Wednesday

July 30, 2014 7:43 am · 1 comment

by RickJ · 1 comment

in INVESTING,MLB

3:30 Update

We didnt fare very well in the two early games losing both. Two half unit plays lost.

Tonight another two 1/2 unit plays

Wedn MLB Plays
1/2 Unit
Baltimore +122
Texas +124

One game to not The white sox are +228. Variables are very strong in favor of the White sox..for me it the dog or a pass. I am passing.

10:30 Update

Two more early games today. Houston is a game I am looking for any excuse to wager on. At only 22% of the betting on them with a reverse line move it almost looks like a no brainer. However variables do favor Houston today also there is one variable that points strongly to Oakland…so I am passing. But for me it would be Houston or a pass…I am passing.

The other game is San Francisco. Public is 68% on San Fran and the line has barely moved. Variables favor San Fran…for me San Fran or pass….I am passing

8:50 Update

The numbers have changed a bit on the Phil game

Wedn MLB Play
1/2 Unit
Phil +147

Tuesday we won our 1 unit play on Minn +179. We lost our 1/2 unit play on the run line on Detroit.

Today some early games. Very early:)

Wednesday MLB Play
1/2 Unit
Miami +138

Slight Edge
MLB
Phil +146

Our swing trade is a bit down this morning. But of course Yellen could turn it around a bit later today:) Or of course we could get a good dip from here depending what she has to say.

I will update a bit later.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

{ 1 comment }

Tuesday

July 29, 2014 10:12 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in INVESTING,MLB,NFL

4:00 Update

Tuesday MLB Play
1 Unit
Minn +179

Two other games of interest are Houston and Texas…These do not qualify for even a slight edge but for me it would be the dog or a pass….I am passing.

3:30 Update

Tues MLB Play
1/2 Unit
Detroit -1.5 +129

Swing Trade Long

Buy 550 SPY 197.10

Monday we had an easy 1/2 Unit win with Miami +129. Only down 6-0 going into the bottom of the 7th Miami made a great comeback with 2 in the 7th 1 in the 8th and down by 3 scored 4 in the bottom of the 9th to win the game!

Also our Slight Edge with Houston +169 was a 7-3 winner.

Today a bit early as all the games are this evening. But there are a few that look good right now. But the numbers will change. I will update later this afternoon.

I mentioned the potential for a swing trade long at the end of the trading day yesterday but the market did not cooperate and rallied into the close. So back to waiting mode for index swing trades.

I am still getting emails regarding the NFL Hilton contest. The 1000 is taken.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

{ 0 comments }

Monday

July 28, 2014 8:06 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in INVESTING,MLB,NFL

3:30 Update

Monday MLB Play
1/2 Unit
Miami +129

Slight Edge
MLB
Houston +169

Sunday our 1/2 unit play on the Angels as a home fav won 2-1. Our two slight edges both lost.

Today one early game Atlanta has 85% of the betting on them and the line has moved with the action -153 to -199. My models have nothing on Lane the pitcher for San Diego. Variables favor Atlanta. A pass for me.

Tonight some possibilities and I will update later this afternoon.

Over the weekend I had a phone call from someone here in Las Vegas that wanted the entire 1000 available for a 2/3rds interest in the Hilton contest. Since this is going to be the easiest for me that is the way I am going. I do appreciate the emails requesting an interest but this year now everything is now closed.

Depending what the stock market does we may get a swing trade long. If it goes back to test or break the lows of the day then a long at the close is likely. I will update before the close if I take the trade.

Good Luck Today

Rickj
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

{ 0 comments }

Sunday

July 27, 2014 7:44 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in MLB,NFL

1:00 Update

Only two games of interest in the remaining games of the day

San Diego Has 26% of the betting on them with a reverse line move from +170 to +156. However variables strongly favor Atlanta..so a pass

Texas has 12 % of the betting on them and so far no reverse line move but the line has moved with the action now +177. Variables point strongly in favor of texas. For me it would be texas or a pass. I am passing as there is one small variable that points to Oakland.

Oh yes one other game bears mentioning

Seattle has 27% of the betting on them and they are the home favorite. Variables and models favor Seattle. For me its Seattle or a pass. I am passing. If we had a reverse line move on Seattle I would be betting them. But the line has moved with the action.

11:20 Update

Sunday MLB Play
1/2 Unit
Angels -122

10:30 Update

Some games of interest

Boston has only 28% of the betting on them as a road dog but the betting has moved contrary to the betting from +147 to +126. With Webster going I have very little in the way of hints as to the right side. However for me it would be Boston or pass. I would not want to fade the road dog RLM on Boston

The cubs have 14% of the betting on them with a reverse line move from +156 to +143.

Slight Edge
MLB
Cubs +143

Minn has <50% of the betting on them but its close at 49. We have a move contrary to the betting from -121 to -127/ for me it would be Minn or pass.

Thats it for now.

9:25 Update

In the three earliest games the one that stands out to me is Arizona -118. Variables strongly point to Arizona as the right side and this is supported by a 45% betting on Arizona with a reverse line move from +106 to -118. Historically this has been a very positive Ev set of events. The only thing keeping me from wagering on the game is my models point to Philadelphia. But as with the other sports models are the least predictive of the final result. Variables and % betting numbers along with analysis of line moves in relation to % betting numbers historically have had far more predictive results.

