November 26, 2015 6:28 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in College Basketball,College Football,NBA,NHL

Wednesday was a busy day. We went 4-2 on our College Hoop Totals. 1-1 on our NHL Plays and 1-0 on our NBA Play. Our NBA Setup was also a winner! In the NHL both were dogs so we picked up .20 in the NHL. 2 units in college hoops and 1 unit in the nba.

College hoops has been coming along nicely this season. NBA has been spot on. Not many plays or setups but when they develop they have been winning. And the NHL…..a grind of course but a positive one. I could not be any happier with the way things have developed since turning my plays into a subscriber based system. It allows me to spend more time with my handicapping and also spend more money on software and hardware in addition to getting much more detailed data to work with. I really appreciate the subscribers as it allows me to spend more time on what I enjoy most….Handicapping!

Its not too late to sign on. This is the ideal time as you have all the major sports except baseball going right now. I do not charge per sport like most services do. But only per month. So you can pick and choose what sports you want to follow at a very low cost.

Enough promoting. Today is Thanksgiving and I will be traveling today. For subscribers I will have my Ipad with me and also will have Wifi on the plane so we should not miss a beat on plays. I will be sending the plays out all day. I also will be traveling back on Saturday but the same thing. We should not miss anything.

Today 3 NFL Games to watch:


Betting is 64% on Detroit today with the line moving with the betting from Phil -1 to Detroit -2.5. My models have the number to bet just right at -2.5. Variables are split on the game pointing to both sides. The game is as close to a tossup for me as any of the games today. A clear cut pass


Betting is 71% on Carolina with the line moving with the betting from -1.5 to -1. Models favor Carolina. Variables strongly favor Dallas. In addition you have 71% of the betting on the dog! As you know if you have been following me that is a big red flag if you like the dog. However my models have been pretty accurate this season and it has kept me away from some losing plays. And today might be one of them as they favor Carolina. I am going to pass on the game but I really have to use all my will power not to bet Dallas! Again a Pass

Green Bay

Betting is 61% on Green Bay with the line staying steady at -8. It was -8.5 yesterday. Models slightly favor green bay. Variables strongly favor the Bears. This is again a situation where the models are keeping me away from the bears. However I did put the bears +8.5 in the hilton contest. But it was tied for 4 and 5. Far away from the top 3. So I will be routing for Chicago today but not betting them. A Pass again.

It will be interesting to see if the models steered me away from winners today.

Also we have two games today in College Football:

Texas Tech

Betting is 72% on Texas tech and the line has moved with the betting from -1 Texas to -1 Texas Tech. Models slightly favor Texas Tech. Variables are neutral. This game is a pass

S. Florida
C. Florida

Betting is 84% on S. Florida with the line moving with the betting from -22.5 to -23. Models are neutral, variables are neutral. Despite only 17% of the betting on C. Fla this game is a pass. No edge I can see on the game.

Best of luck today! And subscribers again I will be sending out plays 1 to 10 min before game times.

twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)
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1:55 Update

Tuesday we went 1-3 on our college hoop totals. We lost our first because of OT:( The other two were lost by less then a bucket! But today we are 2-1 so far in College totals with more to come. For subscribers you can see that the books have got the numbers down pretty close right now so its important that you not take any worse then the line I post. The line was moving quite a bit the last few years when all the picks were free. But now you have time to get down so no need to chase.

That is one of the advantages of being a subscriber during college hoops. You do not have to race to get down on these plays. Before you only had seconds to get down!

No College football tonight but 3 NFL games tomorrow. I am still looking the games over. Another tough week. Also I will be traveling but will attempt to post something on the games.

Also its still very early in the college hoop season so if you have any inclination at all just sign up using the top right paypal button and pick the subscription you would like. The amount I charge is peanuts compared to what most of the services charge. Many charge 1500 per sport per season. Some only 999 per sport per season. Which can cost you upwards of 2 to 3 thousand a year. For my service you only have to subscribe monthly so you can pick the months you with to join that covers the sports your interested in. If you have any questions just let me know. But all the plays are delivered through my private twitter feed which you can then have sent to your phone or email!

Another good discussion with a subscriber to share:

“Rick couple questions on ROI in sports are you looking for about 5%? And how many bets a year do you think you make of your standard 1 unit or 2% of bankroll? I am doing some math I have a 60k roll for sports and I am betting 1000 a game currently I am thinking about going to 1100 or 1200 a game but I am also a little more risk adverse than some. Also there was a total today you had Pepperdine u154.5 think it landed on 154 by the time I got to it was at 153.5 and I reluctantly bet it and lost I think it landed on 154 I didn’t even look cause I was sick about it but at what point should I just pass on a game you put out when the line moves? Thanks for all your help”

My response:

“5% would be the upper end. Also it depends on the sport. Basketball that is obtainable. Football used to be but things have changed a bit as I have mentioned many times on the blog. NHL more like 2 or 3% . MLB similar to NHL but even tougher. There is no easy money here its a grind like all types of positive ev gambling!

