Tuesday

September 1, 2015 4:37 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in INVESTING,MLB

10:00 Update

No plays on Monday but today a few games look good to me

Tuesday MLB Plays
Boston +121
Cinci +138

Early MLB Weightings

931 ARI – P Corbin
932 COL – Y Flande 1+
917 TB – D Smyly 0
918 BAL – C Tillman 0
915 CLE – Co Anderson 2+
916 TOR – M Estrada
901 PHI – A Harang 1
902 NYM – J Niese
903 MIA – J Nicolino 0
904 ATL – M BANUELOS 0
919 NYY – M Pineda
920 BOS – R Porcello 3
905 CIN – A DeSclafani 2+
906 CHC – D Haren
907 PIT – G Cole 0
908 MIL – J Nelson 0
925 SEA – R Elias 1
926 HOU – S Feldman
923 DET – J Verlander 0
924 KC – J Cueto 0
921 CHW – C Sale
922 MIN – T Duffey 1
909 WAS – J Ross 1
910 STL – M GONZALES
911 ARI – R De La Rosa
912 COL – K Kendrick 0+
927 LAA – M Shoemaker 0
928 OAK – C MARTIN 0
913 SF – M Bumgarner
914 LAD – Z Greinke 1
929 TEX – Y Gallardo 0
930 SD – A Cashner 0

In the markets the dow is off over 400 points. I have not traded today and most likely will not. Its tempting to put on the first half of my spy/sso trade but I think its still a bit early for that. I do have a swing trade I might put on with a stock that is showing quite a bit of relative strength but I want to wait until close to the close if I do put it on. Today has the potential to be even uglier and if it does no trade to the long side is going to be any good. So its watch and see.

After a tough August for the markets (down about 6%) starting a new month does not appear to be the answer. The market is off over 2% this morning. It looks like the 2 day bounce is over and we are heading for the lows. Much of this is dependent on China and what the fed does in the middle of the month. But so far they are proceeding ahead with interest rate hikes. They committed to these hikes way earlier then they should have and now I imagine they feel they have to maintain credibility. It would be nice if they would just remain quiet until the fed meeting but they want their day in the sun with the media. Its helping to cause havoc in the markets.

How to trade this? Well I tried a small trade yesterday with a stock that was showing quite a bit of relative strength. With the financials up it looked like a reasonable trade but it never had a chance. I exited before the close and took a small loss.

In this environment if you plan on taking a trade you have to be willing to take a loss. If you do not have that capability then you cannot trade. I only say this because I am familiar with human nature. You see a large % of poker players that when they get in the lead they start looking at their watch and trying to figure out when to quit. (The extreme was in a three handed game a player won the first hand and quit)! But when these same players are losing they will not even leave their seat to head to the bathroom. Ive seen these players that quit when ahead after a short time play for days trying to get even. Thats human nature. In poker games they get lucky and the game breaks…in the markets you do not have that stop gap…it ends when you go broke. Which in markets like this can happen very fast.

So today…… I am waiting for mean reversion trading to set in. If the market stays down today over 2% I will most likely start looking tomorrow to start initiating setups. If we get a bounce from the lows then we are back to no mans land and wait. If a few of my indicators trigger I may take a stab at another short term trade today. Thats my plan.

Traders are going broke right and left in this market right now.Do not be one of them! The market has had an unbelievable run to the upside over the last few years…its hard to shift gears but you have to know how to do that. Similar to playing 3 handed and then in 5 min the game fills up. If you do not switch gears you will not like the results.

If you want to follow my swing trades just send an invite to RICKJSWINGS for a two week free trial.

For those of you whose trial is running out you can sign up for 24$ a month through Paypal. Just send to my email address: [email protected]

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)

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Monday

August 31, 2015 9:22 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in INVESTING,MLB

No plays today

Sunday we went 0-2 on our MLB plays losing Detroit 9-2 and losing Seattle 6-5 in extra innings.

