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What is this?? A gap down in the Stock Market this morning!!!

A late start for me this morning. The markets are gaping down a bit but nothing significant. The only two items of interest so far are USO -1.56% and IBB +.48%.

I added several swing longs yesterday despite the markets being overbought short term. As long as this market continues non-stop on the upside I am going to go with the flow. But cautiously:)

Today I am contemplating a gap fill play on the ES as the circumstances look pretty good for that this morning.

On the political front not much has changed. Just more of the same insanity. Can the U.S. take 4 to 8 years of this craziness? We will see.

One other political wager I was thinking about that I think would almost be the nuts is the Senate gaining seats in 2018. I have not looked at the odds but I imagine right now you can get a nice price which will not be available a year from now. I even think that Republicans have a shot at hitting the 60 number in the Senate in 2018.

I know that will disappoint some but I am looking at this only from a betting standpoint and not in any way what I would like to see. I only look for edges.

The two primary reasons I like this wager is:

1. People have underestimated Trump at every juncture. He is gaining in popularity per the Rasmusson poll which I consider the best of the bunch. In addition, his willingness to take his ideas directly to the people is working out well for him.

2. There are two massive programs going on now that will hurt the Democrats immensely. The illegal immigration change, and also the investigation into voter fraud. Remember Trump broke the firewall in 2016 in the upper midwest. Without the help of voter fraud, and losing their firewall things have the potential to really cascade to the downside for the Dems.

3. Then as a final note, the Dems obstructionism will not bode well for them where Dems are in the Senate but Trump carried their state.  The obstructionism does not bode well for them in other parts of the midwest either.

As a final note, it looks like Ellison has the lead as head of the DNC. I am afraid this will also not sit well with moderate Democrats.

I see nothing to indicate that the Dems will not take a real beating in 2018. But it is early and things can change. But you’re going to be getting a nice price. An overlay …which is all any gambler can hope for!

I got off on a tangent but politics and the markets are intertwined. One needs to know which way the wind is blowing to better adapt to these changing markets.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Over an 8 year period:

1 unit plays

Sides

121-95 56.02% with a 7.64% ROI

Totals:

48-28 63.15% 22.63 ROI

NFL

8 years beginning 2007

103-65 61.3% 18.75%ROI

#4 OVERALL for 2016!!!

See sportswatchmonitor.com for documented 2016 in all sports.
#4 of all handicappers for all results for 2016!!!

THE SPORTS MONITOR LAST SEASON DOCUMENTED RESULTS

NFL

33-21 61.11% 18.33% ROI

http://www.thesportsmonitor.com/15nfl.html

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Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

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