Now we start the 2nd month of Baseball! What to expect?

Saturday we went 1-1 on our MLB plays for +.51  units. We won our 1 unit play on Seattle +101 6-0 with Miley pitching a 5 hit shutout. We lost our 1/2 unit play on Minn +111.

So we ended up April on the plus side just under 1 unit with very little volatility. It’s a bit early to draw any conclusions but we should get a good idea by the end of May how my tinkering has affected baseball handicapping.

I asked for suggestions and I received quite a few. I am going to sort through them all and implement what I consider the best of the bunch. If anyone has anything to add please send me an email.

One question I did get was regarding the NHL and why no plays postseason. My methods of handicapping the NHL do not show many bettable edges postseason. Unlike the NBA where the post season plays have been spot on the NHL at least to me does not provide that kind of opportunity.

As all of you by now know for me no edge no wager. It’s no fun working hard on handicapping and then blowing money just for the sake of gambling. That part of me has been long gone years ago:) So when I put out a play you will know that I at least feel I have a significant edge on the wager.

Handicapping services typically are very misleading as they post results that are curve fitted as opposed to real-time validation. Every once in awhile you run into a service that does it the right way but there is so much collusion going around now between tracking sites and handicappers that you have to take everything you read with healthy skepticism.

Myself I do the testing and validation myself as I will not rely on anyone else doing it. Its only after real time results have validated back testing that I will put plays as being positive EV. And as most of you know even then it’s no cake walk! Its a never ending process if you’re a serious handicapper. Nothing stays static for long.

Enough rambling this morning its back to work for me. Games are going off in 2 hours!

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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MLB 2016

Season
1 Unit
Sides 13-14 +2.71 Units
1/2 Unit
1/2 Unit 12-19 -1.65
1/2 Tot 2-2-1 - .09

Total +0.97

April
1 Unit
Sides 13-14 +2.71 Units
1/2 Unit
1/2 Unit 12-19 -1.65
1/2 Tot 2-2-1 - .09

