mlb

I forgot what a full schedule of College hoop games looked like!!! Very busy today handicapping games.

I forgot what it is like with a full slate of college hoop games on a Saturday along with all the other sports going!!! Finally catching my breath.

On Friday we had 1 one unit play in the NBA and it won.  Sacremento +6 kept it close and won 92-97.

So far today I have sent out 6 one unit plays. In addition for subscribers, my Hilton NFL Contest picks will be sent out shortly.

One email I received last night I would like to share:

“Just want to say thank you for all that you do. You’ve become a must read for me and I have gained so much insightful knowledge from reading your site. Thanks again and happy holidays!”

I always enjoy getting emails from readers of this site. It’s one of the rewarding consequences of spending a lot of time and energy developing this site over the years. Just that alone is enough to keep me motivated. My goal is as its always been to educate and help those of you that are driven like me to sports betting. We are a small group compared to the universe of humans out there.

So feel free to send me emails with any questions or comments!

I am going to cut this very short today as I still have much work to do staying organized and watching line movements.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

Another good month in sports betting for November!!!

3:30 Update

Two games tonight in College Football:

Ohio

Western Mich

Betting is 68% on the home Fav with the line moving from -17.5 to -16.5. So from the start, we have a reverse line move favoring Ohio. Models slightly favor Ohio. Public betting favors Ohio and Variables are neutral on the game. Without variables, I will not be playing the game. There was a time when a reverse line move and models might squeak by with a profit but not anymore. I am Passing.

Colorado

Washington

Betting is 61% on the home favorite with the line moving from -7 to -8.5-105. Models are split on the game, Public betting no edge, Variables are neutral. This game is a much clearer pass than the first game tonight. I am passing.

Good Luck Tonight whichever sides you take on the games.

 

Thursday we had 2 one unit plays and went 1-1. In the NBA we had The clippers +4 and they won outright 113-94. In the NHL we had Carolina +172 and lost 1-2 in a shootout. It was looking like a 2-0 day but Boston scored with 34 seconds left in the 3rd period:(

No plays have been sent out today nor are any pending.

We finished November with a good month. The final totals:

NCAA FB 5-6

NFL Sides 3-4

NFL Totals 1-1

NBA Sides 16-12-1

NBA Totals 2-0

NHL Sides 10-14 -0.16

NCAA BB Sides 2-1

NCAA BB Totals 26-14

On spread bets, we went 55-38-1 or +13.2 Units for the month.

Then we had the NHL money line for -0.16 units.

Anytime you can get a 13 unit gain for the month is a successful one.

I had discussed modeling via and question and answer with a subscriber which I thought was instructive. We had another exchange I would like to share:

“Wow! Thank you. This is incredibly insightful knowledge. You amaze me with your brilliance and your willingness to share. I’m going to get started soon on the things you mentioned here. Thank you for pointing me in the right direction on models. I realize models are by far the least important of the three factors you use, others being variables and public betting, but it I am still thrilled with the info you provided. I’m sure I’ll have many more questions to come. Hope you don’t mind!”

My response:

“I do not mind at all. The only thing I cannot share is my variables. As I discussed these are rarely talked about and for a good reason.

The best handicappers have developed their own the hard way. Variables are the most difficult to find but are the most rewarding of all techniques.

Most handicappers will not even discuss variables.  It is something they want very few to know about. The reason is of all the factors both tangible and intangible, variables are the most predictive of EV.

There are a few that you do not even have to consider anything else. Not many though but a few.

Also when you’re done analyzing the data on the prediction tracker I would be interested in seeing what you discover. My guess is of all the models they follow you might come up with maybe 2 that are predictive when their line is >? from the betting line. In addition, I doubt it will apply to all situations.

The most profitable will probably be road dogs. Least profitable Home favorites.

It’s possible that the only subset that will show a profit will be road dogs.

Now, if you want to break it down further, which you should, you can have the results as to spread ranges. So, pick to +3, +3 to +7 etc.

The reason to do that is in some sports big dogs do not fare very well. In some they do.

I do not recall how prediction tracker has their historical data set up but if they include the line it would be easy to incorporate that into your analysis.

The more you can include in your predictive routine the better chance you have of coming up with a positive EV subset for a few of the models when the prediction is > than X.

What is nice is many of the models nowadays are very sophisticated as a result of  fantasy sports. The best are not on prediction tracker and will never be. But many on there are not far behind the best.

If you’re looking to incorporate other raw data into your routine you can also look at :

http://sabr.org/sabermetrics/data

Years ago you had to pay dearly for getting historical data as sophisticated as what is given out for free on the net.

One word of caution. Not all data is equal. When I was active analyzing outside data I found that a certain % was just bad data.

So before you incorporate outside data you should google search to see if there are any reports of bad data from that source. The last thing you want to do is go through all this work and find that the data is bad!

When I say other data into your routine I do not mean data likes pass completions, fumbles etc. I mean % bet, line moves, reverse line moves, >50% on the dog, <50% on the favorite. These are examples of other data to incorporate into your routine.

Traditional data will not help one bit. A big waste of time. I know I have wasted a lot of time sorting through that and have found none that was predictive except perhaps efficiency numbers for the teams. But even then it is a mixed bag.”

 

This is a real interesting area of handicapping and I have just touched the surface. So I welcome all questions!

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

Subscribe Via Paypal


Subscription Options
Includes Free Trial



NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Over an 8 year period:

1 unit plays

Sides

121-95 56.02% with a 7.64% ROI

Totals:

48-28 63.15% 22.63 ROI

NFL

8 years beginning 2007

103-65 61.3% 18.75%ROI

THE SPORTS MONITOR LAST SEASON DOCUMENTED RESULTS

NFL

33-21 61.11% 18.33% ROI

http://www.thesportsmonitor.com/15nfl.html

Categories

Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

Contact Us

We're not around right now. But you can send us an email and we'll get back to you, asap.

Not readable? Change text.