As far as the lines. I would highly recommend if you cannot get the line I put out pass on the game. There are plenty of plays no reason to lose a play because you took the worst of the line. That is why it is important to have a few different outs for your wagers.

Finally if 60000 is an amount you could lose completely and not be effected either financially or emotionally then fine. However if either of the above is not true you need to get the amount at risk in line. When your gambling you always have to consider a very bad run. When I played poker full time I experienced those about every 3 years.

As far as bet sizing. Just use 2% of your bankroll. Then adjust the bet size by the size of your bankroll. 2% is a good number to use as it adjusts fast enough but not too fast on drawdowns. Huge difference when you use 3%.

I hope that helps. If you have any other questions do not hesitate to ask.”

Good Luck Tonight

The markets this morning are up slightly 50 min before the open. Typically the Wednesday before Thanksgiving is a bullish day and that is what I am anticipating. The scenario would be a gap higher and a run to +100 or more by the end of the day. What we are not in typical times right now with Americans being warned about the risk of terrorist attacks both out of the U.S. and in the U.S. I myself will be traveling inside the U.S.

I wish the best for everyone over the Thanksgiving Holiday season. This is really a time to be thankful we all live in the U.S. where so far the insanity of the world around us has been for the most part kept off our shores.

I am long a portfolio of stocks and have taken off most of the covered calls anticipating a strong year end rally. This is the most positive seasonality you will get in the markets from here to year end. I want to try to take advantage of it if it happens. Also I am in 13 swing trade longs. This is on the high side for me but they triggered and again the wind should be at our backs for awhile.

As far as the Fed everyone is anticipating a rate hike in December so that surprise is off the table. The only positive surprise will be to the upside of they do not raise rates. Note the ECB is lowering rates and have announced no intention of tightening any time soon. So I guess the question is why is the Fed intent on raising rates right now. Myself I have no idea. If terrorism isnt kept in check the world is going to experience a global depression not seen in some time. Tourism is drying up to Europe right now let alone in other parts of the world. This will have a profound impact next year.

Enough for the good news….lets see how the markets do today!
If you want to follow my swing trades just send an invite to RICKJSWINGS for a two week free trial.

For those of you whose trial is running out you can sign up for 24$ a month through Paypal. Just send to my email address: [email protected]

twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)


3:45 Update

Two games tonight in College football:

Bowling Green
Ball State

Betting is 72 % on the road favorite with the line moving from -21 to -23. Models slightly favor Ball State. Variables are Neutral on the game. This game is a pass for me. Nothing much to go on.

N. Illinois
Betting is 67% on the home favorite with the line moving away from the betting from -13 to -12. Models favor N. Illinois. Variables slightly favor Ohio. Again not much to go on. A pass for me.

Good Luck Tonight which ever side you choose!

10:45 Update

A good day for plays yesterday going 4-1-1 in college Hoop Plays. 1-0-1 on sides and 3-1 on Totals. In the NHL our plays went 1-1 for a +.42 day in the NHL.

Also our setup in the NBA was an easy winner.

Get on board for all the plays as its shaping up to be a great season. Just it the paypal button on the upper right and pick the subscription plan you want. Then follow @rick_sports and I will add you to my private twitter feed where you receive my Hilton NFL Picks early, All plays and All setups daily!

Subscribers I will be sending out plays about 2 to 10 min before game times.

Good Luck Today

Well you would think you could go to sleep at night with the world safe and secure. That everyone lived in harmony respecting their fellow humans. After all we are all human aren’t we?? So waking up this morning to the headlines that Turkey shot down a russian plane was more then a little disconcerting. For a number of reasons. 1. the market is off and that is costing me money 2. Wasnt Russia helping the World with leading the attacks on Isis? Sure they have their own agenda but certainly in part they are doing everyone a big favor. So then why would a NATO partner shoot down a Russian plane? That is what the market is trying to figure out. I have my own opinions but you will need to ask the Kurds for a more intelligent response.

So are the markets going to fight this bad news and head up on what is usually a strong thanksgiving week? The market is about 8 pts off its lows of the night and trying to rebound. We are 10 min ahead of the open and will have a gap down. I suspect its a buyable gap as long as nothing else comes from the incident.