Total +0.97

NHL 2015

Season +11.56
1/2 Unit -1.685

April
1/2 Unit
3-2 +1.79

March
Away Dog
2-4 -1.30
Home Fav
2-1 +0.75
1/2 Unit
3-11 -3.45

Setups:
2-0 +2.55
1/2 unit
1-3 -0.85

February

Away Dog
7-8 +0.65
Home Fav
0-1 -1.10

Bet or Pass
1-2 -1.03

January
Away Dog 9-11 +3.16
Home Fav 1-0 +1.00

December
Away Dog 13-10 +9.30

Bet or Pass
Away Dog 1-2 -.91

November -2.51

Away Dog
12-20 -1.51
Home Dog
0-1 -1.00

Totals
0-0-1

October +3.43

Away Dog
10-10 +5.79
Home Fav
1-1 -0.16
Home Dog
0-2 -2.00

NBA 2015

Regular Season 19-14-1
1/2 unit
Sides 14-12
Totals 9-6

NBA Playoffs :
Sides:
1 Unit
Sides 1-0
1/2 Unit
Favorite 0-1
Totals 2-0

April
1 Unit
Sides 1-0
1/2 Unit
Sides 6-5
Totals 4-2

March
Plays:
Road Dog 3-0

Setups:
Sides 1-2
Totals 3-5
1/2 Unit
Sides 8-9
totals 4-5

February
Away Dog
4-3

Bet or Pass
Totals
Under 2-1
Sides
2-1

January
Away Dog
3-4-1

December
Away Dog
5-7

November
Away Dog
1-0

Bet or Pass
Home Dog 1-1
Away Dog 11-13
Road Fav 0-1

October
Away Dog 2-0

Preseason
12-9-1 57.14%

NFL 2015

Post Season

Side
2-1
Bet or Pass
Under 1-0
Over 0-1

Regular Season

9-12

Bet or Pass
Home Dog
5-2
Away Dog
5-2
Home Fav
1-0
Total U
16-9
Total Ov
1-0

Hilton Contest

42-38

Preseason

Bet or Pass
Sides 3-4
Totals 2-3

NFL 2014

Playoffs
1/2 Unit
2-1
Bet or Pass
1-1

Regular Season
1 Unit
Away Dog
2-3
Home Dog
4-2

1/2 Unit
Away dog
2-1-1
Home Dog
4-4

Slight Edge
Home Fav
1-2
Road Dog
1-2
Home Dog
4-2

Bet or Pass

Home Fav
1-2
Road Dog
5-6-1
Home Dog
7-3

Hilton NFL Contest Picks
49-31 61.25%
Hilton Contest top 5 Fade
31-40

Preseason
Sides
2-3

Totals
1/2 Unit
Over 0-2

NFL 2012-2013

Hilton Contest
40-38-2

Plays
Sides
9-7-1
Totals
1-0

Totals Tracking setups

Totals
60+
1-1
55+
2-3

System 4
Sides:
1-1
Totals:
2-0

System X
Sides:
3-3-1
totals:
3-1

System 5
Sides
3-2-1
Totals
2-1

System 4 and X
Sides
1-1
Totals
1-0
System X and 5
Side
2-1-1
Totals
1-1
System 4 X and 5
Totals:
1-0

NFL Preseason

Sides 2-1
Totals 3-2

NFL 2011-2012

Picks 15-15

Hilton Nfl Contest
40-42-3

Tracking plays:
System 1
1-0
System 2
3-3
System 3
3-3
System 4
31-23
System 5
21-9-1
System 6
3-2
system 7
6-0
Two system Matches
9-6
Three system match
1-0

