Did Yellen save the day???

3:15 Update

I was asked about the indiana Iowa game tonight so thought I would share my comments on the game:

“Hey Rick, probably too early to tell right now but I was wondering if you could give me your thoughts on the iowa @ Indiana men’s bball game later”

My Response

“that’s an usual game…line opened at -1 now -3 and will most likely go to -3.5 with only 40% of the betting on Indiana. A good game to stay away from
too late to bet indiana
and would not want to go with iowa and 61% of the bettors
that’s my take on the game”

As a subscriber you have the ability to get opinions regarding games. Even if the game is not a play or setup.

1:10 Update

Wednesday we went 3-0 on our plays. We had 3.5, 4.5 and 9 pt dogs and all three not only covered but won the game outright! Now that is what I enjoy seeing:) Two of the plays were in college hoops with Tulane and Tulsa and the other was in the NBA with Charlotte.

We had two setups and they both lost.

We are back to flirting with 60% in college hoops at 92-63 or 59.35%. Lets see if we can break the 60% level and stay there for the rest of the college hoop season:)

If you have been looking over the site and you can see slowly I have making improvements. The right side now has a much easier to read history for past results. In addition I have included some links for services I recommend. I am in the process of redoing my investment links as the ones before were quite outdated.

Let me know if there are any other features you would like to see here.

Remember the stock trading portion of this site is now free. So if you have an interest in following along with my trades and comments throughout the trading day you can sign on to my private twitter feed at rickjswings. I am usually available during the trading hour for questions.

As to the handicapping portion if you have an interest we are only a few weeks before tournament time. A good time now to join us for the final portion of the college hoop season. Its only a small monthly subscription and includes all sports covered during the subscription period. Just hit the paypal portion on the upper right and join a great group of handicappers! Hope to see you.

For subscribers plays will be posted 5 to 16 min before game times.

Good Luck Tonight

Rick

If you just woke up and wanted to find out if Yellen testifying in front of Congress Wednesday calmed the markets take a look at the Globex 1.5 hours before the open. Down almost 2%!!!

I wonder what Yellen thinks her job description is. What was even more alarming then her having no desire to calm the financial markets was her lack of knowledge in answering questions. When asked about negative interest rates she said that she was not sure whether she could do that legally! If the head of the federal reserve does not know what she can and cannot do look out below.

Not much more to say then if your heavily invested right now my condolences. In the past you could count on the Fed to calm things down. To allay investors fears. Since after all how goes the U.S. financial markets goes the worlds financial markets. And that is why the Fed is being begged by other countries not to raise rates.

But we have one more day of Yellen today and I am quite confident with the market off 2% that the questions will be even more heated this morning. The trade today might be to get long on the open or get long on the break of the overnight lows and hold until end of day. If you get any hitch by Yellen, any softening of the rhetoric, any glimpse that she will do what ever it takes to maintain liquidity in the markets and prevent deflation then we could get a monster rally. If on the other hand she maintains her hawkish views that might just already be built into the markets today and we might get a rally anyway.

Its a high risk play but one that seems pretty logical to me. If the premiums are not too far out of line you could even try calls or shorting puts on spy. I am going to give it some thought and figure out my game plan before the market opens.

I am flat now exiting two mean reversion trades yesterday after seeing the weakness that was obvious in the markets. Unfortunately one of my trades had a bad earnings release and I took a 15% hit on the trade:( But had a 3% gain on the other one. I was asked if I typically traded on earnings release days. Breakout trades I do not. But mean reversion trades typically surprises are on the up side since the stock is beaten down by virtue of making the trade. This one just did not work out.

These are very tricky times now. Its important to maintain focus and not get out of line!

My private investing tweets are now gratis. So if you have any desire to follow along just follow @rickjswings and I will add you to the private feed.

And by the way 3-0 yesterday on handicapping plays. We had 3 dogs and all three won the game. One was a 9 pt dog:)
More on that later today

Good Luck Trading today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: Rickjswings
Private Twitter: Rick_sports

CONTINUE READING

Will Yellen do it or not???

11:40 Update

Wednesday was a busy day with 5 plays and 3 setups. We went 2-3 on our plays winning our NBA play on Utah +1.5 , spliting our NHL plays with a win on San jose +125 and losing with Nashville -110, and finally losing both our college hoop plays. So when the smoke cleared we were down a little less then 1 unit for the day. Our setups in college hoops split and we had a setup in the NHL that lost.

Today a busy day that should result in several plays. I will post shortly before game times.

I have been asked about the difference between a play and a setup. The plays are the games I wager on as I feel they have a sold ev edge. The setups I feel have an edge but not enough to wager on. They should be used with your own handicapping techniques if your doing that.

Also I was pleasantly surprised to receive the following email yesterday:

“Hi Rick , I have been following you for 12 years. I have been handicapping for over 40 years. I finally decided to join up. Thank you for all of those years . My opinion is that the nba is the hardest to handicap and the easiest to me is football especially college . I could talk to you all day about handicapping, but I just wanted to tell you that I have been going against the public and taking home underdogs for years. Thanks again for all your hard work. You are the first handicapper I have followed for years and you are always above the 55 percent mark .”

Its great to get these type of messages from time to time!

Good Luck Tonight

Rick

The market is guessing this morning that Yellen’s testimony before Congress today and tomorrow is going to be dovish. The market 45 min before the open is up .75%. Myself I am not as confident that we are going to see a 180 with Yellen and she will all of a sudden go into free money mode. The best I think we can hope for is she will be noncommittal. If she goes hawkish then look out below.

