Sunday

August 30, 2015 7:06 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in INVESTING,MLB,NFL

There are still 2 weeks left before the Westgate Super Contest starts – If you need a proxy service to enter – “lasvegascontestproxy.com” I know the owner of the service and can highly recommend this Proxy service. So if you’re from out of town…or out of the country and have the urge to enter the Westgate NFL contest this season …give them a call. I am not affiliated with this service nor do I get any remuneration for recommending them.

Saturday we had no MLB plays. In preseason NFL our setups went 3-3. 2-3 on the sides and 1-0 on the total. These are best used with your successful handicapping methods for preseason. If you happened to bet these you had an exciting time as at one point after losing the first one and Atlanta with the under bother winning it looked like they might go 4-1-1. Green Bay had the ball and needed one more score to Tie and San Fran imploded in the 4th. But an exciting day. Nice to finally see the NFL about to get in full swing.

Today its a bit early for MLB Plays but there are several that look promising. I have tightened up MLB quite a bit going into the final stretch of the season.

Early MLB Weightings:

913 DET – A Simon 3++
914 TOR – M Buehrle
925 BOS – W Miley 1.5
926 NYM – N Syndergaard
917 LAA – J Weaver
918 CLE – J Tomlin 1+
915 KC – D Duffy 1-
916 TB – N Karns
905 SD – J Shields
906 PHI – A Asher 2
927 NYY – N Eovaldi
928 ATL – J Teheran 2+
903 COL – J De La Rosa 0.5
904 PIT – C Morton
901 MIA – B Hand 0
902 WAS – S Strasburg 0
921 HOU – L McCullers
922 MIN – E Santana 1
919 SEA – E Olmos 3
920 CHW – J Quintana
907 CIN – J Lamb
908 MIL – W Peralta 1-
923 BAL – M Gonzalez 0
924 TEX – D Holland 0
909 STL – J Garcia 1
910 SF – C Heston
929 OAK – J Chavez 0
930 ARI – A WEBSTER 0
911 CHC – J Arrieta
912 LAD – A Wood 1

I will update with plays if they become clear.

There are two NFL Preseason games today and so far I do not see anything that is near to a setup. But its early. Let me also mention that handicapping preseason is completely different then regular season. So much different that you could even categorize them as two different sports!

Swing trade and Market comments will be posted this afternoon.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)

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Saturday

August 29, 2015 8:13 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in MLB,NFL

5:00 Update

Bet or pass
San fran +6 L

4:30 Update

Bet or Pass
Green Bay +6 L
Indy +2 W

3:30 update

Bet or pass

Atlanta +6 W
Atlanta U43 W

12:00 Update

These Bet or Pass setups suggest a very slight edge. Not one I would wager on. I would use them with other handicapping methods you have found successful. Remember this is preseason!

Bet or Pass
Pitt +3 +105 L

There are still 3 weeks left (till 9-11) before the Westgate Super Contest starts – If you need a proxy service to enter – “lasvegascontestproxy.com” I know the owner of the service and can highly recommend this Proxy service. So if you’re from out of town…or out of the country and have the urge to enter the Westgate NFL contest this season …give them a call. I am not affiliated with this service nor do I get any remuneration for recommending them.

Friday we won our MLB Play on Houston +119 3-0 and our setup on Tenn in preseason NFL lost. I had to laugh a bit when Tenn took a time out on 4th and 1 in the first half. Came back for the play and got a 5 yard penalty. Looks like another long season for tenn!

Today in MLB not much showed up that looks good to me. Not only that nothing looks like it has any potential to turn into a play. I will monitor the variables and if anything changes I will update.