I am long both portfolios stocks and now nine swing trades. I will be looking to put on more swing trades if they trigger today. Lets keep our fingers crossed that sane people prevail in Nato and Russia and get this worked out.In addition hopefully our government can quite bashing Russia for a week or so. This is no time to humiliate Putin after this incident. Thats my two sense for what it is worth:)
If you want to follow my swing trades just send an invite to RICKJSWINGS for a two week free trial.

For those of you whose trial is running out you can sign up for 24$ a month through Paypal. Just send to my email address: [email protected]

twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)



November 23, 2015 6:10 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in College Basketball,College Football,INVESTING,NBA,NFL,NHL

3:50 Update

Sunday we went 1-3 on Plays. College hoop totals went 1-1. Sides 0-1 and NHL Sides 0-1. We had two setups in the NFL on totals and they were both good….2-0.

So far today its looking like two winners one on a college hoop total and the other on a college hoop side thats if Wake Forest can hang on and cover the 13. They are only down by 1 now with two min left!

Also for subscribers I just sent out two totals. If you did not receive them let me know right away.

In the NFL I went 3-2 in the Hilton contest for the weekend.

Tonight 1 game in the NFL:

New England
Betting is 69% on the home favorite with the line moving from -7.5 to -7. Models favor New England and Variables favor Buffalo. Not much edge I can see on either side. A pass for me.

Its early in the college hoop season , only the first week, so now is the time to join the service to get all plays via my private twitter feed. You also get my Hilton picks early and in addition get all the setups. Just hit the paypal button and pick the subscription you wish. Hope to see you on board!

As we enter thanksgiving week the world is in turmoil. Lets all hope that this time next year everything has passed and the world has settled down. Its a long shot to say the least but perhaps a leader will emerge from the politicians that will lead America out of the mess it finds itself in and unite everyone together to deal with whatever comes our way.

So the strongest seasonally of the year has arrived and has started off with the market skyrocketing last week. We find ourselves a bit overbought but not so much. The Market 30 min before the open finds itself a little lower. Overnight low on the ES was around 2082. I have no idea how the shootings in New Orleans last night will effects the markets today. I suspect we will have to wait until they find out who the shooters were and their motivation. Randomly firing into people celebrating at a park? Depressing to say the least.

I am long a portfolio of stocks with some covered calls and have 5 swing trades at present and looking to add more. This is the time of year you want to get more aggressive in your swing trades. You have very positive seasonality at your back. Of course you still have to keep a sane money management in place. Especially with the volitile world situation.

My guess is maybe a little consolidation with a rally to new highs by year end.

If you want to follow my swing trades just send an invite to RICKJSWINGS for a two week free trial.

For those of you whose trial is running out you can sign up for 24$ a month through Paypal. Just send to my email address: [email protected]

twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)



November 22, 2015 7:38 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in College Basketball,College Football,NBA,NFL,NHL

4:30 Update

Well looks like I am 2-2 in the hilton contest going into this evenings game. I have Cinci +5 in the Hilton contest but its far from a play or a setup as were the rest.


Betting is 57% on Arizona with the line moving from -3.5 to -4. My models strongly favor Cinci and variables are completely neutral on the game. So I will be wanting Cinci to cover tonight but for me the game is a Pass. Sort of boring passing on all the NFL games today but I really am not that much of a gambler:)

Good luck tonight which ever side you choose!

9:40 Update

An interesting game this morning in the NFL.
St Louis

Betting is 52% on the Road Dog but the line has moved from Baltimore +1 to Baltimore -3. Now that is quite a move especially considering only 48% of the betting is on Baltimore. This means to me that some well respected bettors are betting on Baltimore for the books to move the line all the way to -3 without the public pounding the game. As it turns out my models show -3 to be about right! Variables however are split on the game. I am passing on the game.

Not a very good day for plays on Saturday. NHL went 0-2 College Hoops went 1-2 Ncaa Football 0-1.
Setups were NCAA FB 1-4. We were rolling along and then a losing day. This is the nature of sports betting. However if you graph your plays the line should have an upward bias after say 100 to 200 wagers. If not then you need to reevaluate.

I had a few later games in college football I was looking at but Hawaii only had 18% of the betting on them but the line dropped from +10 to +7.5. California was another I was looking at but the line again dropped from +12 to +10 despite 72% of the betting on Stanford. Staying away turned out to be the right approach as both would of lost. We really are seeing a huge difference this year with most of the big moves going against the big public favorites. I hope this tendency is short lived:)

Saying that their is only one way to bet these plays. Set aside a bankroll you can afford to lose with no sweat. Then have a unit size of 2% of your bankroll on each wager. Do not pick and choose unless you have a history of being a successful handicapper. Then you can use my in put as filters for your methods. But considering about 98% of the public lose overall betting on sports I would strongly suggest the 2% number and then your wagers rise and fall depending on your bankroll.