In addition we have Fed Gov Williams to add clarity to everything at 10:30.

This is not the backdrop to be overloaded in. I have on two mean reversion trades and that is it. I doubt I will be adding to them today and if we get a monster rally off something Yellen says I am going to evaluate the trades at the end of the session.

Its really wishful thinking to come to the conclusion we have turned the corner. There is one indicator I think needs to trigger before you an even consider that possibility and that is the nasdaq leading the sp500 on a weekly basis. That indicator crossed down the 1st of the year and has not come close to a reversal so far this year. In addition the degree of lag is getting greater. So that is something we all should keep track of. Its about as good a timing signal as there is for short term reversals.

Now just so you do not get taken by surprise Yellen has already shown her hand and has indicated the risks are inflation related to growth! She certainly did not waste any time. No sugar coating. No calming the markets. One really has to wonder what is motivating this Fed. But rather then rehash my observations on the Fed lets just wait and see what the markets do. So far her testimony has not effected them which is a good sign.

For those of you that have been away from my site for a few days I have made the stock service non subscription. So my private feed is available to anyone that has an interest in following what I do in the markets. Just go to @rickjswings and follow and I will get you signed on. Also if anyone has any questions regarding my trading just send me an email.

I have been making some other changes to the site. So little by little you will see a new look to the site with much of the outdated content changed and links to services that might interest you added. I plan on adding some investment sites I believe are worth taking a look at also. Like I said little by little.

If there are any other changes that anyone has an interest in please let me know.

Good Luck Trading today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: Rickjswings
Private Twitter: Rick_sports

CONTINUE READING

Another miracle save in the markets

3:30 Update

Several top 25 match ups coming at 4:00

#8 Michigan St
#18 Purdue

Betting is 63% on Mich st and the line has moved quite a bit contrary to the betting. The line was pick and is now -3 purdue at many books. Its an interesting set of facts on this game in that the move is a big one from pick to 3. In addition we have it on against the #8 team in the country. The only thing that could cause something like this is a big handicapping service put purdue out as a play tonight. I checked for last min injuries and nothing there. Now usually I would looking for any excuse to bet on Purdue tonight with the setup that exists. But in this case the move is just too big to lay the 3 and I do not want to fade this either. So I am passing on the game. Will be interesting to see how it turns out.

#10 West Virginia
#6 Kansas

Betting is 52% on the home favorite Kansas and the line has stayed pretty solid at -7. What a boring set of circumstances compared to the previous game:) Needless to say I am pass on this game also.

3:10 Update

Monday we went 1-1 on our plays and 1-0 on our setups. We won with Portland +3.5 in the NBA and lost with New Jersey +150 in the NHL. We had a setup in the NBA on the lakers Under and it was an easy winner.

Looking over tonight it looks like 2 or 3 plays so far. Its still an hour before game times but there are a number of games tonight that show some promise. I will send out plays shortly before game time.

Also as I mentioned earlier today my mean reversion and break out trades will be sent out at no charge. I have refunded last months subscription payment to all subscribers. I simply at this time do not want the extra work that goes along with sharing my picks on a subscription basis. There will be some days I am traveling and some days I might just decide to sleep in. But the end result is it became too much work for me. The handicapping really is a full time job! But I will continue sharing my trades and also exchanging trading ideas. All you need do is follow @rickjswings and I will add you to the private feed.

The handicapping picks and setups however will remain subscription based. I am spending way to much and working way to much to not give part of my costs back via a subscription based site. But the cost is really nominal compared to any other service out there and not only that I would not hesitate to match my results with any that are out there for 3 times the cost of mine.

So if you would like to join us on our handicapping journey do not hesitate to hit the paypal button and come along.

Hope to see you as a member to our group.

Rick

It was looking grim about an hour before the close on Monday. Markets were down over 300 pts and it was looking like a bloodbath going into the close. But a miracle happened and out of nowhere a monster late rally left the markets down only about 180 and everyone was happy! And for candlestick lovers we have a nice hammer formation on the daily chart. That should get everyone’s blood boiling:)

But as the markets tend to do they are ignoring the Hammer and are going to gap down over 1% this morning. So for everyone that thought the coast was clear….think again.

I think we are very close to a short term rally. As always the character of the rally is what counts. One and done and we plunge down to new lows. My thinking is we get a rally most likely mid day today and then it gets destroyed when Yellen shares her wisdom with Congress. Now that only leaves at best a 2 day rally. Another scenerio is we fall until Yellen talks and then she gives some words of comfort and we rally. But that is wishful thinking considering the Fed has not hid its strong bias (right or wrong) at raising rates.

So no scenario seems to be very good right now. Maybe we just plunge lower? Its at best a guessing game but right now the odds favor some type of bounce the next few days. With this gap down this morning the odds have increased quite a bit for a bounce. So thats the way I am going to play it. I have several stocks lined up for mean reversion trades today. And we are not far off from a mean reversion index trade.

I am flat right now and sleeping like a baby!

In addition I have made a decision not to charge for this portion of my service. The sports plays and setups remain the same but the investing portion where you can see what I am doing day to day in the markets will now be free.

For subscribers I am going to refund your last subscription payment regardless of when it was made. From here on out rickjswings twitter feed will be open for anyone that wishes to follow my trades and comments.