Early MLB Weightings

963 DET – B Farmer 0
964 TOR – D Hutchison 0
975 BOS – J Kelly 1.5
976 NYM – J deGrom
951 STL – L Lynn
952 SF – R Vogelsong 0+
965 KC – K Medlen 0
966 TB – J Odorizzi 0
957 SD – C Rea
958 PHI – A Morgan 1-
953 MIA – T Koehler 0
954 WAS – J Zimmermann 0
955 COL – C Rusin 0
956 PIT – J Happ 0
977 NYY – L Severino
978 ATL – M Wisler 0.5
959 CIN – K Sampson 2
960 MIL – M Garza
969 SEA – H Iwakuma 1
970 CHW – J Samardzija
971 LAA – G Richards 0
972 CLE – C Kluber 0
967 HOU – M Fiers
968 MIN – M Pelfrey 1.5+
973 BAL – U Jimenez 0+
974 TEX – M Perez
979 OAK – A BROOKS
980 ARI – J Chacin 1-
961 CHC – J Lester 0
962 LAD – M Latos 0

There is also quite a few NFL preseason games today. I have just started taking a look at them and if anything looks decent I will also update those.

Football starts in earnest next weekend with college football. I will be out of town thursday through sunday. But will try to get everything ready so I can evaluate the games while I am out of town.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)

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Friday

August 28, 2015 5:03 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in INVESTING,MLB,NFL

4:55 update

Bet or pass

Tenn +5.5

10:00 Update

There are still 3 weeks left (till 9-11) before the Westgate Super Contest starts – If you need a proxy service to enter – “lasvegascontestproxy.com” I know the owner of the service and can highly recommend this Proxy service. So if you’re from out of town…or out of the country and have the urge to enter the Westgate NFL contest this season …give them a call. I am not affiliated with this service nor do I get any remuneration for recommending them.

Well at least you can say about my MLB picks is they are consistent! 0-3 Thursday. Can it get any worse …probably.

Friday MLB Plays
Minn +119

Early MLB Weightings
903 COL – J Gray 1
904 PIT – F Liriano 0
901 MIA – A Conley 0
902 WAS – M Scherzer 0
905 SD – I Kennedy 0
906 PHI – A Nola 1
913 DET – M Boyd 2+
914 TOR – R Dickey
925 BOS – H Owens 1
926 NYM – M Harvey 0
917 KC – E Volquez
918 TB – E Ramirez 2
915 LAA – A Heaney 0
916 CLE – D Salazar 0
927 NYY – M Tanaka 0
928 ATL – W Perez 1
919 BAL – K Gausman 1
920 TEX – C Hamels 0
921 SEA – T Walker 0
922 CHW – J Danks 0
923 HOU – S Kazmir
924 MIN – K Gibson 4
907 CIN – R Iglesias 0
908 MIL – T Jungmann 0
929 OAK – S Gray
930 ARI – C ANDERSON 1
909 CHC – J Hammel 0
910 LAD – C Kershaw 0
911 STL – M Wacha
912 SF – M Leake 2

I do not anticipate any more plays for today in MLB. NFL preseason games tonight. I will update with any setups I see a bit later.

I am flat on my swing trades now and do not anticipate putting any on today. Our overnight trade gained 1.05%. I will post more on the market and swing trading Sunday.

Looks like we may get a break today with a gap only in the .6 % range. It just does not feel right without a gap of over 1%. But we have 30 min left before the open so who knows:)

The market for me is in no mans land. We have had a nice 2 day bounce …one of the biggest on record. But these days the market has been setting records on both sides in addition to intraday swings. 200 pts moves in an hour are normal right now!

Until the volatility stops swing trading is going to be very difficult. I did place one swing trade on at the close yesterday and will exit this morning at the open. It was on the short side of the market fading the incredibly strong two days of movement. Right now the trade has about a 1% profit.

I may take a day trade today but nothing in the swing trade category as the risk reward is not very good right now for my style of trading. Nothing worse then getting whipsawed in these markets. That can really eat up a trading account fast. So……better setups will come along soon. Ideally we get a quick fall to retest the lows of last week washing out retail traders and at that point it will be time to consider getting aggressive.

If you want to follow my swing trades just send an invite to RICKJSWINGS for a two week free trial.

For those of you whose trial is running out you can sign up for 24$ a month through Paypal. Just send to my email address: [email protected]

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)

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Thursday

August 27, 2015 5:01 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in INVESTING,MLB

3:00 Update

There are still 3 weeks left (till 9-11) before the Westgate Super Contest starts – If you need a proxy service to enter – “lasvegascontestproxy.com” I know the owner of the service and can highly recommend this Proxy service. So if you’re from out of town…or out of the country and have the urge to enter the Westgate NFL contest this season …give them a call. I am not affiliated with this service nor do I get any remuneration for recommending them.

