Despite a full schedule of MLB games on Saturday I could only muster up one 1/2 unit play but it was an easy winner. Baltimore Under 9.5-106 won 5-2.
We also had two big move games on Saturday:
The closing line :
Both games we had nice moves are way. Both could have been played for middles that moves were that large. On Seattle, you could have had a 10c freeroll and on Tampa a 12c freeroll.
Not that you should have taken them but it illustrates the value these can be if you’re using them as a value filter on your own handicapping.
It’s final. I will be entering the NFL Hilton contest again this season. I have come very close several times. One year I was in 3rd going into the last few weeks. But then they only paid the top 20 and I faded and just missed. The 20 out of almost 1,000 entrants. Now they have started paying more places which although it reduces the award size it changes the dynamics a bit.
So if you would like to be considered for being a participant in the NFL Hilton contest send me an email with the amount you wish to give. $1,000 is open of the $1500 as I will be taking 1/3 myself of the entry.
Once I decide who is interested and for how much I will decide who to accept. It’s not going to be based upon first come first serve but will be based on convenience. Also, remember you get dollar for dollar for you % buyin. No Vig taken out by me. I just do not care to invest the entire 1500 myself cheapskate that I am:) Also I get asked about income tax consequences in the event we cash. Each person contributing will need to sign an agreement that not only shows their % interest in the entry but also that they are responsible for their part of any income taxes.
Ok, that is out of the way. I do not expect changing my mind on this. Seems I go through this every year at least the last several years.
Now I am going to put out a controversial play. This in no way shows what my position is on the two presidential candidates. I believe there is substantial value on the Republicans winning the presidency this year. Now that the Vice President picks are out-of-the-way it looks to me that the line should be closer to even money.
The 2/1 line is from Paddy Power which has the line now at Democrat 4/11 Republican 2/1. That’s quite a spread which is why it’s difficult to find value in betting politics. Without getting into the various factors I have considered as they are many. But one of the considerations with is not nominal is the analysis by Nate Sliver : http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Nate Sliver : http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
His evaluation is updated real-time as different polling is revealed. Right now he has the line at 58.3/41.7. That’s quite an overlay if you can get 2/1.
So my play is Republicans to win the Presidency getting 2/1.
Finally, again I am an Independent. I in no way am indicating my opinion on who to vote for or who I am voting for. This is a handicapping site and If I believe there is value I typically post it regardless of where it comes from. I have put out several Oscar plays over the years both of which were easy winners. If my memory is correct the two I posted were Natalie Portman Best Actress for “The Black Swan” I put that out before the nominations were disclosed and before Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards. The 2nd was Best Supporting Actor in “Million Dollar Baby” on Morgan Freeman.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
Friday we had 3 plays in MLB. Two 1 unit plays along with a 1/2 unit total play. These total plays are a completely different subset of plays and I am very optimistic about them. Next season most likely they will be 1 unit plays.
Baltimore -109 was a winner 5-1 and Milwaukee +152 lost 2-5. Our total was with Baltimore U9.5 -116 winning easily 5-1. So a 1/2 Unit gain for the day.
We also had 3 big move games:
San Diego +207
Toronto +150(should be Seattle)
The closing line on these game:
San Diego +231
Two went our way and one against.
Today no plays sent out yet while 2 big move games have been sent to subscribers.
I keep getting emails about how to use the big move games. The best way to use these is as filters for your own handicapping methods. All things being equal the big move games tend to be very predictive of the line moving so that the original line posted provides the best value. Oftentimes the move will be so large to offer middle opportunities.
I also have received some emails about the NFL and College Football special that I just posted. If you’re looking to subscribe for the football season it’s an exceptional value. You get all sports from now until 9/1 thrown in along with the week or two after 12/31 for the remaining football games.
Now I know I have shifted a bit from the handicapper that gave all plays out for free. And I know it has disappointed some. But the cost and time of what I do has become a full-time endeavor. The yearly cost alone would be something that I would be embarrassed to divulge. But for what I do everything that I use is essential in my handicapping methods. They have become more and more advanced as the years go by.
So I had no choice. In addition, I have been offered a substantial amount of money to do handicapping in house for several large handicapping syndicates. This runs counter to all that I wish to accomplish withmy skills. So I have chosen this route instead. The cost is minimal compared to the other handicapping services out there. Not only that I will match my long-term handicapping record against any of them for 1/5 to 1/10 of the cost.
Enough promoting but let me get to something a bit more serious. This is something you need to sink into your psyche before you subscribe. There is no easy money here!!! Betting on sports is far from easy money. It’s a grind and requires very disciplined bet sizing. Otherwise, you will not have a chance.
But I assure you with this service you will get 100% transparency along with my continued 100% effort at finding value wherever it might be.
Also, I am working on a different chat client as slack has too many rules to get setup and going. I will have that worked out soon
I almost forgot…..I have had the first urge to join the Hilton NFL Contest again this season. End of July and that’s about time the Bug starts to hit. The way this works is the entry to the HILTON NFL CONTEST is $1500.00. I sell 2/3 of the entry for $1,000.00 and that gives the person buying the entry 2/3rd of any money won. In other words, you get dollar for dollar. No Vig taken out. If anyone has an interest please send me an email. It’s 50/50 whether I enter but the odds are getting higher each day. It’s not first come first serve. I am going to take participants based upon the $amount and ease of finalizing the transaction.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
THE BEST IN THE BUSINESS FOR NFL!!!!!
NFL and COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD
Over an 8 year period:
1 unit plays
121-95 56.02% with a 7.64% ROI
48-28 63.15% 22.63 ROI
8 years beginning 2007
103-65 61.3% 18.75%ROI
The Sports Monitor Last season Documented Results
33-21 61.11% 18.33% ROI
FOOTBALL SUBSCRIPTION SPECIAL!!!!!
Subcription Special for The Football Season
Thank you for expressing an interest in the NFL and NCAA Football plays this fall.
The Subscription is $49.00 a month beginning any time you wish to start. That includes all
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As a special for the Football Season a lump sum of $196.00 will subscribe you to all plays in all covered sports from the time you sign up until the last football game is played.
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If you subscribe now you get the remaining portion of July and all of August. So the sooner you subscribe the more value the offer has!!!
One final note to potential subscribers. Even though the results of the last 8 years for both the NFL and College football have been solid there is no guarantee that this will continue. Its called gambling!!! But for those of you that are familiar with my handicapping you know that along with transparency you will get the very best I have to offer.
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