Today a bit early for plays but here are the Weightings:

963 CLE – D Salazar 2
964 TOR – D Price
965 TB – C Archer
966 BAL – W Chen 3.5
967 NYY – I Nova
968 BOS – E Rodriguez 1
951 MIA – C Narveson 1
952 ATL – M Foltynewicz
953 PHI – J Eickhoff 2
954 NYM – B Colon
955 CIN – M Lorenzen 2
956 CHC – K Hendricks
969 SEA – V Nuno 0
970 HOU – D Keuchel 0
957 WAS – G Gonzalez 2+
958 STL – J Lackey
959 ARI – R Ray
960 COL – C Bettis 1
971 LAA – H Santiago 0
972 OAK – F Doubront 0
973 TEX – C Lewis
974 SD – T Ross 1
961 SF – J Peavy 1
962 LAD – B Anderson

The markets opened down over 1% this morning but have recover some but still off 1/2% . After last weeks rebound the question now is does the market roll over and test the lows or continue its rally up to the next support level and then the 200 day MA. Its anyones guess. Although Today I did put on a swing long as financials were positive today despite the down day so far. Usually if financials are leading a big move down during the day is not likely. So right now I am leaning toward a continuation to the upside of anywhere from 20 to 40 pts. But its certainly not with conviction. But I now have on 1 swing trade long and am not likely right now to increase that very much. This volatility is not very good for swing trading as you tend to get whipsawed on these moves.

I am not only looking at trades that I feel offer the best risk reward at the moment and ones that I can easily turn into a day trade if circumstances change. For instance if financials tanked!

I did get quite a few questions regarding my post on bankroll requirements and swing trading. This week is going to be a busy week for me so will not have a lot of time to spend. Trying to get things caught up before I leave for Ca on thursday.

If you want to follow my swing trades just send an invite to RICKJSWINGS for a two week free trial.

For those of you whose trial is running out you can sign up for 24$ a month through Paypal. Just send to my email address: [email protected]

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)

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Sunday

August 30, 2015 7:06 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in INVESTING,MLB,NFL

4:30 Update

Well the markets opened a little over an hour ago and they are down over 1%. The good news is I am flat waiting for a better opportunity for a swing trade.Right now for me the market is in no mans land. We had a rebound after a historic move to the downside. The rebound was over two days and was another historical two day move. This is not a market that you should be dancing around in. Trades should be planned with risk sizing extra careful.

My thoughts are at some point we head down and test the lows. I do not think its going to be a straight line but this two day rebound does not happen in a healthy market. Now since this market is also news driven any announcement by the fed of no interest rate hike this year or more quantitative easing and then its blastoff to the upside. But so far the fed has been more toward the side of an interest rate increase and they may have backed themselves into a corner for a .25 rate hike this year. Investors are begging for Helicopter Ben to be back at the helm!

My plan is to watch and wait for the next oversold opportunity to initiate mean reversion trades. As far as swing trades I am going to wait a bit until the volatility settles down. This back and forth 200 pts in a day is not a conducive environment for swing trading. I may however look for some day trades or maybe two days to take advantage of what looks like a decent edge.

Traders are getting annihilated right now. Many are basing their decisions on hope and prayer. Not usually a good way to go.

I did get an instructive email the other day:

“Hi Rick,

I’ve seen you talk a lot about proper bankroll in terms of sports betting. When it comes to swing trades, what do you think would be the minimal starting amount to follow your swing trades if you have a low cost brokerage firm?”

My response:

My trading bankroll is $500,000. So…my suggestion if you wanted to follow my trades is just take your starting bankroll for trading and what ever % it is to mine would be the sizing on your trades.

Or another approach. Lets say you have 50,000 investment bankroll. Then risk no more then 1% on the trade and let you bankroll rise and fall with your trades. The 1% will increase and decrease accordingly.

You cannot do that on mean reversion trading since there is no risk amount so I would do the sizing in the first paragraph on those trades.

In addition you can also take the trades with 3x etf on indexs. Or in the case of highly liquid stocks you can trade options. Keep in mind however that option trading is pretty tricky. Not only is their a valuation concern but the commissions compared to the stock trade itself is a lot more. 10 option contracts in and out is 41$ where I trade compared to the equity trade being 4.00!