Slight Edge
MLB
Arizona -118

Friday we had a good day. 3-1 on our half unit plays with the only loss being Texas as a big dog. Colorado and colorado Under both won. Our run line play on Atlanta -1.5 +124 also won.

Our slight edge on the cubs lost.

Today does not look like yesterday where the morning showed quite a bit of possibilities. Today they are hard to find at least right now. Its only 8 and things certainly can change.

I will update shortly before the first morning games.

The Hilton NFL Contest starts soon and I have mentioned many times that if your an NFL handicapper either professionally or for fun you should really consider entering. Its a positive EV tournament as the Hilton takes nothing out of the pool but actually adds funds to the pool. Granted its not easy to cash as they only pay the top 20. But its hard to find something that is positive ev these days.

If you live out of Las Vegas there is no need to stay away from the tournament as there are Proxy services available for a reasonable fee that will allow you to enter and place picks with no difficulty.

I highly recommend lasvegascontestproxy.com . I know the owner personally and can you will get the highest degree of service at a reasonable cost. Also I have no interest financially in the company nor do I get any remuneration for recommending them.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: Rickjsportplays
Twitter: Rickjswingtrade

{ 0 comments }

Saturday

July 26, 2014 7:15 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in MLB

4:30 update

Sat MLB play
1/2 unit
Texas +165
Colorado +109
Colorado U10.5 -120

3:30 update

Sat MLB play
1/2 unit
Atlanta -1.5 +126

12:30 update

Slight edge
MLB
Cubs -126

Friday we won our 1 unit play on the Cubs +124. We split our 1/2 unit plays on the totals.

For those of you that enjoy exciting finishes our under 10 in the colorado game was cruising along toward an easy win with Colorado winning 1-0 going into the bottom of the 7th. But 7 runs in the bottom of the Seventh along with bases loaded top of the 9th with nobody out and it looked dismal for the under. But a miracle happened and we covered:)

Today plenty of games and plenty of games that look pretty good today but its a bit early.

Once in awhile some things happen at the poker table that bears mentioning. Playing Omaha 8 the other day I flopped top set Kings vs bottom set 3s. A three came on the turn and I lost. Now this along would not be worth mentioning as it happens enough that it is not really a rarity. But the very next day the flop comes K33. I flopped four threes…and another player flopped King full! Justice in just a day:)

Only 1 early game and there is nothing I can see either way on the Yankee game.

I see in the chat that there have been some attempt at defending my handicapping abilities against unknowns that have a compulsion to post rude comments. Do not bother as it will not do any good. The only way to prevent this would be to send the unknowns to psychotherapy to undue the abuse they obviously went through during childhood. I mean to feel the need to act out in this manner that requires reading my posts….waiting for a losing streak and then post rude comments …does require a lot of effort and time. Considering that I am sure that I am not the only handicapper they are following to do this type of behavior to. Must be a full time job for them to try to satisfy that deep hole they have that normal people do not have:)

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

{ 0 comments }

July 25, 2014

5:00 update Friday MLB play 1/2 unit Colorado U10 +101 Noon Update Friday MLB Play 1 Unit Cubs +124 1/2 Unit Cubs U 9.5-120 Thursday our 1/2 unit Run Line play on Seattle lost. Our Slight edge on Philly won. Today a full slate of games. If the numbers hold there will be some plays [...]

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Thursday

July 24, 2014

Final update Thursday MLB play 1/2 unit Seattle -1.5. +157 Wednesday we went 0-2 on our 1/2 Unit plays and our slight edge on Milwaukee lost. The white sox was a close one but Arizona never really had a chance. They teased us scoring 5 after falling behind 7-0…but that was it. Today a few [...]

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Wednesday

July 23, 2014

4:00 update Nothing else today 11:00 Update A few more early games….On Seattle game I see nothing that interests me. variables slightly favor Seattle. Colorado nothing either. Although there is a strong variable on the over on the game. If my models were neutral I would bet on the Over. But they slighly favor the [...]

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Tuesday

July 22, 2014

Final Update Tuesday MLB Plays 1 Unit Arizona +107 Colorado U 10.5 +102 3:30 Update Tuesday MLB Plays 1 Unit Pitt U8 +101 1/2 U Pitt -114 Three more plays look good but to be on the safe side I am going to watch the numbers until about 30 min before game times. Monday we [...]

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monday

July 21, 2014

Monday MLB Play ARizona +118 1/2 Unit Rickjshandicappingpicks.com 3:30 Update I have to leave for a bit but will be back for the later games. Up to the 5:30 games Monday MLB Play 1/2 unit Colorado U10.5 +111 Minn is very close to a play but I may not be able to monitor it.The public [...]

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Sunday

July 20, 2014

Final Update Nothing has developed in the St Louis game….numbers have a bit of a ways to go and its only 3 min to game time…I am passing on the game 1:30 Update Yankees and Miami both are in as winners but Minn is down by two with a few innings left. In tonights game [...]

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Saturday

July 19, 2014

3:30 update Sat MLB play 1 unit Minn+130 AtlantaU 7 -127 Slight edge Boston U 8-110 12:40 update Sat MLB play 1/2 unit St louis +132 Friday no plays developed but our 2 slight edges split 1-1. Minn as a home dog was not close but the under on the angel game was good..but we [...]

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