Many gamblers like to press when they are winning. Many press when their losing. Many go through emotional ups and downs with their gambling. You need to put all of this aside….these are the marks of people that are not successful gamblers. Betting on sports is a methodical routine that requires iron clad discipline.

The last thing I am going to share with you today is that if you have ever seen the movie with James Caan “the gambler” you should watch it. Its about as accurate depiction of a compulsive gambler that you will ever see in the movies and its a great movie. But the overall theme which the lead character admits is most gamblers have an innate desire to lose…its a self destructive part of their personality. To be successful you have to deal with that aspect of your personality. Those of us that are drawn to gambling tend to have that in the dark deep recesses of ourselves. Successful gamblers recognize this and deal with it. Playing poker in Vegas for the last twelve years reinforces the truth of the above for me. I see people with substantial skills blow off their money because they have not figured it out.

So the good part of the method of betting I am suggesting is it takes the guesswork out of how much to wager and it also requires you to have discipline. Its tempting after a 0-5 run to press it up. Thats human nature. But you have to get “human nature” under control to have a chance. Back when I started this website over twelve years ago I wrote a section called “required reading”. Its on the top and everyone should read it.

Now let me mention. I consider myself an expert on human nature. I was a trial attorney for over 30 years in addition to being around gamblers full time for the last twelve years. I am available for coaching free of charge if you want advice or need a bit of help putting things into perspective. Just drop me an email and we can either communicate that way or via skype.

So on to the NFL:

My hilton picks this week
Tenn +3
Detroit +2
Denver +1
Minn -1
Cinci +5

Let me mention this week nothing was clear cut. There was no one game that stood out. I cannot remember a week like this. I have started out losing with Tenn +3 so need a 3-1 day to have a winning weekend in the nfl in the hilton contest.

The hilton top 5 this week
Green Bay

Last week they went 3-2 and this season 28-21-1

Public numbers:

Oakland 72
Dallas 70
Jets 69
Carolina 63
Seattle 57
Phil 56
Green Bay 55
Arizona 55
Atlanta 54
St Louis 53
KC 51
Bears 50

Reverse Line Moves

For subscribers I will be sending out plays 1 to 10 min before game times.

College hoops has just started in addition we still have much of the NFL, College football, NHL and NBA to go. To sign up for plays sent out through my private twitter feed just hit the paypal button on the top right and then follow @rick_sports. Be sure and send me your twitter handle so I can then add you to the private feed.

Good Luck Today

twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)
Private Twitter: rick_sports



November 21, 2015

2:15 Update Several games tonight with ranked teams in College Football: #10 Baylor #6 Oklahoma State Betting is 68% on the Home Dog with the line moving from -1 OKL State to -2.5 Baylor. Thats quite a move considering only 32% of the betting is on Baylor. At some books the line has moved to […]

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November 20, 2015

3:40 Update Two games tonight in College Football Cinci S Florida Betting is even 50 50 on the game with the line moving from -3 to -2 on the road favorite. Models slightly favor S. Florida and variables are neutral. Nothing I can see at all on the game that leads me to either side. […]

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November 19, 2015

3:50 Update Wednesday we went 3-1 on our plays with college hoop sides going 1-0 and totals 2-1. There was a play earlier that was an easy winner..and there should be at least one more play tonight. I will send it out to subscribers in about an hour or so. 3 football games tonight. NFL […]

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November 18, 2015

2:40 Update Tuesday we went 0-2 on our College hoop plays. We had Texas San Antonio +19 and also the under on the game and it went the other way …creighton and over. Neither side was close. So College hoops are coming a bit back to earth after a 7-1 run. Tonight there will be […]

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November 17, 2015

2:40 Update On Monday plays went 2-2 with the NHL going 0-2 and College hoop totals going 2-0 bringing college hoops off to a fast 7-1 start! To subscribe to plays just hit the paypal button on the upper right and pick the subscription you wish. Then send me your twitter handle and follow @rick_sports. […]

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November 16, 2015

3:20 Update Sunday we went 2-2 on our plays with Cleveland +6.5 losing in the NFL but the colleges totals put in a respectable 2-1 day. College plays now are 5-1 for the season!! Now I remember what it was like the last two seasons in college hoops. I will be sending out plays to […]

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November 15, 2015

4:00 Update One more game tonight in the NFL Arizona Seattle This is my fifth pick in the Hilton contest…Seattle -3 and I need this game for a 4-1 day for hilton picks! Betting is 55% on the road dog and the line has stayed pretty steady at -3. Models favor Seattle variables are split […]

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