Finally I would stay away from margin trading. Its tempting but margin trading is many traders downfall. They get over leveraged and then hit something like we have this month and its lights out. Look at having a rule of no trading on margin as another way to reduce risk.

Keep in mind that no matter how you reduce risk there is always the situation with gaps on the opening. So no matter how careful you are in reducing risk there will be times that you take a hit larger then expected

This is just to give you a rough idea. There are plenty of good articles on position sizing and risk management for trading.

If you want to follow my swing trades just send an invite to RICKJSWINGS for a two week free trial.

For those of you whose trial is running out you can sign up for 24$ a month through Paypal. Just send to my email address: [email protected]

9:30 Update

Sunday MLB Plays
Detroit +184
Seattle +155

There are still 2 weeks left before the Westgate Super Contest starts – If you need a proxy service to enter – “lasvegascontestproxy.com” I know the owner of the service and can highly recommend this Proxy service. So if you’re from out of town…or out of the country and have the urge to enter the Westgate NFL contest this season …give them a call. I am not affiliated with this service nor do I get any remuneration for recommending them.

Saturday we had no MLB plays. In preseason NFL our setups went 3-3. 2-3 on the sides and 1-0 on the total. These are best used with your successful handicapping methods for preseason. If you happened to bet these you had an exciting time as at one point after losing the first one and Atlanta with the under bother winning it looked like they might go 4-1-1. Green Bay had the ball and needed one more score to Tie and San Fran imploded in the 4th. But an exciting day. Nice to finally see the NFL about to get in full swing.

Today its a bit early for MLB Plays but there are several that look promising. I have tightened up MLB quite a bit going into the final stretch of the season.

Early MLB Weightings:

913 DET – A Simon 3++
914 TOR – M Buehrle
925 BOS – W Miley 1.5
926 NYM – N Syndergaard
917 LAA – J Weaver
918 CLE – J Tomlin 1+
915 KC – D Duffy 1-
916 TB – N Karns
905 SD – J Shields
906 PHI – A Asher 2
927 NYY – N Eovaldi
928 ATL – J Teheran 2+
903 COL – J De La Rosa 0.5
904 PIT – C Morton
901 MIA – B Hand 0
902 WAS – S Strasburg 0
921 HOU – L McCullers
922 MIN – E Santana 1
919 SEA – E Olmos 3
920 CHW – J Quintana
907 CIN – J Lamb
908 MIL – W Peralta 1-
923 BAL – M Gonzalez 0
924 TEX – D Holland 0
909 STL – J Garcia 1
910 SF – C Heston
929 OAK – J Chavez 0
930 ARI – A WEBSTER 0
911 CHC – J Arrieta
912 LAD – A Wood 1

I will update with plays if they become clear.

There are two NFL Preseason games today and so far I do not see anything that is near to a setup. But its early. Let me also mention that handicapping preseason is completely different then regular season. So much different that you could even categorize them as two different sports!

Swing trade and Market comments will be posted this afternoon.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)

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Saturday

August 29, 2015 8:13 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in MLB,NFL

5:00 Update

Bet or pass
San fran +6 L

4:30 Update

Bet or Pass
Green Bay +6 L
Indy +2 W

3:30 update

Bet or pass

Atlanta +6 W
Atlanta U43 W

12:00 Update

These Bet or Pass setups suggest a very slight edge. Not one I would wager on. I would use them with other handicapping methods you have found successful. Remember this is preseason!

Bet or Pass
Pitt +3 +105 L

There are still 3 weeks left (till 9-11) before the Westgate Super Contest starts – If you need a proxy service to enter – “lasvegascontestproxy.com” I know the owner of the service and can highly recommend this Proxy service. So if you’re from out of town…or out of the country and have the urge to enter the Westgate NFL contest this season …give them a call. I am not affiliated with this service nor do I get any remuneration for recommending them.

Friday we won our MLB Play on Houston +119 3-0 and our setup on Tenn in preseason NFL lost. I had to laugh a bit when Tenn took a time out on 4th and 1 in the first half. Came back for the play and got a 5 yard penalty. Looks like another long season for tenn!