Wednesday our MLB plays went 1-3 and our early play this morning lost. If I had any sense I would revamp MLB and wait for next season. But I am going to finish off the season and regroup during the off season for baseball. Its been a miserable season. No way around it.

Thursday MLB Plays
Phil +139
Arizona +116

Late MLB Weightings:
957 SD – A Cashner 1
958 WAS – J Ross
955 NYM – J Niese
956 PHI – A Harang 3
959 PIT – G Cole
960 MIA – J Nicolino 2
969 MIN – T Milone
970 TB – D Smyly 2
971 SEA – R ELIAS 2.5
972 CHW – C Rodon
961 STL – C Martinez
962 ARI – R De La Rosa 3

I will update with Market comments in the morning.

10:30 Update

Well the market has continued where it left off yesterday ahead over 2% as I write this. I received a few emails questioning about getting in too early and leaving money on the table:)

Let me start out saying that this method almost never catches the exact low or the exact high…nor is it designed to. Taking money out of the middle is the intent of the mean reversion trades. Breakout trades are completely different and I will discuss those some time in the future.

So you can almost always expect to have a paper loss after initiating your position and almost always expect that you could of made more money by staying int a bit longer…That is a given on mean reversion trading.

Right now we are experiencing life time events in the market. 10% drops in 5 days are historical. 1000 pt daily swings are historical. I am very satisfied on how my methods have performed this month when many traders have lost an unbelievable amount of money. My methods do best when their is volatility but its reasonable. Right now the volatility is hard for any method to manage.

I closed my 3 mean reversion swing trades this morning and they are hitting a 89% success rate. I close another 3 that are a little different type of mean reversion method and they are hitting 92%. And the SPY/SSO trades that I post here are hitting a 86% success rate.

Comparing this to the Breakout trades that range from 55 to 65% success rate.

This gives you an idea what to expect. Mean reversion trading has to be managed by position sizing as they do not have a stop loss. All back testing that includes stop loses without exception reduces the EV significantly.

Feel free to send me an email with any additional questions.

If you want to follow my swing trades just send an invite to RICKJSWINGS for a two week free trial.

For those of you whose trial is running out you can sign up for 24$ a month through Paypal. Just send to my email address: [email protected]

9:50 Update

MLB Weightings for early games
963 LAA – M SHOEMAKER
964 DET – R Wolf 1+
965 TOR – M Estrada
966 TEX – Y Gallardo 2++
967 BAL – C Tillman 1+
968 KC – Y Ventura
953 CHC – D Haren 0+
954 SF – M Bumgarner

9:25 Update

Thursday MLB Play
Cin +181

951 LAD – Z Greinke
952 CIN – A DeSclafani 3+

Another day and another 1% gap..this time its up. Most likely no swing trades for me today and the six trades I have on now I plan to exit shortly after the open.

Euphoria is everywhere right now. Everyone got a good nights sleep last night…and are giving their trading buddies a high five thinking this downswing is over. Myself I do not think its going to be as easy as that. The market is still way under its 200 day moving average and also about every short term moving average you can think of.

A rally like yesterday looked more to me like a bear market rally then a healthy bull market rally. My thinking is their is a good probability we head down and test the lows in the next 30 to 60 days for the complete washout of the retail traders. I think that is the most likely scenario. Of course we may get a V shape recovery like we have in the past but remember the market does not have the fed in its corner. Bernanke and Greenspan are long gone and we have Yellen who right now is looking to raise rates. In addition we have the multitude of geopolitical disasters waiting to happen that could also cause havoc in the market. Finally last but not least we have a political system here in the U.S. that is about as dysfunctional as it gets. I just do not think traders are out of the woods yet.

I am sure the poker players that invest were ready to jump off a bridge before yesterday. I had talked to a few. I have to laugh a bit as during 2008 at its worst point one of the players actually had a bottle of malax at the poker table next to his chips! Omaha 8 players can really be a source of amusement from time to time:)

In any event I have six swing trades on at present and plan on exiting all six shortly after the open. Then I will be looking for better opportunities on the next move down.

