.54
System 5A
1-1 +0.12
System 5B
6-3 +3.36

Other
1-3 -1.39
Fav
dog
1-3 -1.61

sys 4 and 5 match

-140 to +140

Other:
1-1 +.61

NBA 2012 -2013

Post Season Tracking Plays ( I do not bet these)
Sides 6-8
Totals 11-8

Regular Season
Betting

1 Unit
2-3

1/2 Unit
Sides 18-9-2
Totals 0-1

Money Line Tracking Setups ( I do not bet these)
0-1 -100

Totals tracking setups (I do not bet these)

2-2

Tracking
1 unit plays
6-2
1/2 unit plays
3-3

Preseason Tracking Plays ( I do not bet these)

Sides:
Favorites: 1-2
Dogs: 1-2

Totals: 1-2

College Hoops 2012-2013

Tournament Play
Sides
1/2 Unit
0-1
Totals
1/2 Unit
2-4

Money Line setups
1-0 +160

Conference Tournaments

Sides:
1 Unit Play
1-0
1/2 Unit Play
2-4

Totals 1/2 Unit

3-2

Conference Play
1 Unit
15-19
1/2 Unit
36-24-1

Totals
1/2 Unit
22-12

Short Dog Money line Tracking Plays
5-7 -0.62

PreConference play
1 Unit
15-18

1/2 Unit
Sides
18-20

Totals:
1 Unit
0-1
1/2 Unit
0-2

NFL 2011-2012

Picks 15-15

Hilton Nfl Contest
40-42-3

Tracking plays:
System 1
1-0
System 2
3-3
System 3
3-3
System 4
31-23
System 5
21-9-1
System 6
3-2
system 7
6-0
Two system Matches
9-6
Three system match
1-0

Ncaa Football 2011-2012

Regular Plays
11-4

1/2 unit plays
Sides
5-6
Totals
0-1

Tracking plays

System 1
Sides: 3-3
Totals: 2-2
Fav: 1-3
Dog 2-0

System 2
Sides: 4-4
Totals:
Fav
Dog 4-4

System3
Sides: 1-1
Dog 1-1

System 4
Sides: 64-54-1
Fav: 33-27-1
Dog 31-26
Bowl games
0-2

Totals:
26-37-2
After week 7
26-21-1
Bowl Games:
3-2

System 5
Sides 19-12-1
Totals 19-15-2
Fav:
Dog: 19-12-1
Bowl Games 4-2

System 6
sides 1-1
totals 1-4

System 7
10-11
Bowl Games 5-1

2 System Match
Sides 12-9
Totals 8-9-2
3 system match
Sides: 3-2
Totals:
4 system match:
1-0

MLB 2012

2nd half of the season
+3.95 units
1st half of season
-.36 Units
2012 season
+3.59 Units
World Series
1-0 +1.50 units

Plays

1 Unit
Home
19-16 +6.09
Away

Totals
10-12-2 -3.79

1/2 Unit size
Home
1-0 +1.00
Away
9-8 +4.96
Total

Totals
31-27-4

System setups
SysX sides
27-23 +14.32

SysX totals
31-29-4

Sys 4
Sides
Home
34-30 +10.00
Away
28-26 +5.75

Totals
40-42-5

Sys Y
Home
18-25 -4.92
Away
25-35 -5.10

1st half of season
PLAYS (bet 1/2 unit size for the season)
HOME
26-32 -0.96
AWAY
8-18 -5.88
Total
34-50 -6.81
Totals:
14-7 +6.45
A system X subset....(backtests at 55%)
12-4 75%
First week....a different methodology(abandoned early)
2-3

System setups
SysX sides
29-37 -0.18

SysX totals
34-31-4

Sys 4
Sides 55-92 -29.12
Totals
59-44-6 57.28%

Sys Y
1-2 -.78

NHL 2011-2012

NHL Playoff Tracking setups
5-11 - 3.26

1/2 Unit Plays
Dogs
23-27 +3.85
Fav
3-5 -3.01

Total:
26-31 +0.85

Totals (Tracking Plays)
11-11-3 -1.97

NBA 2011-2012

NBA Playoffs:

Plays:
Sides 3-0 +2.00
Totals 2-0 +2.00

System 4
Sides
1-0 +1.00
Totals
2-0 +1.00

System X
sides
Totals
1-0 +1.00

SysX
Sides 2-4
Totals 8-10

Sys 1A
1-2
Sys 1B
0-1

Sys 4
Before all star game
sides 14-9-1
totals 18-8-1
After all star game -5.0 units Lost
sides 17-16
Totals 22-31

Sys 5A
Sides: 0-2
Totals: 2-1

Sys 5B
Sides: 0-4
Totals: 6-1

sys 5C
Sides
2-1

Totals
3-4
sys7A
1-1

Sys 7B
10-5

College Hoops 2011-2012

March Madness
Sys X
4-2
SysX totals +.5 units
2-1
Sys 5B
2-5
Sys5A
1-2
Reg tr setups
2-1

Rest of Season
1 unit plays
34-20

1/2 unit plays
20-31-2

System X(1/2 unit)

Sides 44-33-2
Total 4-4-1
Totals while tracking 14-18-1 bets 1-1

Fav 9-12-2
Dog 30-12
Pick to 1.5 4-9

System 1A
6-6

system1B3

3-3-1

System 1C
1-0

System 4
1-1

Sys 5A
25-15
Totals
4-4

System 5B
13-28-2
Totals
6-9

System 5C
12-8
Totals
3-8

System7A
6-7
System 7B
4-2

Reg Tracking Plays(I do not bet these)
74-84-3

Pre Conference Play

1 unit plays
26-15-1 63.4%
Dogs
20-9
Fav
3-4
Short dogs:
1-4

1/2 unit plays
Dogs
4-3
Short Dogs
0-2
Fav
0-2

Tracking plays pre conference:

Sides
system 1A
4-2
system1B
4-0
System 4
13-13

System 5
1-1
system 5A
6-0
system 5B
15-11
system 5C
2-8-1

System 6
0-1

System 7
7-1
System 7A
0-1
System7B
0-1

Totals:

system 5A
1-1
system 5B
1-4

System 5C
6-3

Major League Baseball 2011

April 18-10 +11.64
May 8-14 -4.56
June 14-22 -5.09
July 14-16 +1.83
Aug 16-27 -7.47
Sept 11-18 -3.76
Postseason: 0-1 -1.00

Total: 81-109 -8.50

Other Sides( for tracking not wagering)
Home Favorite 22-19 +0.25
Home Dog 0-1 -1.00
Road Dog 6-6. +2.50
Total 28-24 +2.75

Totals: (for tracking not wagering)
9-9-1 -0.95

NHL 2010-11 Record

Picks 57-58 +5.45

Nba 2010-2011 Record

Sides 14-22 38.88%

Totals 24-22-1 52.17%

2010-11 NCAA HOOPS RECORD

Total sides: 100-82-5 54.94%

WNBA 2011

WNBA (For tracking purposes only)(I do not bet these)
Home Favorites
0-1
Road Favorites
0-5
Short Road Favorites (up to -6.5)
0-3
Short Home Favorites
3-4
Short Road Dogs
0-1
Short home dogs
1-0

Total:
4-14

2011 Swing trades

76 trades 817730 -429.00 +0.005% 9 Open

Closed trades:

45-21
Largest profit 14.26%
Largest Loss -6.46%

Trade length

Same Day 1 trade
1 days 5 trade
2 days 2 trade
3 days 10 trades
4 days 6 trades
5 days 9 trades
6 days 9 trade
7 days 7 trade
10 days 6 trade
11 days 3 trade
13 days 2 trade
14 days 4 trade
30 days 2 trade

For a detailed trade by trade spreadsheet see link on site.

2010 NFL Record

Picks 20-11 64.51%

MLB 2010 Record

Plays 29-28 +13.32
Leans 50-55 +5.28

2010 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD

Picks 18-15-1 54.54%

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