Everyone that is part of the stock service is also a member of the sports service. Thats the least I can do to show my appreciation for your confidence in me as a handicapper.

So the only change is the stock subscription will be free. And of course I will still be around during the mornings for questions about trades and the markets.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: Rickjswings
Private Twitter: Rick_sports

CONTINUE READING

Another start to an enjoyable day in the Markets

3:30 Update

Sunday there were no plays but we did have a setup in the NFL and it won easily with Denver +5.5.

Today a light schedule in college hoops but its looking like unlike yesterday there will be several plays tonight.

I have been asked by several people where the paypal button is on the site. Also where are the historical results. If your on a desktop computer you should have no problem finding everything. But its set up a bit different for mobile screens. That supposed to be one of the advantages of the new hosting software. It of course has its advantages and disadvantages. But if your on a mobile device there should be a menu on the upper right of your screen that will give you access to all areas of the site.

Or your browser should have the option to view the site in full site mode. Then you should see the site exactly as the desktop version.

Nothing like new technology to make things so much easier:)

If anyone has any difficulties just let me know.

Subscribers I will be sending out it looks like two plays shortly before 4

Also while I am at it #1 Oklahoma is at home against unranked texas. Betting is 59% on Oklahoma with the line moving from -8 to -7.5 . Not much to see here the betting is under 60% and there is nothing that I see that points to either side.

The other ranked team playing tonight is #19 Louisville at unranked Duke. Betting is 52 % on the Home Favorite Duke and the line has moved from -4.5 to -3.5. Again even less to go by on this game. No extremes and nothing pointing to either side.

Good luck tonight

RickJ

Waking up this morning after a successful Denver prediction yesterday I am looking at a sea of RED on my trading screen. But there are a few positives. China markets are closed this week for the Chinese New Year. So we do not have to look at 5 to 10 percent moves every day there. But other then that not much looks bright and sunny. The Dax is off close to 2.7% as I speak and U.S. Futures are looking to gap down over 1%.

But there is hope this week. Our savior the Fed is going to set things straight Wednesday and Thursday with no one other the Yellen testifying before Congress. For those of you masochists just sign on to watch while your trading:) My guess is the Fed stays the course and will not back off rate hikes in March. At this point there is nothing I can see that would get the Fed back to reality. They are on a course that is about as certain then can be to plunge the U.S. into a strong recession.

What is amazing is we are not there yet nor are the leading indicators close to triggering a recession. But they can change on a dime and if the Fed keeps sucking liquidity out of the system it might be overnight. This has a very similar feel to 2008. What has not happened yet is the effect of the plunging oil prices has not triggered defaults in the oil business much yet. But its coming and banks are as over leveraged with the oil industry as they were in housing back in 2008. If something does not change this will make 2008 look like a blip.

To throw fire on the flames our leader President Obama announced his plans to have a %10.00 a barrel tax on oil companies. One thing we can be certain of at this point is the Fed and the rest of the decision makers in the government are not coming to the rescue this time. In addition they are assuring the economic distress that is soon to come.

Now this does not even take into consideration the effect that low oil prices is going to have on world stability. For many of the countries that rely on oil revenue the leaders longevity depends on the oil revenues. So when these get to critical levels the only other alternatives is to stoke nationalistic themes and lead the world close to war. Thats been a recurring theme as long as the world has existed.

So what is one to do. This is the time to be very defensive in your trading and investments in general. Maybe we will dodge the bullet yet once again but this is not going to happen unless the Fed gets with the program. So they are the ones to monitor. At this point its probably the only thing that matters. If you dont think there is some truth to that just ask the holders of Lnkd that gaped down about 50%!

I am flat. I had on a number of short trades that I exited on Friday toward the close. Do today I look for mean reversion trades. Depending on the internals I might wait to place trades at the end of the day. The markets on this gap down will be very very close to mean reversion territory.

I will update towards the end of the trading day.

Good Luck Trading today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)
Private Twitter: Rick_sports

CONTINUE READING

Finally its here…..SuperBowl Sunday!!! A full RickJ rundown below

Saturday was a busy day with plays as we had 6 plays spread out over 3 sports. In college hoops we went 3-1 and continue our flirtation of breaking the 60% barrier again with a win rate of 59.60% on 151 plays for the season. Not many can do that year in and year out:) Our winning plays were on Marquette +12, Kansas St +4.5 and Notre Dame +2.5 We lost with Depaul +11.5. 2 of our plays were against the #1 and #2 teams in college hoops and not only did we cover fading the top 2 teams but we won both outright! In the NHL we lost with Minn +120 and in the NBA we lost with Detroit +4.5.

Now on to the good stuff. The Superbowl. The game where sports bettors all over the world line up at the sports books to make wager 10x their usually betting size to satisfy there primal urges to gamble. Well if you must do that let me try to give you some type of framework to consider before you spend your hard earned money on one NFL Game:)

Here is how I look at the game and decide what I want to do (either wager or not wager)

1. I take a look at the numbers to see if there are any clues as to where the right side might be on the game

A. Clue 1: 65% of the betting is on Carolina on massive betting volume. That is a pretty high number for the Superbowl. Typically my rule is if that if its 2 to 1 on a side of the game I really want to avoid being on that side. The higher the ratio the more I want to avoid the side. For instance New England Denver was 3 to 1.

B. Clue 2: The next thing I look at is what has the line been doing in relation to the % number. The two books I tend to look at for this is Pinnacle and Cris. On Pinnacle the line opened at -3.5 -105 and is now -5+100. On Cris -4-116 and is now -5.5-105. So the line has moved with the betting but not over any key numbers.