2010 NFL Record

Picks 20-11 64.51%

NCAA FB 2015

Bowl Games

5-7

Bet or Pass

1-0

Season Plays
9-11-1

Home dog
5-5
Road Dog
2-5
Home Fav
1-1-1

Totals
Under
1-0

Bet or Pass
Road Fav 1-0
Road Dog 11-11-2
Home Dog 2-2
Home Fav 2-4
Totals 1-3

NCAA Football 2014

Bowl Games
1 Unit
1-0
1/2 Unit
1-0

Bet or Pass
4-1

1 Unit
Home Fav 2-0
Home Dog 1-2
Away Dog 0-1

1/2 Unit
Home Dog 3-0
Road Dog 5-4
Road Fav 3-0
Home Fav 0-2

Slight Edge

Bowl Games
1-0

Reg Season
Road Dog 6-1-1
Home Dog 3-0

Pass or Bet
Bowl Games
Sides
2-1

regular Season
Side
10-10-1
Total
5-4

NCAA Football 2012

1 unit plays
Sides
11-14-1
Totals
2-0

1/2 unit plays
Sides
4-8

Bowl Games

1 Unit
1-0

1/2 Unit
1-2

Totals
2-2

Sys 4
Sides
13-7
Totals
5-7

Sys X
Sides
11-7
Totals
2-3

Sys 5
Sides 6-4
Totals 6-4

Combo
Sys X sys 5
Sides
3-1
Totals
1-0

Sys X sys 4
Sides
8-6

Sys 4 Sys 5
Sides
5-2
Totals
1-3

Sys 4 sys5 sys X
Sides
0-1
Totals
1-0

Ncaa Football 2011-2012

Regular Plays
11-4

1/2 unit plays
Sides
5-6
Totals
0-1

Tracking plays

System 1
Sides: 3-3
Totals: 2-2
Fav: 1-3
Dog 2-0

System 2
Sides: 4-4
Totals:
Fav
Dog 4-4

System3
Sides: 1-1
Dog 1-1

System 4
Sides: 64-54-1
Fav: 33-27-1
Dog 31-26
Bowl games
0-2

Totals:
26-37-2
After week 7
26-21-1
Bowl Games:
3-2

System 5
Sides 19-12-1
Totals 19-15-2
Fav:
Dog: 19-12-1
Bowl Games 4-2

System 6
sides 1-1
totals 1-4

System 7
10-11
Bowl Games 5-1

2 System Match
Sides 12-9
Totals 8-9-2
3 system match
Sides: 3-2
Totals:
4 system match:
1-0

2010 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD

Picks 18-15-1 54.54%

WNBA 2015

Bet or Pass

Road Dog 2-0
Home Fav 0-2

MLB 2015

World Series
2-1 +1.04

Playoffs

1-1 0.00

Bet or Pass
7-1 +6.56

September

Win Loss for Month -1.61

Home Dog 2-7 -5.12
Away dog 2-2 +3.49

August

Win Loss for Month -14.29

Home pick
1-0 +1.00
Home Fav
3-1 +1.92
Road Dog
9-17 -3.74
Home Dog
9-20 -5.19
Totals
Under
0-3 -3.18

July

Win Loss for Month -8.73

Home Fav
1-1 -0.33
Home Dog
2-6 -3.42
Away Dog
6-10 -1.71
Home Pick
0-1 -1.05
Totals
0-2 -2.22

June

Win Loss for Month +11.17

Home Pick
3-2 +1.28
Home Fav
3-1 +1.43
Road Fav
2-0 +2.00
Home Dog
4-5 +0.12
Away Dog
5-2 +4.30
Totals
2-0 +2.02

Bet or Pass
Away Dog
2-1 +2.04

May

Away Dog
6-16 -7.96
Home Dog
1-4 -2.86
Run Line
1-1 +.65
Pick Games
2-0 +2.00
Totals
1-1 -0.10

Win Loss for Month -8.27
Totals Setups (for tracking only)
1-6-1 -5.07
Bet or Pass
Home Dog
1-1 0.00

April

Away Dog
18-21 +0.38
Home Dog
0-4 -4.0
Run Line
0-2 -2.00

Win Loss for Month -5.62

Totals Setups (for tracking only)
7-5-1 +1.83

MLB 2014-2015

Playoffs

Slight Edge
1-2 -.90

2nd half of season

1 Unit
Home Dog 5-6 -.24
Road Dog 1-3 -2.21
Under 0-2 -2.00

1/2 Unit
Home Dog 17-15 +3.73
Home Fav 8-3 +2.37
Road Dog 10-18 +.32
Road Fav 0-1 -.585
Run Line 1-2 -.37
Under 6-5 + .265
over 4-3 +.525

Slight edge
Home Dog 1-3 -131
Road Dog 1-3 -138
Home Fav 2-0 +200
Road Fav 0-1 -118
Under 3-0 +300

First Half of Season
1 Unit Plays
Home Dog
11-21 -6.66 Units
Away Dog
6-6 +2.15 Units

1/2 Unit Plays

OVER
1-0 +.54
Under
2-3 -.56
Away Dog
3-9 -2.535 Units
Home Dog
7-4 +2.05 Units
Home Fav
1-3 -1.34
Home Pick
0-1 -.51

Leans:

Home Dog
5-1 +513

Road Dog
3-2 +164

Home Fav
0-1 -182

Home Pick
0-1 -105

Slight Edges

OVER
0-1 -100

Road Dog
8-7 +371

Home Dog
16-15 +283

Home Fav
9-10 -275

Pick H
2-1 +95

Major League Baseball 2013

Playoffs
all 1 unit plays
12-11 +2.66

2nd Half of season
1 Unit Plays
Home Dog <150 Home Fav 1/2 Unit playsHome Dog (<150) 12-24 -10.53 Sept Home Dog 5-4 +1.32 Home Fav (<-150) 4-5 -1.63 Tracking 11-12 -3.91 Road Dog C 2-9 -5.23 Tracking 5-4 +6.47 Totals: 5-8-3 -4.65 Tracking 1-2 -1.152nd Half -17.23Road Dog TotalsALL Sides 1 Unit 1/2 Unit 2-0 +2.00 TotalsTracking Home Dog <=30% <+150 32-37 +0.69Tracking Sept Home dog 8-6 +2.82Tracking Road Dog Tracking setups Setups A : 50-44 +18.18Setups B:Tracking Home Pick Setups 0-1 -104Tracking Totals Setups I do not bet theseSETUP A 0-1-1 -1061st Half of season 1 Unit Plays Home Dog <150 4-5 +0.00 Home Fav 0-1 -1.111/2 Unit playsHome Dog (<150) 22-23 +1.41Road Dog ( Under +150) 0-4 -4.00Home Pick (-104 to +104) 4-1 +2.95Home Fav <-150 7-5 +1.96Away Fav <150 0-1 -1.12Totals 1-0 +1.00ALL Sides 1 Unit 4-6 -1.11 1/2 Unit 29-33 -1.50 Totals 1-0 +1.00Tracking Sides Home setups: Setup A Home Fav 5-4 +0.11 Home Pick 0-3 -3.22Tracking Sides Away Setups A : 4-6 -1.07 Setups B: 1-1 +0.29 Setups C 2-1 +3.52Tracking Totals Setups I do not bet theseSETUP A 27-26-2 -1.74SETUP B 19-11 +7.17Tracking RUN LINE Setups I do not bet these 1-0 +1.65

MLB 2012

2nd half of the season
+3.95 units
1st half of season
-.36 Units
2012 season
+3.59 Units
World Series
1-0 +1.50 units

Plays

1 Unit
Home
19-16 +6.09
Away

Totals
10-12-2 -3.79

1/2 Unit size
Home
1-0 +1.00
Away
9-8 +4.96
Total

Totals
31-27-4

System setups
SysX sides
27-23 +14.32

SysX totals
31-29-4

Sys 4
Sides
Home
34-30 +10.00
Away
28-26 +5.75

Totals
40-42-5

Sys Y
Home
18-25 -4.92
Away
25-35 -5.10

1st half of season
PLAYS (bet 1/2 unit size for the season)
HOME
26-32 -0.96
AWAY
8-18 -5.88
Total
34-50 -6.81
Totals:
14-7 +6.45
A system X subset....(backtests at 55%)
12-4 75%
First week....a different methodology(abandoned early)
2-3

System setups
SysX sides
29-37 -0.18

SysX totals
34-31-4

Sys 4
Sides 55-92 -29.12
Totals
59-44-6 57.28%

Sys Y
1-2 -.78

Major League Baseball 2011

April 18-10 +11.64
May 8-14 -4.56
June 14-22 -5.09
July 14-16 +1.83
Aug 16-27 -7.47
Sept 11-18 -3.76
Postseason: 0-1 -1.00

Total: 81-109 -8.50

Other Sides( for tracking not wagering)
Home Favorite 22-19 +0.25
Home Dog 0-1 -1.00
Road Dog 6-6. +2.50
Total 28-24 +2.75

Totals: (for tracking not wagering)
9-9-1 -0.95

MLB 2010 Record

Plays 29-28 +13.32
Leans 50-55 +5.28

NBA 2014

Playoffs

Home Favorite
1-0

Regular Season

Slight Edge 2
Home Fav
12-5-1
Road Fav
6-10-1

Slight Edge

Road Dog
13-5

Home Dog
1-5

PreSeason

Slight Edge
3-0

NBA 2013

Playoffs

Plays
1/2 Unit
Home Fav
4-7
Totals
Under
3-4
Over
1-2

Slight Edge
Sides
Road Dog
2-0
Home Fav
2-2
Totals
Under
2-4
Over
1-0

Last 3 weeks of the season:

Lean
Home Fav
4-2
Road Fav
5-6

Slight Edge
Road Fav
3-4
Road Dog
1-0

Home Fav
3-0

1 Unit Road Dog
9-15-1

1st Half(for tracking)
11-12

1/2 Unit Short Fav
1-0

Leans Totals
1-3

Leans Short Dog
0-2
Leans Road Dog
1-1
1st half
0-1
Leans Home Dog
1-0
1st Half
1-1
Leans Short Fav
1-2
1st half
1-0
Leans Home Fav
1-0

Leans combined
4-2

NBA 2012 -2013

Post Season Tracking Plays ( I do not bet these)
Sides 6-8
Totals 11-8

Regular Season
Betting

1 Unit
2-3

1/2 Unit
Sides 18-9-2
Totals 0-1

Money Line Tracking Setups ( I do not bet these)
0-1 -100

Totals tracking setups (I do not bet these)

2-2

Tracking
1 unit plays
6-2
1/2 unit plays
3-3

Preseason Tracking Plays ( I do not bet these)

Sides:
Favorites: 1-2
Dogs: 1-2

Totals: 1-2

NBA 2011-2012

NBA Playoffs:

Plays:
Sides 3-0 +2.00
Totals 2-0 +2.00

System 4
Sides
1-0 +1.00
Totals
2-0 +1.00

System X
sides
Totals
1-0 +1.00

SysX
Sides 2-4
Totals 8-10

Sys 1A
1-2
Sys 1B
0-1

Sys 4
Before all star game
sides 14-9-1
totals 18-8-1
After all star game -5.0 units Lost
sides 17-16
Totals 22-31

Sys 5A
Sides: 0-2
Totals: 2-1

Sys 5B
Sides: 0-4
Totals: 6-1

sys 5C
Sides
2-1

Totals
3-4
sys7A
1-1

Sys 7B
10-5

Nba 2010-2011 Record

Sides 14-22 38.88%

Totals 24-22-1 52.17%

NHL 2014

Playoffs
Road Dog
3-4 +0.55

Slight Edge
25-45 -7.82

NHL 2013

Playoffs

Plays
1/2 Unit
Road Dog
2-5 -.895 Units

Slight Edge
side
1-3 -253
total
0-1 -125
1/2 Unit Plays
9-9 +318

Leans
3-3 +125

Slight edge
1-0 +128

NHL 2011-2012

Plays: 22-29 -2.04
Fav:
Dog: 22-29 -2.04
1/2 unit plays (startng 3/5)
5-9 -.75

Tracking plays:

System 4
-140 to +140
Fav 8-11 -4.26
Dog 21-33 -8.44

Other

Fav 2-1 +0.53
dog 17-37 -7.36

System 5
-140 to +140
5-1 +5.54
System 5A
1-1 +0.12
System 5B
6-3 +3.36

Other
1-3 -1.39
Fav
dog
1-3 -1.61

sys 4 and 5 match

-140 to +140

Other:
1-1 +.61

NHL 2011-2012

NHL Playoff Tracking setups
5-11 - 3.26

1/2 Unit Plays
Dogs
23-27 +3.85
Fav
3-5 -3.01

Total:
26-31 +0.85

Totals (Tracking Plays)
11-11-3 -1.97

NHL 2010-11 Record

Picks 57-58 +5.45

NCAA Hoops 2015

NCAA Hoops 2015

Season 144-121 -3 54.54%
November 34-20-1 62.9%
December 19-21 47.5 %
January 30-17-1 63.83%
February 29-22-1 58.33%
March 19-24 44.18%
Tournaments 11-17

