Saturday

May 18, 2013 6:41 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in MLB,NBA,NHL

12:00 and Final Update
Saturday MLB Play
1/2 Unit
961 (R) Lincecum, T
962 Colorado (R) Chatwood, T +106

9:00 Update

A Comment:

“Hi Rick,

First off thanks for the picks. I was doing a little comparision between your volume of NFL bets last year, compared to the previous two seasons. I noticed you only bet 18 games last year, compared to 30 and 31 in the previous seasons. Do you think the books have become more adapt to your system, and do you anticipate a being closer to the 30 figure or around 20 again this year?

The reason I ask is because I am considering trying to clear an online bonus this year with one of the major sportsbooks that I don’t have an account with, so I am trying to figure a rough figure for an initial deposit (to survive swings) and an average bet size that would allow me to clear the rollover requirement.

Thanks again.”

Actually I think last season was an anomaly. I cannot ever remember seeing a sunday where there were 10 highly bet public favorites and every one of them covering easily. Also you know its an unusual season when I start getting emails that my methods no longer work! And that betting the public favorites is now the only way to go.

Saying that it has been obvious over the last 2 or 3 years that my methods are not as strong as they used to be in the NFL. But as far as I can tell they are still positive EV.

As far as the number of games wagered there would be no idea how to predict that. The sample size in the NFL is so very small season to season that I do not think you can draw any conclusions based upon the last 3 seasons.

Sorry I cannot be more helpful.

Thought of the day:

” I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people ”

RickJ

Friday we went 1-2 on our 1/2 Unit plays winning Oakland and losing Minn and the Cubs. All three were one point games.

Also our NHL Playoff tracking setup lost.

Saturday NHL Playoff Tracking setup ( I do not bet these)

Detroit +183

Saturday NBA Playoff Tracking Setup ( I do not bet these)

Indiana -5
Indiana O 179.5

Saturday MLB Totals tracking setups ( I do not bet these)

Colorado O 10.5 -115

Plays a bit later

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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Friday

May 17, 2013 5:34 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in MLB,NBA,NHL

2:30 Update
Friday MLB Plays
1/2 Unit
923 – – C Buchholz
924 – MIN – V Worley +128

925 – – J Shields
926 – OAK – J Parker -102

10:30 Update

Friday MLB Play
1/2 Unit
901 – – M Harvey
902 – CHC – E Jackson +128

8:30 Update

For those of you that like to multi task…something to consider:

“there are definite limitations on the number of conceptual units that humans can handle at any one time. As the complexity of the information increases, effective use increases only to a point. Once complexity increases beyond this point, use of the information decreases in both quantity and quality, and behavior becomes confused and dysfunctional (Driver & Streufert, 1969; Jacoby, Speller, & Kohn, 1974; Miller, 1960).”

Thursday there were no plays but we had 4 tracking setups that went 2-2.

The winners were Knicks in the nba and Colorado O in MLB. Losers were San Jose in the NHL and the total in the knicks game.

I thought we had San Jose last night as they were ahead by 1 with about 3 min left in the game. Oh well!

Friday NHL Playoff tracking setup ( I do not bet these)

Ottawa +178

I will update later with any plays. Today actually looks like several plays tonight.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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Thursday

May 16, 2013 5:46 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in MLB,NBA,NHL

Wednesday we won our 1/2 Unit play on Arizona -105 with a 5-3 win.

Our 2 total tracking setups in MLB both went over easily. Our NBA Playoff tracking setup lost.

Thursday MLB Totals Tracking setups ( I do not bet these)

Colorado O 9.5 +105

Thursday NHL Playoff Tracking setups ( I do not bet these)

San Jose +132

Thursday NBA PLayoff Tracking setups ( I do not bet these)

New York -5
New York O 179

I will update later if any plays develop. A few games look promising later today.

Good Luck today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

{ 0 comments }

Wedn

May 15, 2013 5:43 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in MLB,NBA

11:45 Update

Wedn MLB Play
1/2 Unit
901 – – T Hudson
902 – ARI – I Kennedy -105

Wedn MLB Run Line Tracking setup ( I do not bet these)

Tuesday we lost our 1/2 Unit Play on Oakland even in extra innings.

Our tracking setups split….losing the NBA total but winning our new run baseball tracking setup.

Today too early for plays.

Wednesday NBA Playoff tracking setup ( I do not bet these)

Oklahoma City -4

Wednesday MLB Total Tracking setups( I do not bet these)

Detroit O 8.5
Phil O 7.5

I will update before game times with any plays.