C. Clue 3: How high has the line been before game time. I like to take a look at this as it gives me an idea where the “sharps” are jumping into the betting. In this instance they did not start getting involved until a few days ago where there were as many +6 as +5.5. You can see its even more prevalent on Pinnacle where you can Lay the five even money.

D. Clue 4: What do my models tell me. My models say the line should be a tad under +3. That seems reasonable and falls in line with my view that typically when the betting % gets in the 2 to 1 area not only do the books shade the opener but they do not mind moving it with the betting at least until the “Sharps” start pounding the game.

E.Clue 5: What do I hear from the sports betting crowd. Almost without exception Carolina is a cinch to win the game easily. However the sentiment is not as vocal as it was in the New England Denver game. If you said you said you liked Denver against New England you risked having to fight someone:) This game is not quite in that category but you do get a mixed reaction anywhere from silence to laughter. That is still a very good sign if your betting on Denver.

F: Clue 6: What angles are there that are reliable on the game. Now do not think for a second I am going to disclose any angles I use for handicapping. What most people do not know is the angles handicappers use and have accumulated over the years is a secret they will guard with their lives! It takes a massive amount of time and energy to accumulate angles that are reliable. But let me say this is the only one of the clues I consider that does not point strongly one way or another. There are very good angles on both sides and I would be stretching it to say they lean to one side or another. I give this clue a tossup.

Now you might ask where is my matchup analysis between Peyton Manning and Cam Newton? Or where is my analysis of yards rushing and passing? For me analyzing those “fundamental variables” are time wasters. In my years of handicapping I have maybe knows 2 or 3 handicappers that were successful handicapping based upon matchups. And they all included some of the analysis above in conjunction with there max up skills. But I can tell you that 99% of handicappers that attempt to handicap a game using match up numbers will be unsuccessful. More often then not the conclusion you reach based upon that type of analysis is the wrong one unless you take the other side!

The books have the top experts in the business helping them put out these lines. They know where the value is and they know what the public is going to do with the line before they put it out. There is no fundamental stat that they do not take into consideration in putting out the lines. So why waste your time going over something where you have virtually no chance of gaining the edge.

Now back to my opinion. First I am not going to bet the game. I need almost everything to match up before I place money on a side. The lack of a strong angle edge precludes me from betting the game. At least according to the rule based betting procedure I use. But if your going to bet the game the only side that has value is Denver. There is no value on Carolina. And if your wondering why just reread clues A through G!

But remember this is sports betting and on any given day any side can cover the spread. These lines are never that far off. But my analysis comes into play on the assumption that if you were to make 10,000 wagers under these circumstances you would be on the plus side. An analogy would be finding someone to give you 6 to 5 on a coin flip. Your going to get all the money eventually but you might lose a few coin flips:)

For subscribers I am around all day for questions about the game. And also I will be sending out plays in college hoops, NBA and NHL shortly before game times. If your not a subscriber then join us. Its only a small month subscription. Just hit the paypal button on the upper right. Hope to see you join our group.

Good Luck Today which ever way you go on the game.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)
Private Twitter: Rick_sports

CONTINUE READING

Another 100 college hoop day today! And it all begins in 2.5 hours:)

3:00 Update

At 4 #2 North Carolina is on the road against un ranked Notre Dame. Betting is 76% on N. Carolina with the line moving from -3 to -2.5 contrary to the betting. This is very similar to my comments in the Virgina Pitt game with the difference being instead of 61% its 76% on the favorite. Typically these are good setups to add to your handicapping techniques. But again for me its the only thing pointing to Notre Dame and I need a bit more.

8:20 Update

At 9:00 #9 Virginia will be on the road against un ranked Pitt.

61% of the betting is on Pitt yet the line has moved from -1.5 to -1 and in some sports even. This is very similar to the Texas A&M game from a few days ago where a ranked road team was against an unranked home team with a high % of the betting on the ranked team and the line moving contrary to the betting. This is a setup you should be looking for especially on a day when there are 100 games. You might uncover a number of these today. Now for me that alone is not enough for it to become a play or a setup. But its a nice starting point to say the least!!!

Friday we had one play and it lost with Fairfield +11. And the game was never in doubt as they lost by 30!

No markets this morning so its a good time to discuss my Must Read portion of my site.

Let me start out by saying its my firm belief that Human nature will sabotage your success at sports betting at every corner. Human nature if its not understood and harnessed will make sure you virtually no chance at making money betting sports.

Now I know that is quite a statement but its based upon my observations of gamblers over the years. In addition I have some insights personally with harnessing my “human nature”!

As an example we went subscription for plays and setups on this site a few months ago. For the most part I have retained 90% of my subscribers which in all likelyhood is probably some sort of a record for handicapping sites. But to make my point 10% have dropped off and quit. Now I can understand that during a severe drawdown. But this is during a successful and NHL and College hoop season. I would suspect my combined record this season to date in the NHL and College hoops is in the top 3 of all sports handicapping services. For value its most likely #1 by far.

But despite that about 10% have quit the service which means they lost money. People do not quit because they are making money. Which in a round about way proves my point.

Now the reason 10% have lost money is because human nature what it is they find a way to turn a very profitable situation into defeat. They pick and choose plays, they bet on setups when I mention I do not bet them, they throw in their own handicapping techniques (ones they have lost money for years using), and they find a way to miss winning plays.