March

Sides
Away Dog 11-20
Home Dog 5-4
Fav 1-0
Tournaments
Sides 10-12
Totals 2-6

Setups
Sides
1-6
Totals
11-14

February

Sides:
Away dog 22-15-1
Home Dog 4-5

Bet or pass
Sides
11-17
Totals
1-1

January
Sides:
Away Dog 17-12
Home Dog 11-2-1
Home Fav 0-2

Totals:
Under 1-0

Bet or Pass

20-25-2

December
Sides
Home Dog 3-2
Road Dog 5-5
Home Fav 0-1
Under
Totals 11-14

Bet or Pass
Road dog 2-2-2
Home Fav 1-0

November 34-20-1 62.9%

Sides
Road Dog 8-3-1 72.7%
Home Dog 0-1

Totals
Under 26-16 61.9%

NCAA BB 2014

Post Season Tournaments
1 Unit
Fav
1-0
Dog
0-1

1/2 Unit
Fav
2-0
Dog
1-1
Bet or Pass
6-8

Post Season Conference Tournaments
1/2 Unit
3-3-1
Bet or Pass
3-2

1 Unit
Sides
6-3

1/2 Unit
Totals
25-17
Sides
Pick
1-0
Home Fav
3-5
Road Fav
2-0
Road Dog
34-26-3
Home Dog
19-12

Slight Edge
Sides
5-7
Totals
1-2

Bet or Pass
Road Dog
17-15
Home Dog
11-7
Neutral F
0-0-1
Home Fav
1-7-1
Road Favorite
2-1
Totals
Over
0-1
Under
2-1

NCAA BB 2013

Plays
Sides
1 Unit
45-40-1

Totals
1 Unit
32-15

1st Half (for tracking) line =>+7
31-25-3

1/2 Unit
5-5
1st Half
6-3

Leans
7-9
Leans 1st HALF
5-6
Leans Totals
2-2

College Hoops 2012-2013

Tournament Play
Sides
1/2 Unit
0-1
Totals
1/2 Unit
2-4

Money Line setups
1-0 +160

Conference Tournaments

Sides:
1 Unit Play
1-0
1/2 Unit Play
2-4

Totals 1/2 Unit

3-2

Conference Play
1 Unit
15-19
1/2 Unit
36-24-1

Totals
1/2 Unit
22-12

Short Dog Money line Tracking Plays
5-7 -0.62

PreConference play
1 Unit
15-18

1/2 Unit
Sides
18-20

Totals:
1 Unit
0-1
1/2 Unit
0-2

College Hoops 2011-2012

March Madness
Sys X
4-2
SysX totals +.5 units
2-1
Sys 5B
2-5
Sys5A
1-2
Reg tr setups
2-1

Rest of Season
1 unit plays
34-20

1/2 unit plays
20-31-2

System X(1/2 unit)

Sides 44-33-2
Total 4-4-1
Totals while tracking 14-18-1 bets 1-1

Fav 9-12-2
Dog 30-12
Pick to 1.5 4-9

System 1A
6-6

system1B3

3-3-1

System 1C
1-0

System 4
1-1

Sys 5A
25-15
Totals
4-4

System 5B
13-28-2
Totals
6-9

System 5C
12-8
Totals
3-8

System7A
6-7
System 7B
4-2

Reg Tracking Plays(I do not bet these)
74-84-3

Pre Conference Play

1 unit plays
26-15-1 63.4%
Dogs
20-9
Fav
3-4
Short dogs:
1-4

1/2 unit plays
Dogs
4-3
Short Dogs
0-2
Fav
0-2

Tracking plays pre conference:

Sides
system 1A
4-2
system1B
4-0
System 4
13-13

System 5
1-1
system 5A
6-0
system 5B
15-11
system 5C
2-8-1

System 6
0-1

System 7
7-1
System 7A
0-1
System7B
0-1

Totals:

system 5A
1-1
system 5B
1-4

System 5C
6-3

2010-11 NCAA HOOPS RECORD

Total sides: 100-82-5 54.94%

WNBA 2011

WNBA (For tracking purposes only)(I do not bet these)
Home Favorites
0-1
Road Favorites
0-5
Short Road Favorites (up to -6.5)
0-3
Short Home Favorites
3-4
Short Road Dogs
0-1
Short home dogs
1-0

Total:
4-14

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