Thursday

October 1, 2014 5:57 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in Miscellaneous

Swing Trade Update

I added #3 position to SSO at 116.28 220 shares

Rickj

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Monday

September 29, 2014 8:33 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in NFL

9:40 update

-3 still at many books …at -3 its a complete pass for me.

9:30 Update

Oh yes almost forgot…KC is a top 5 hilton pick…so New England is part of the top 5 fade system

A good day yesterday for the Hilton picks. I went 3-2 the hard way….1-2 in the afternoon and 2-0 in the afternoon and evening game. My 3 winners were dogs that all three won the game outright including tampa bay that was 0-3 coming into the game and a 7 pt dog!

My 1 unit play on Tenn went down and never had a chance while 1/2 unit play on Tampa was a winner. Hilton top five fades went 3-1 with KC left for tonight to fade.

So after week 4 in the Hilton Contest I stand at 13-7 hitting 65%. Solid so far:)

Tonight in the NFL

New England
KC

New england has 59% of the betting on them with the line moving contrary to the action from -3.5 to -2.5-120. That is a huge move.

Looking at the game however my models are all in agreement that New England is undervalued. The public betting does not support either side at these levels and variables are completely absent on the game. For me tonight at -2.5 it would be New England or pass. I am passing.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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Sunday

September 28, 2014 6:02 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in College Football,NFL,POKER

9:50 Update

Sunday NFL Play
1 unit
Tenn +7
1/2 Unit
Tampa +7

Saturday we won our 1/2 unit play on Wake Forest in an easy win 10 -20. Our slight edges went 1-1 with Troy covering and Connecticut getting blown out.

The Hilton top 5 picks (10-5-1) You should look to fade these

Green Bay
Kansas City
Atl
Phil
New Orleans

I am fading two of the top five picks.

Atlanta 82
Indi 78
Pitt 70
Green Bay 68
Det 66
New Orl 65
San Diego 65
Mia 58
Hou 56
Baltimore 56
Phil 52

Right now I am 10-5 in the hilton contest. After the first two weeks being 4-1 I slipped a bit last week with a 2-3 week. So going into week 4 I am hitting a respectable 66%.

I am sure you have noticed Jacksonville was not on my picks this week:) Let me start out by saying on that game its either Jacksonville or a pass. I didnt pick the game despite all variables strongly pointing to jacksonville for two reasons. 1. Jacksonville has 35% of the betting on them. Considering how poorly they have played I am surprised they are getting this much support. 2. My models strongly point to San Diego. I made some tweeks in the models before the start of the season and they have been spot on so far this season. So I am passing completely on the game.

My first three picks were the only obvious picks to me. Then I had to pick two more leaving out jacksonville for the above reasons. My fourth and fifth pick Oakland and Dallas were all slightly favored by the variables but strongly favored by the models. However the numbers are neutral on both as Oakland has 42% of the betting and Dallas 35%.

Looking at the poker indicator the worst I should do is 3-2. The general consensus was among the people I discussed my picks with was I have a basketful of losers. One person was kind enough to ask if I was intentionally trying to pick losers:) My usual response to this is for him to pick 5 teams and we can go 1,000 for who does the best. But I was concentrating on trying to win a hand at the time after a four hour dry spell. So I missed out on what is typically easy money. I must be slipping.

I am going to wait to put out plays as many of the games are jumping around quite a bit.

Now onto poker:

There is a player in the game that has been struggling quite a bit. I came in early Saturday morning to get into an almost full game. The player was stuck pretty good and had been playing all night. Now a hand came down where the hand was capped preflop with five way action. Flop came KK8. Plenty of action again narrowing the field to 3 way. A on turn with again plenty of action. The A on river with a bet and a raise and a call.

The loser on the hand had KK23. So he flopped four kings and picked up the nut low draw on the turn. And as luck would have it he lost to two running aces making the other person four aces!

Thats about the worst I have seen in Omaha 8. To the person’s credit he took it in stride and silently left the game after a round.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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Saturday

September 27, 2014 7:47 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in College Football,INVESTING

4:20 update

Hilton NFL Picks in the order i liked them at the time

1. Tenn +7.5
2. Minn +3
3. Tampa bay +7.5
4. Oakl +4
5. Dallas +3

3:30 update
Slight edge
Troy +14

12:50 update

Slight edge
Conn+6.5

12:00 update
Sat ncaafb play
1/2 unit
Wake forest +21.5

Friday we won our slight edge on Middle Tn state +3. Shortly after I put that out the line moved all the way down to -1! And it was good.

Today I do not see anything I like in the 9:00 games. I will update shortly before game times.

Our swing trade in SSO has been a roller coaster ride to say the least. We are in striking distance of an exit. A moderate gain on Monday would most likely give us an exit signal on both trades. We will see.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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Friday

September 26, 2014 9:19 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in College Football,INVESTING

Nothing on Thursday. And not likely to be any plays today although that could change.

Two college football games tonight:

Fresno has 65% of the betting on them. The line has moved contrary to the betting from -6 to -4.5. My models show fresno to be slightly overvalued with no variables on either side of the game. A pass for me.

Old Dom has 72% of the betting on them with the line moving from -3.5 to -3. A clear cut reverse line move. In addition variable favor Midd Tn slightly.

The numbers are not enough for me to make the game a play:

Slight Edge
Middle Tn St +3

I will update if anything changes.

We are still in our swing trade in SSO. I anticipate we will still be in at the end of the day.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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Thursday

September 25, 2014

Wednesday no plays. We had a nice gain on our swing trade in SSO but the market is down 240 as I write this so our gain has evaporated. Does not look like I will be getting out today. But also not adding today…might tomorrow. 4 football games tonight. To make it short this morning. [...]

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Wednesday

September 24, 2014

Nothing on Tuesday and nothing again today. No football and nothing in baseball today. I have on two swing trades in SSO. 120.42 and 119.20. The market is rebounding today with SSO trading at 120.00. Unless we get a huge move up from here I doubt an exit will trigger today. The exit triggers are [...]

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Tuesday

September 23, 2014

Swing trade Update: Bought 210 SSO at 119.20 Monday there was no plays. Today nothing in baseball again today. I have tightened everything down until the playoffs in baseball unless something looks obvious to me. I put the 1st of 4 legs of a swing trade in SSO yesterday. If the market stays at this [...]

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Monday

September 22, 2014

12:55 Update Swing Trade Bought 210 SSO 120.42 11:20 Update Forgot to mention the Hilton top 5 Fades went 1-5. Not a good day for fading the hilton picks. Not a good day in the NFL Monday although it could of been worse I guess. I went 2-3 in the hilton contest bringing my record [...]

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Sunday

September 21, 2014

9:15 Update No baseball today. One thing to note and I mentioned it a few days ago. If your betting dogs and in particular dogs that are disliked you should get your wagers in Saturday night or sunday before 8:00. The moves start coming in against the public favorites before game time. We are seeing [...]

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Saturday

September 20, 2014

Final update Hilton top five (fade) Wash Indy Nyg Cinci Dallas Buffalo Last two are tied My hilton picks in the order i liked them at the time: 1. Minn +10.5 2. St louis +1.5 3. Oakland +14 4. Jacksonville +6.5 5. Arizona +3 Two of the picks are fading the top 5. As to [...]

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Friday

September 19, 2014

Thursday no plays. But the one variable that kept me away from Tampa Bay paid off as they were never in the game. Today looking over baseball most likely no plays today. I will update if anything changes. One Football game tonight: Conn at S florida The betting is on S. Florida 57% and the [...]

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