Now if you knew the time and energy I put into handicapping every day you would scratch your head. But being blessed with an obsessive nature I am unable to not do what I do. So I have chanelled it into a productive and entertaining pasttime.

Now you may ask why am I sharing the above with you. Its because its a learning experience that I think everyone can gain from. I will tell you that if you do not follow my guidelines on how to wager on my plays you might as well not start the service. You will end up being disapointed and will in all probability lose money despite we are hitting almost 60% winners in college hoops and are ahead about 15 units in the NHL.

You can take the above to the bank so to speak. You cannot leave your betting amounts to a variable as random as human nature. If you do you have virtually no chance at coming out ahead and that would be true if I put out 90% winners.

So do yourself a favor if you want to have the best chance at becoming a successful handicapper. 1. Set aside a bankroll for sports betting in an amount that if you lose it all its will not cause you any concern at all 2. wager 2% of your bankroll as your bet size. 3. When there are multiple wagers at the same time you can reduce the size of each wager a bit 4. Get your mind away from the thrill of betting to the thrill of maintaining a disciplined approach.

Well I had betting get back to work. Less then 2 hours before game time.

I am available this morining for any questions. But please send them via email rather then twitter. Much easier for me to see.

And I ask this as a favor…please spread the word about this site and service.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)
Private Twitter: Rick_sports

CONTINUE READING

Great day for Sports Plays Yesterday!!!

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NCAA Hoops 2015

NCAA Hoops 2015

Season 92-63 -2 59.35%
November 34-20-1 62.9%
December 19-21 47.5 %
January 30-17-1 63.83%
February 9-5 64.28%

February

Sides:
Away dog 5-3
Home Dog 1-0

Bet or pass
2-5

January
Sides:
Away Dog 17-12
Home Dog 11-2-1
Home Fav 0-2

Totals:
Under 1-0

Bet or Pass

20-25-2

December
Sides
Home Dog 3-2
Road Dog 5-5
Home Fav 0-1
Under
Totals 11-14

Bet or Pass
Road dog 2-2-2
Home Fav 1-0

November 34-20-1 62.9%

Sides
Road Dog 8-3-1 72.7%
Home Dog 0-1

Totals
Under 26-16 61.9%

NHL 2015

Season +13.30

February

Away Dog
4-4 +0.99
Home Fav
0-1 -1.10

Bet or Pass
0-1 -1.06

January
Away Dog 9-11 +3.16
Home Fav 1-0 +1.00

December
Away Dog 13-10 +9.30

Bet or Pass
Away Dog 1-2 -.91

November -2.51

Away Dog
12-20 -1.51
Home Dog
0-1 -1.00

Totals
0-0-1

October +3.43

Away Dog
10-10 +5.79
Home Fav
1-1 -0.16
Home Dog
0-2 -2.00

NBA 2015

Regular Season 14-12-1

February
Away Dog
3-1

Bet or Pass
Totals
Under 1-1

January
Away Dog
3-4-1

December
Away Dog
5-7

November
Away Dog
1-0

Bet or Pass
Home Dog 1-1
Away Dog 11-13
Road Fav 0-1

October
Away Dog 2-0

Preseason
12-9-1 57.14%

NFL 2015

Post Season

Side
2-1
Bet or Pass
Under 1-0
Over 0-1

Regular Season

9-12

Bet or Pass
Home Dog
5-2
Away Dog
5-2
Home Fav
1-0
Total U
16-9
Total Ov
1-0

Hilton Contest

42-38

Preseason

Bet or Pass
Sides 3-4
Totals 2-3

NFL 2014

Playoffs
1/2 Unit
2-1
Bet or Pass
1-1

Regular Season
1 Unit
Away Dog
2-3
Home Dog
4-2

1/2 Unit
Away dog
2-1-1
Home Dog
4-4

Slight Edge
Home Fav
1-2
Road Dog
1-2
Home Dog
4-2

Bet or Pass

Home Fav
1-2
Road Dog
5-6-1
Home Dog
7-3

Hilton NFL Contest Picks
49-31 61.25%
Hilton Contest top 5 Fade
31-40

Preseason
Sides
2-3

Totals
1/2 Unit
Over 0-2

NFL 2012-2013

Hilton Contest
40-38-2

Plays
Sides
9-7-1
Totals
1-0

Totals Tracking setups

Totals
60+
1-1
55+
2-3

System 4
Sides:
1-1
Totals:
2-0

System X
Sides:
3-3-1
totals:
3-1

System 5
Sides
3-2-1
Totals
2-1

System 4 and X
Sides
1-1
Totals
1-0
System X and 5
Side
2-1-1
Totals
1-1
System 4 X and 5
Totals:
1-0

NFL Preseason

Sides 2-1
Totals 3-2

NFL 2011-2012

Picks 15-15

Hilton Nfl Contest
40-42-3

Tracking plays:
System 1
1-0
System 2
3-3
System 3
3-3
System 4
31-23
System 5
21-9-1
System 6
3-2
system 7
6-0
Two system Matches
9-6
Three system match
1-0