If you want to follow my swing trades just send an invite to RICKJSWINGS for a two week free trial.

For those of you whose trial is running out you can sign up for 24$ a month through Paypal. Just send to my email address: [email protected]

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)

{ 0 comments }

Wednesday

August 26, 2015 4:41 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in INVESTING,MLB

4:00 Update

Today was a monster day to the upside and our SPY/SSO swing exit triggered right before the close. It gave us a .84% loss for the trade. It was right on the trigger and I took it. With these mean reversion trades the trigger gets lower and lower as the trade develops as its based upon a technical indicator for its exit. So despite the 10% market selloff in 5 days our SPY trade has less then a 1% loss.

I did not exit any of my swing trades in stocks however so they are positioned well if the market follows through tomorrow. None were near their trigger points but another big day tomorrow would most likely get us there.

For those of you that are following this ..this is the extreme. 1000 pt swings in the dow are a real rarity and this last week of trading we were getting them every day! The market has pretty much recovered from its oversold condition but is still slightly there. It will be nice when things get back to normal…these 2% or more gaps on the open really tie your hands for swing trading. In the six remaining swings I have about a 1700 profit. So a big day tomorrow would work out nicely:) We will see.

I will update in the morning.

If you want to follow my swing trades just send an invite to RICKJSWINGS for a two week free trial.

For those of you whose trial is running out you can sign up for 24$ a month through Paypal. Just send to my email address: [email protected]

1:40 Update

There are still 3 weeks left (till 9-11) before the Westgate Super Contest starts – If you need a proxy service to enter – “lasvegascontestproxy.com” I know the owner of the service and can highly recommend this Proxy service. So if you’re from out of town…or out of the country and have the urge to enter the Westgate NFL contest this season …give them a call. I am not affiliated with this service nor do I get any remuneration for recommending them.

Tuesday we went 2-1 on our MLB plays. It was looking like a rare 3-0 day but Texas could not hold a 1 run lead into the 9th:(

Wednesday MLB Plays
San Diego +138
Phil +126
Cinci +151

MLB Weightings

903 SD – T Ross 3
904 WAS – G GONZALEZ
901 NYM – B Colon
902 PHI – J Eickhoff 3+
919 LAA – H Santiago 1-
920 DET – J Verlander
905 PIT – J Locke
906 MIA – C Narveson 2+
907 LAD – B Anderson
908 CIN – D Holmberg 4
909 COL – Y Flande
910 ATL – S Miller 1
921 MIN – T Duffey 1
922 TB – C Archer
929 MIL – J Nelson
930 CLE – Co Anderson 2
923 TOR – D Price
924 TEX – C Lewis 1
927 BAL – W Chen 2-
928 KC – J Cueto
925 BOS – R Porcello 0.5
926 CHW – C Sale
911 STL – J Lackey
912 ARI – P Corbin 2
913 CHC – K Hendricks 2
914 SF – J Peavy

I will post market comments after the opening of the globex at 3.

12:55 Update

I will be exiting SSO at the close…target hit OUT 56.95

12:40 Update

Well…its been awhile but the markets are cooperating today with the spy up 3.25% and the Nasdaq up 4.24%. If the markets close down today I will be very very disappointed! We are aways from an exit on my SPY/SSO trade and I doubt the exit will get there today. In addition the six other swing trades I have on are aways from there exit also. So it looks like I will carry them on overnight. Its tempting to sell here but I am going to fight human nature and stick to the plan:)

Another few hundred points up here before the close however might get me closer to the exits. We will see. Anything can happen in these markets of course and when you get shorts covering anything is possible into the close.

11:00 Update

Wedn MLB Play
Oakland +133

MLB Weighting
917 OAK – C Bassitt 3+
918 SEA – F Hernandez

8:40 Update

MLB Weighting on NYY game
915 HOU – C McHugh 0
916 NYY – M Pineda 0

6:15 Update

To give you an idea of the historical odds:

2015-Aug-26

Another day and another Large Gap. For the 2nd day in a row we get a large gap up. SPY a little over an hour before the open is up 2.8%. This translates to SSO being up 5.7%. Large gap ups are easy days for me as its just a question of managing trades. I do not take breakout trades on these days..the reason…take a look at yesterday. Breakout trades all would of been stopped out by the end of the day. I would rather be looking at breakout trades on gap down days that do not turn into a trend day down. Sounds easy….it isnt!