Good luck today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

{ 0 comments }

Tuesday

May 14, 2013 8:04 am · 1 comment

by RickJ · 1 comment

in MLB,NBA,NHL

3:30 Update

I am going to be following a new tracking setup for sides on Baseball runlines:

Tuesday MLB Run Line tracking setup: ( I do not bet these)

L.A Angels -1.5 +165

3:00 Update

Tuesday MLB Play
1/2 Unit
973 – - D Holland
974 – OAK – B Colon Even

9:30 Update

A Comment:

“Hey Rick. A couple questions if you have a minute.

I know you use a wide variety of variables to handicap games. Are there some games that you are far more certain of than others? I see sometimes you say 1 unit as opposed to half unit – But I was just wondering if when you get a game that you are really confident about you could make it clear that its one of your better plays?

Not sure if that makes sense. Bad headache today.

Pretty much just want to know if you can tell us when you are extra confident in a play?”

We are in a time period now that covers three sports that have been the most difficult to handicap using my methods. Thats why almost all the plays are 1/2 unit.

As you can see from the NBA this season …things have improved dramatically. Few plays but high reliability.

The playoff setups so far are just setups that I do not plan on changing them to plays next year. However we still have a ways to go. Right now they are breakeven.

In baseball we will see how things work out this season. But I am optimistic that the Home dog plays will all be one unit next season. There are a few this season that have been one unit but everything has to be perfect and even then the +ev between the two is not much.

When you ask about me being really confident it would be a matter of a 2%ev compared to maybe a 3.5%ev. The positive EV on these plays is small….although 2 to 3 % in my opinion is huge…just how you look at things. If your used to following handicappers that put out 10 star plays or locks of the year you will find my methods very boring…however my methods should keep you out of trouble and make you money year in and year out.

Finally combine my methods with a solid money management technique and you have something. I recommend putting aside a bankroll solely for sports betting….and bet 2.5 % on each play…..with the exception being when multiple plays are put out reducing the % to 2%.

So if you have have a 5,000 bank roll your starting bet size would be 125 dollars. If you want to be more conservative you can do 2% and 1.5 %. And there is nothing wrong with being conservative when it comes to sports betting considering that at best only 2% of the sports bettors make money betting sports.

I am open to questions and opinions on the above!

Monday there was no plays or tracking setups.

We are hitting a very slow period right now. These come about from time to time and I have found its best to just go with the flow rather then trying to stretch things to find a play. It seems whenever I get out of line things do not work out so well:) And of course that is the way it should be!

Today too early for plays although again today there are a few games that could produce plays later in the day.

Tuesday NBA Playoff Tracking setup:(I do not bet these)

Indiana O 179.5

I will update around 3:30 or so.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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Monday

May 13, 2013

Sunday there was no plays. Our tracking setup on Detroit over lost. Today not much shows up this morning. No tracking setups today in any sport. There is the possibility of a play in baseball tonight in one of the late late games. I will update later if it becomes clear. I have been getting [...]

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Sunday

May 12, 2013

9:30 Update Well about the time I say there are a few games that look good……variables have changed and now there is nothing that meets my criteria for a play. So its most likely there will be no plays today. Although I will keep watching the numbers. Saturday there was no plays but our 2 [...]

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Saturday

May 11, 2013

Friday it was looking like we had an easy win with MInn +105 but after a 6-0 lead they lost 9-6. Our NHL tracking setups went 1-1 for a +.92 gain. Today a few baseball plays that might develop but nothing looks clear right now. Saturday MLB Totals tracking setups ( I do not bet [...]

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Friday

May 10, 2013

3:00 Update 1/2 Unit 969 J Hammel – R 970 Minnesota Twins M Pelfrey – R +105 Thursday we lost our 1/2 Unit play on Minn in the NHL as a +228 dog. They lost 5-1 Today too early for plays and no tracking setups today in the NBA. Friday NHL Tracking setups: 1/2 Unit [...]

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Thursday

May 9, 2013

Not a very good day yesterday. Our 1/2 Unit play on The cubs lost and our 4 tracking setups also lost. Today most likely nothing in baseball either tracking or plays. I will update if anything develops. Thursday NHL Playoff Tracking setup: Minn +228 RickJ Rickjshandicappingpicks.com Twitter: rickjsportplays Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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Wednesday

May 8, 2013

10:00 Update Wedn MLB Plays 1/2 Unit 953 J Westbrook – R 954 Chicago Cubs C Villanueva – R +104 Tuesday the cubs came through for us again as a 1/2 unit +117 2-1 winner. Our tracking setups went 3-2. With the nba sides 1-1, Nhl sides 0-1 and baseball totals 2-0 Today some early [...]

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Tuesday

May 7, 2013

3:30 Update Tues MLB Play 1/2 Unit L. Lynn 904 Chicago Cubs T. Wood +117 Monday we had an easy win 9 – 2 with the cubs +107. Our tracking setups went 1-2. The NBA total covered and the nba and nhl sides both lost. Today some setups : Tuesday NBA Playoff tracking Setups:(I do [...]

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