Tuesday

October 21, 2014 3:04 pm · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in Miscellaneous

5:20 Update

NHL Setup
Slight Edge
Florida +152

4:50 Update

NHL Setup
Slight Edge
Arizona +137
Vancouver +118

NHL Setup

Slight Edge
Toronto +126

RickJ

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Monday

October 20, 2014 5:43 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in INVESTING,NBA,NFL,NHL

3:30 Update

Sunday was a disappointing day. 1-4 in the Hilton contest bringing my record to 20-15 or 57.14%. With over 1400 entrants there is no question that I will need to be over 60% to cash. So need to turn it around this week.

Hilton top 5 fades went 2-3.

Tonight one game in the NFL

Houston
Pitt

55% of the betting is on Pitt with the line moving from -4 to -2.5 -117. You can find a +3 at some books but will need to lay a bit more then -110. Variables favor Houston. Models favor Houston. Public is pretty much neutral.

At +3 the game for me would be a bet or pass on Houston. At +2.5 a complete pass.

In the NBA there is a setup tonight

Slight Edge:

Charlotte +6

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

Swing Trade Update

Sold Position 4 of SSO at 109.24

Swing Trade Update

Sold Position 3 of SSO at 108.30

Swing Trade update:

Sold Position 2 of SSO at 107.88

RickJ

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Sunday

October 19, 2014 6:54 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in College Football,NBA,NFL,NHL

8:15 Update

A few comments on todays games…..

The poker player fade is Atlanta +6.5. Without exception players at the table are in love with Baltimore under a touchdown.

Also if your in love with Seattle -6 as 82% of the bettors are I would temper that a bit. In the long run its very hard to fade NFL teams that have less then 20% of the betting on them no matter how good the other side looks. Also the better the favorite looks in this situation the better I have found the dog to be. I cannot bet on St Louis as my models point to Seattle. However St Louis is a bet or pass for me regardless what the models are saying.

A busy day yesterday with plenty of setups. As far as plays our 1 unit play on utsa +11 was a winner.

slight edges went….NHL 0-1 NBA 2-0 NCAAFB 2-0

Bet or Pass went…..NCAAFB 2-6

Now onto the NFL

Hilton Top 5

KC
IND
NYG
SEA
BAL

Top 5 fades are now 14-17 slowly moving toward 500 off a bad start for the faders.

PUBLIC Numbers:

Seattle 83
Arizona 76
Ind 76
Chicago 68
Buffalo 67
Balt 65
Cle 65
KC 58
NO 56
Was 56
GB 55
Dallas 54
SF 53

I am fading 4 of the top 5 and going with 1 of the top 5. That is encouraging for the day.

Going into week 7 I am 19-11. A respectable 63.33%

This week I think the best way to describe it is a mishmash. At least it was for me. My models disagreed on almost all the public number fades. So I had to decide which to put the most weight to and I decided to put the weight on variables and public numbers…and pretty much disregard the models. We will see If I made the right decision:)

As far as plays today……Maybe a play in the afternoon.

Bet or Pass

St Louis +6

Slight Edge

Oakland +3

I will update if anything develops for the day. Also Have not started looking at the NHL or NBA…maybe some setups there.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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Saturday

October 18, 2014 7:38 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in College Football

3:40 update

Slight edge
NHL
Colorado +137 L

NBA
Dallas +5.5 W
Miami +6 W

1:30 update

Hilton nfl picks

1. Oakland +3.5
2. St. Louis +6.5
3. Cinci +3
4. Giants +6.5
5. Atlanta+6.5

12:30 update

Slight edge
Tcu -10.5 W

Bet or pass
Georgia -3 W

12:15 update

Bet or pass

Indiana +16 L
Kent st +3 W
Smu +12.5 L

8:59 UPdate

Sat NCAA FB Play
1 Unit
UTSA +11 W

Nothing again developed on Friday. Full slate of games today in College football

9:00 Games

Bet OR Pass

Tulsa +2 L
Oklahoma -7 L
W. Kent -3.5 L
Wake forest +6 L

Slight Edge
Tulane +18 W

I will update shortly before game times.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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Friday

October 17, 2014 9:49 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in College Football,INVESTING

Swing trade update

I exited 1 of 4 positions in SSO at 107.70

Nothing developed on Thursday.

Two college football games tonight

Fresno
Boise

Betting is 53% on the road dog and the line has moved from -15-110 to -17-107. Models lean toward boise. Variables lean towards fresno. A Pass for me.

Temple
Houston

Public is on the road dog 68% and the line has moved from -6 to -8.5. Variables are split on the game and models slightly favor Temple.

If it wasnt for this one variable that points strongly towards Temple I would say Houston would be a bet or pass. But The Variable complicates things and makes the game a pass for me. Now its early and things could change depending on what the numbers are before game time.

Swing trade update:

SSo is up 2.7% as I write this. But the market has been so oversold no triggers yet for an exit. If we get a strong move up before the close a trigger is possible. However certainly if we hold our ground today at these levels and get a gap up monday morning exits will most likely trigger. We will see….enjoy the roller coaster ride!

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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Thursday

October 16, 2014

Nothing at all Wednesday. Tonight we have three football games: Jets New England The betting is 67% on New England. The line has moved with the action from -8.5 to -9.5. Variables are split on the game but favor New England slightly. Models favor New england. Public numbers are Neutral for betting purposes. I am [...]

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Wednesday

October 15, 2014

Swing Trade Update…..Added postion #4 in SSO. I am now all in on this swing trade…just a question of seeing how it plays out. I added at 103.30. Tuesday we split on our slight edges. Losing on St Louis +113 in MLB but winning with Calgary +159 in the NHL. Looking over baseball nothing today. [...]

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Tuesday

October 14, 2014

4:00 Update One game tonight in College football Laf Texas st betting is on texas st 59%. The line is now -2.5 at most books. I am completely neutral on the game…Nothing that leads me to either side. NHL Slight Edge Calgary +159 Monday we won our slight edge in the NHL with Colorado +153 [...]

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Monday

October 13, 2014

3:20 Update One game tonight in the NFL SF St Louis The betting keeps pounding the road favorite tonight and it stands at 81%. The line has moved from -3.5 even to -3 -125 on Pinnacle. The line is -3 -120 to -130 at most books. St Louis +3.5 is a pick in the hilton [...]

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Sunday

October 12, 2014

4:30 update Looks like a 2-2 day in the hilton contest with the rams +3.5 tomorrow night. One game tonight Giants Phil Phil has 49% of the betting and the line has moved from -3 to – 1.5 My models are split on the game with a slight edge on phil at 1.5. Variables favor [...]

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Saturday

October 11, 2014

Final update In the nhl i have decided i am not betting it this season. However i am going to put ou plays as slight edges. Slight edge Edmonton +166 L Hilton nfl contest picks ( in the order i liked them at the time) 1. Houston +3(lost) 2. Buffalo +3 3. St louis +3.5 [...]

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Friday

October 10, 2014

5:30 update Three games tonight in college football Wash st Stanford An interesting game that has 61 % of the betting on the road dog. The line has moved with the action from – 17 to -16.5. Normally with 39% of the betting on the home favorite I would be looking for an excuse to [...]

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