2010 NFL Record

Picks 20-11 64.51%

NCAA FB 2015

Bowl Games

5-7

Bet or Pass

1-0

Season Plays
9-11-1

Home dog
5-5
Road Dog
2-5
Home Fav
1-1-1

Totals
Under
1-0

Bet or Pass
Road Fav 1-0
Road Dog 11-11-2
Home Dog 2-2
Home Fav 2-4
Totals 1-3

NCAA Football 2014

Bowl Games
1 Unit
1-0
1/2 Unit
1-0

Bet or Pass
4-1

1 Unit
Home Fav 2-0
Home Dog 1-2
Away Dog 0-1

1/2 Unit
Home Dog 3-0
Road Dog 5-4
Road Fav 3-0
Home Fav 0-2

Slight Edge

Bowl Games
1-0

Reg Season
Road Dog 6-1-1
Home Dog 3-0

Pass or Bet
Bowl Games
Sides
2-1

regular Season
Side
10-10-1
Total
5-4

NCAA Football 2012

1 unit plays
Sides
11-14-1
Totals
2-0

1/2 unit plays
Sides
4-8

Bowl Games

1 Unit
1-0

1/2 Unit
1-2

Totals
2-2

Sys 4
Sides
13-7
Totals
5-7

Sys X
Sides
11-7
Totals
2-3

Sys 5
Sides 6-4
Totals 6-4

Combo
Sys X sys 5
Sides
3-1
Totals
1-0

Sys X sys 4
Sides
8-6

Sys 4 Sys 5
Sides
5-2
Totals
1-3

Sys 4 sys5 sys X
Sides
0-1
Totals
1-0

Ncaa Football 2011-2012

Regular Plays
11-4

1/2 unit plays
Sides
5-6
Totals
0-1

Tracking plays

System 1
Sides: 3-3
Totals: 2-2
Fav: 1-3
Dog 2-0

System 2
Sides: 4-4
Totals:
Fav
Dog 4-4

System3
Sides: 1-1
Dog 1-1

System 4
Sides: 64-54-1
Fav: 33-27-1
Dog 31-26
Bowl games
0-2

Totals:
26-37-2
After week 7
26-21-1
Bowl Games:
3-2

System 5
Sides 19-12-1
Totals 19-15-2
Fav:
Dog: 19-12-1
Bowl Games 4-2

System 6
sides 1-1
totals 1-4

System 7
10-11
Bowl Games 5-1

2 System Match
Sides 12-9
Totals 8-9-2
3 system match
Sides: 3-2
Totals:
4 system match:
1-0

2010 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD

Picks 18-15-1 54.54%

WNBA 2015

Bet or Pass

Road Dog 2-0
Home Fav 0-2

MLB 2015

World Series
2-1 +1.04

Playoffs

1-1 0.00

Bet or Pass
7-1 +6.56

September

Win Loss for Month -1.61

Home Dog 2-7 -5.12
Away dog 2-2 +3.49

August

Win Loss for Month -14.29

Home pick
1-0 +1.00
Home Fav
3-1 +1.92
Road Dog
9-17 -3.74
Home Dog
9-20 -5.19
Totals
Under
0-3 -3.18

July

Win Loss for Month -8.73

Home Fav
1-1 -0.33
Home Dog
2-6 -3.42
Away Dog
6-10 -1.71
Home Pick
0-1 -1.05
Totals
0-2 -2.22

June

Win Loss for Month +11.17

Home Pick
3-2 +1.28
Home Fav
3-1 +1.43
Road Fav
2-0 +2.00
Home Dog
4-5 +0.12
Away Dog
5-2 +4.30
Totals
2-0 +2.02

Bet or Pass
Away Dog
2-1 +2.04

May

Away Dog
6-16 -7.96
Home Dog
1-4 -2.86
Run Line
1-1 +.65
Pick Games
2-0 +2.00
Totals
1-1 -0.10

Win Loss for Month -8.27
Totals Setups (for tracking only)
1-6-1 -5.07
Bet or Pass
Home Dog
1-1 0.00

April

Away Dog
18-21 +0.38
Home Dog
0-4 -4.0
Run Line
0-2 -2.00

Win Loss for Month -5.62

Totals Setups (for tracking only)
7-5-1 +1.83

MLB 2014-2015

Playoffs

Slight Edge
1-2 -.90

2nd half of season

1 Unit
Home Dog 5-6 -.24
Road Dog 1-3 -2.21
Under 0-2 -2.00

1/2 Unit
Home Dog 17-15 +3.73
Home Fav 8-3 +2.37
Road Dog 10-18 +.32
Road Fav 0-1 -.585
Run Line 1-2 -.37
Under 6-5 + .265
over 4-3 +.525

Slight edge
Home Dog 1-3 -131
Road Dog 1-3 -138
Home Fav 2-0 +200
Road Fav 0-1 -118
Under 3-0 +300

First Half of Season
1 Unit Plays
Home Dog
11-21 -6.66 Units
Away Dog
6-6 +2.15 Units

1/2 Unit Plays

OVER
1-0 +.54
Under
2-3 -.56
Away Dog
3-9 -2.535 Units
Home Dog
7-4 +2.05 Units
Home Fav
1-3 -1.34
Home Pick
0-1 -.51

Leans:

Home Dog
5-1 +513

Road Dog
3-2 +164

Home Fav
0-1 -182

Home Pick
0-1 -105

Slight Edges

OVER
0-1 -100

Road Dog
8-7 +371

Home Dog
16-15 +283

Home Fav
9-10 -275

Pick H
2-1 +95

Major League Baseball 2013

Playoffs
all 1 unit plays
12-11 +2.66

2nd Half of season
1 Unit Plays
Home Dog <150 Home Fav 1/2 Unit plays Home Dog (<150) 12-24 -10.53 Sept Home Dog 5-4 +1.32 Home Fav (<-150) 4-5 -1.63 Tracking 11-12 -3.91 Road Dog C 2-9 -5.23 Tracking 5-4 +6.47 Totals: 5-8-3 -4.65 Tracking 1-2 -1.15 2nd Half -17.23 Road Dog Totals ALL Sides 1 Unit 1/2 Unit 2-0 +2.00 Totals Tracking Home Dog <=30% <+150 32-37 +0.69 Tracking Sept Home dog 8-6 +2.82 Tracking Road Dog Tracking setups Setups A : 50-44 +18.18 Setups B: Tracking Home Pick Setups 0-1 -104 Tracking Totals Setups I do not bet these SETUP A 0-1-1 -106 1st Half of season 1 Unit Plays Home Dog <150 4-5 +0.00 Home Fav 0-1 -1.11 1/2 Unit plays Home Dog (<150) 22-23 +1.41 Road Dog ( Under +150) 0-4 -4.00 Home Pick (-104 to +104) 4-1 +2.95 Home Fav <-150 7-5 +1.96 Away Fav <150 0-1 -1.12 Totals 1-0 +1.00 ALL Sides 1 Unit 4-6 -1.11 1/2 Unit 29-33 -1.50 Totals 1-0 +1.00 Tracking Sides Home setups: Setup A Home Fav 5-4 +0.11 Home Pick 0-3 -3.22 Tracking Sides Away Setups A : 4-6 -1.07 Setups B: 1-1 +0.29 Setups C 2-1 +3.52 Tracking Totals Setups I do not bet these SETUP A 27-26-2 -1.74 SETUP B 19-11 +7.17 Tracking RUN LINE Setups I do not bet these 1-0 +1.65

MLB 2012

2nd half of the season
+3.95 units
1st half of season
-.36 Units
2012 season
+3.59 Units
World Series
1-0 +1.50 units

Plays

1 Unit
Home
19-16 +6.09
Away

Totals
10-12-2 -3.79

1/2 Unit size
Home
1-0 +1.00
Away
9-8 +4.96
Total

Totals
31-27-4

System setups
SysX sides
27-23 +14.32

SysX totals
31-29-4

Sys 4
Sides
Home
34-30 +10.00
Away
28-26 +5.75

Totals
40-42-5

Sys Y
Home
18-25 -4.92
Away
25-35 -5.10

1st half of season
PLAYS (bet 1/2 unit size for the season)
HOME
26-32 -0.96
AWAY
8-18 -5.88
Total
34-50 -6.81
Totals:
14-7 +6.45
A system X subset....(backtests at 55%)
12-4 75%
First week....a different methodology(abandoned early)
2-3

System setups
SysX sides
29-37 -0.18

SysX totals
34-31-4

Sys 4
Sides 55-92 -29.12
Totals
59-44-6 57.28%

Sys Y
1-2 -.78

Major League Baseball 2011

April 18-10 +11.64
May 8-14 -4.56
June 14-22 -5.09
July 14-16 +1.83
Aug 16-27 -7.47
Sept 11-18 -3.76
Postseason: 0-1 -1.00

Total: 81-109 -8.50

Other Sides( for tracking not wagering)
Home Favorite 22-19 +0.25
Home Dog 0-1 -1.00
Road Dog 6-6. +2.50
Total 28-24 +2.75

Totals: (for tracking not wagering)
9-9-1 -0.95

MLB 2010 Record

Plays 29-28 +13.32
Leans 50-55 +5.28

NBA 2014

Playoffs

Home Favorite
1-0

Regular Season

Slight Edge 2
Home Fav
12-5-1
Road Fav
6-10-1

Slight Edge

Road Dog
13-5

Home Dog
1-5

PreSeason

Slight Edge
3-0

NBA 2013

Playoffs

Plays
1/2 Unit
Home Fav
4-7
Totals
Under
3-4
Over
1-2

Slight Edge
Sides
Road Dog
2-0
Home Fav
2-2
Totals
Under
2-4
Over
1-0

Last 3 weeks of the season:

Lean
Home Fav
4-2
Road Fav
5-6

Slight Edge
Road Fav
3-4
Road Dog
1-0

Home Fav
3-0

1 Unit Road Dog
9-15-1

1st Half(for tracking)
11-12

1/2 Unit Short Fav
1-0

Leans Totals
1-3

Leans Short Dog
0-2
Leans Road Dog
1-1
1st half
0-1
Leans Home Dog
1-0
1st Half
1-1
Leans Short Fav
1-2
1st half
1-0
Leans Home Fav
1-0

Leans combined
4-2

NBA 2012 -2013

Post Season Tracking Plays ( I do not bet these)
Sides 6-8
Totals 11-8

Regular Season
Betting

1 Unit
2-3

1/2 Unit
Sides 18-9-2
Totals 0-1

Money Line Tracking Setups ( I do not bet these)
0-1 -100

Totals tracking setups (I do not bet these)

2-2

Tracking
1 unit plays
6-2
1/2 unit plays
3-3

Preseason Tracking Plays ( I do not bet these)

Sides:
Favorites: 1-2
Dogs: 1-2

Totals: 1-2

NBA 2011-2012

NBA Playoffs:

Plays:
Sides 3-0 +2.00
Totals 2-0 +2.00

System 4
Sides
1-0 +1.00
Totals
2-0 +1.00

System X
sides
Totals
1-0 +1.00

SysX
Sides 2-4
Totals 8-10

Sys 1A
1-2
Sys 1B
0-1

Sys 4
Before all star game
sides 14-9-1
totals 18-8-1
After all star game -5.0 units Lost
sides 17-16
Totals 22-31

Sys 5A
Sides: 0-2
Totals: 2-1

Sys 5B
Sides: 0-4
Totals: 6-1

sys 5C
Sides
2-1

Totals
3-4
sys7A
1-1

Sys 7B
10-5

Nba 2010-2011 Record

Sides 14-22 38.88%

Totals 24-22-1 52.17%

NHL 2014

Playoffs
Road Dog
3-4 +0.55

Slight Edge
25-45 -7.82

NHL 2013

Playoffs

Plays
1/2 Unit
Road Dog
2-5 -.895 Units

Slight Edge
side
1-3 -253
total
0-1 -125
1/2 Unit Plays
9-9 +318

Leans
3-3 +125

Slight edge
1-0 +128

NHL 2011-2012

Plays: 22-29 -2.04
Fav:
Dog: 22-29 -2.04
1/2 unit plays (startng 3/5)
5-9 -.75

Tracking plays:

System 4
-140 to +140
Fav 8-11 -4.26
Dog 21-33 -8.44

Other

Fav 2-1 +0.53
dog 17-37 -7.36

System 5
-140 to +140
5-1 +5.54
System 5A
1-1 +0.12
System 5B
6-3 +3.36

Other
1-3 -1.39
Fav
dog
1-3 -1.61

sys 4 and 5 match

-140 to +140

Other:
1-1 +.61

NHL 2011-2012

NHL Playoff Tracking setups
5-11 - 3.26

1/2 Unit Plays
Dogs
23-27 +3.85
Fav
3-5 -3.01

Total:
26-31 +0.85

Totals (Tracking Plays)
11-11-3 -1.97

NHL 2010-11 Record

Picks 57-58 +5.45

NCAA BB 2014

Post Season Tournaments
1 Unit
Fav
1-0
Dog
0-1

1/2 Unit
Fav
2-0
Dog
1-1
Bet or Pass
6-8

Post Season Conference Tournaments
1/2 Unit
3-3-1
Bet or Pass
3-2

1 Unit
Sides
6-3

1/2 Unit
Totals
25-17
Sides
Pick
1-0
Home Fav
3-5
Road Fav
2-0
Road Dog
34-26-3
Home Dog
19-12

Slight Edge
Sides
5-7
Totals
1-2

Bet or Pass
Road Dog
17-15
Home Dog
11-7
Neutral F
0-0-1
Home Fav
1-7-1
Road Favorite
2-1
Totals
Over
0-1
Under
2-1

NCAA BB 2013

Plays
Sides
1 Unit
45-40-1

Totals
1 Unit
32-15

1st Half (for tracking) line =>+7
31-25-3

1/2 Unit
5-5
1st Half
6-3

Leans
7-9
Leans 1st HALF
5-6
Leans Totals
2-2

College Hoops 2012-2013

Tournament Play
Sides
1/2 Unit
0-1
Totals
1/2 Unit
2-4

Money Line setups
1-0 +160

Conference Tournaments

Sides:
1 Unit Play
1-0
1/2 Unit Play
2-4

Totals 1/2 Unit

3-2

Conference Play
1 Unit
15-19
1/2 Unit
36-24-1

Totals
1/2 Unit
22-12

Short Dog Money line Tracking Plays
5-7 -0.62

PreConference play
1 Unit
15-18

1/2 Unit
Sides
18-20

Totals:
1 Unit
0-1
1/2 Unit
0-2

College Hoops 2011-2012

March Madness
Sys X
4-2
SysX totals +.5 units
2-1
Sys 5B
2-5
Sys5A
1-2
Reg tr setups
2-1

Rest of Season
1 unit plays
34-20

1/2 unit plays
20-31-2

System X(1/2 unit)

Sides 44-33-2
Total 4-4-1
Totals while tracking 14-18-1 bets 1-1

Fav 9-12-2
Dog 30-12
Pick to 1.5 4-9

System 1A
6-6

system1B3

3-3-1

System 1C
1-0

System 4
1-1

Sys 5A
25-15
Totals
4-4

System 5B
13-28-2
Totals
6-9

System 5C
12-8
Totals
3-8

System7A
6-7
System 7B
4-2

Reg Tracking Plays(I do not bet these)
74-84-3

Pre Conference Play

1 unit plays
26-15-1 63.4%
Dogs
20-9
Fav
3-4
Short dogs:
1-4

1/2 unit plays
Dogs
4-3
Short Dogs
0-2
Fav
0-2

Tracking plays pre conference:

Sides
system 1A
4-2
system1B
4-0
System 4
13-13

System 5
1-1
system 5A
6-0
system 5B
15-11
system 5C
2-8-1

System 6
0-1

System 7
7-1
System 7A
0-1
System7B
0-1

Totals:

system 5A
1-1
system 5B
1-4

System 5C
6-3

2010-11 NCAA HOOPS RECORD

Total sides: 100-82-5 54.94%

WNBA 2011

WNBA (For tracking purposes only)(I do not bet these)
Home Favorites
0-1
Road Favorites
0-5
Short Road Favorites (up to -6.5)
0-3
Short Home Favorites
3-4
Short Road Dogs
0-1
Short home dogs
1-0

Total:
4-14

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