I imagine everyone would be excited about this big gap up today but with tuesdays memory still firmly entrenched in our mind…its probably optimistic apprehension! Do we get a gap and go, consolidation , or a gap fill? My vote is a gap and go but they really do not listen to me so we will have to wait and see. I added the final position of my SPY/SSO trade at the close yesterday and also added a mean reversion swing at the close. So sticking to the plan.

I have been getting quite a few emails regarding the worth of this trading method I am using. I have been doing this for years. I managed 2008 and will manage this. Actually I feel pretty good how this method has performed in this drawdown. I have loses but nothing that will not be recovered with a nice 2 day bounce. The one thing about this method….as I have mention many times before…..sizing is the way you manage risk in mean reversion trading. There is no way to avoid these times….but the money you make in markets that react within the norms far outweighs the money you lose in these rare events. We will see!

To give you an idea of the depth of this sell off.
$SPX is off $2.1 Trillion over the last 6 sessions; worst Aug since 1998!

I have on 7 swing trades right now all of which are mean reversion trades. More then likely there will be no additional positions today but just managing trades. Is there any chance the fed announces no interest rate hikes this year? If that happens it will be a historic day to the upside(more wishful thinking)

If you want to follow my swing trades just send an invite to RICKJSWINGS for a two week free trial.

For those of you whose trial is running out you can sign up for 24$ a month through Paypal. Just send to my email address: [email protected]

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)

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Tuesday

August 25, 2015

5:15 Update The markets had another dramatic turnaround today. Overnight they were up almost 5% . By the time the market opened they were up around 3.5% and when they closed the dow was down 200 pts. The globex is now open and the markets are off almost 1%. Whats remarkable to me is the […]

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Monday

August 24, 2015

10:30 Update Sunday we went 1-1 on our MLB Plays. Winning with Houston +158 and losing with Detroit +122. Today 2 games look good so far to me: Monday MLB Plays Phil +188 Miami +143 Early MLB Weightings 919 CLE – C Kluber 2 920 CHC – J Lester 901 NYM – J deGrom 902 PHI – A Morgan 3 909 HOU – S Feldman 1+ 910 NYY – N Eovaldi 903 COL – J De […]

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Sunday

August 23, 2015

3:20 Update Well I picked quite a time to start posting my swing trades. Thursday and Friday was the worst 2 day drop since 2008 and the first time markets have been off 10% from the highs since 2011. The market is about as oversold as I have seen it since 2008. So it does […]

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Saturday

August 22, 2015

3:45 update Bet or pass Balt +4.5 11:45 Update Saturday MLB Plays Atlanta +196 Houston +113 Updated MLB Weightings 904 CHC – D Haren 905 MIL – T Jungmann 2 906 WAS – J Ross 917 TEX – Y Gallardo 918 DET – R Wolf 2+ 919 MIN – K Gibson 0 920 BAL – C Tillman 0 929 LAD – Z Greinke 930 HOU – S Kazmir 3 909 PHI – A Harang 910 MIA – J Nicolino 1 907 ARI – R DELGADO 908 CIN – A DeSclafani 1 921 KC – Y Ventura 922 BOS – M […]

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Friday

August 21, 2015

3:30 Update Well we just finished a tough week in the markets with friday capping it off down over 500 pts and the nasdaq down 174. It reminds me of when the U.S. got its credit rating dropped. The Market was dropping 400 to 500 pts a day every day. I was in Hawaii for […]

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Thursday

August 20, 2015

3:30 Update Two games in the NFL Tonight and so far I do not see anything that would lead me to either side of the games. Although that could change. I will update if I see anything develop. The market was down 350 today …It was a brutal day with the market plunging during the […]

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Wednesday

August 19, 2015

7:30 Update I have decided to pass on the Hilton contest this year. I have many things going on not the least of which is surgery that will keep me sidelined for several weeks. I have not decided when to do it..but my guess is in Oct. Also I have other matters that require my […]

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