Today in MLB not much showed up that looks good to me. Not only that nothing looks like it has any potential to turn into a play. I will monitor the variables and if anything changes I will update.

Early MLB Weightings

963 DET – B Farmer 0
964 TOR – D Hutchison 0
975 BOS – J Kelly 1.5
976 NYM – J deGrom
951 STL – L Lynn
952 SF – R Vogelsong 0+
965 KC – K Medlen 0
966 TB – J Odorizzi 0
957 SD – C Rea
958 PHI – A Morgan 1-
953 MIA – T Koehler 0
954 WAS – J Zimmermann 0
955 COL – C Rusin 0
956 PIT – J Happ 0
977 NYY – L Severino
978 ATL – M Wisler 0.5
959 CIN – K Sampson 2
960 MIL – M Garza
969 SEA – H Iwakuma 1
970 CHW – J Samardzija
971 LAA – G Richards 0
972 CLE – C Kluber 0
967 HOU – M Fiers
968 MIN – M Pelfrey 1.5+
973 BAL – U Jimenez 0+
974 TEX – M Perez
979 OAK – A BROOKS
980 ARI – J Chacin 1-
961 CHC – J Lester 0
962 LAD – M Latos 0

There is also quite a few NFL preseason games today. I have just started taking a look at them and if anything looks decent I will also update those.

Football starts in earnest next weekend with college football. I will be out of town thursday through sunday. But will try to get everything ready so I can evaluate the games while I am out of town.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)

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Friday

August 28, 2015 5:03 am · 0 comments

by RickJ · 0 comments

in INVESTING,MLB,NFL

4:55 update

Bet or pass

Tenn +5.5

10:00 Update

There are still 3 weeks left (till 9-11) before the Westgate Super Contest starts – If you need a proxy service to enter – “lasvegascontestproxy.com” I know the owner of the service and can highly recommend this Proxy service. So if you’re from out of town…or out of the country and have the urge to enter the Westgate NFL contest this season …give them a call. I am not affiliated with this service nor do I get any remuneration for recommending them.

Well at least you can say about my MLB picks is they are consistent! 0-3 Thursday. Can it get any worse …probably.

Friday MLB Plays
Minn +119

Early MLB Weightings
903 COL – J Gray 1
904 PIT – F Liriano 0
901 MIA – A Conley 0
902 WAS – M Scherzer 0
905 SD – I Kennedy 0
906 PHI – A Nola 1
913 DET – M Boyd 2+
914 TOR – R Dickey
925 BOS – H Owens 1
926 NYM – M Harvey 0
917 KC – E Volquez
918 TB – E Ramirez 2
915 LAA – A Heaney 0
916 CLE – D Salazar 0
927 NYY – M Tanaka 0
928 ATL – W Perez 1
919 BAL – K Gausman 1
920 TEX – C Hamels 0
921 SEA – T Walker 0
922 CHW – J Danks 0
923 HOU – S Kazmir
924 MIN – K Gibson 4
907 CIN – R Iglesias 0
908 MIL – T Jungmann 0
929 OAK – S Gray
930 ARI – C ANDERSON 1
909 CHC – J Hammel 0
910 LAD – C Kershaw 0
911 STL – M Wacha
912 SF – M Leake 2

I do not anticipate any more plays for today in MLB. NFL preseason games tonight. I will update with any setups I see a bit later.

I am flat on my swing trades now and do not anticipate putting any on today. Our overnight trade gained 1.05%. I will post more on the market and swing trading Sunday.

Looks like we may get a break today with a gap only in the .6 % range. It just does not feel right without a gap of over 1%. But we have 30 min left before the open so who knows:)

The market for me is in no mans land. We have had a nice 2 day bounce …one of the biggest on record. But these days the market has been setting records on both sides in addition to intraday swings. 200 pts moves in an hour are normal right now!

Until the volatility stops swing trading is going to be very difficult. I did place one swing trade on at the close yesterday and will exit this morning at the open. It was on the short side of the market fading the incredibly strong two days of movement. Right now the trade has about a 1% profit.

I may take a day trade today but nothing in the swing trade category as the risk reward is not very good right now for my style of trading. Nothing worse then getting whipsawed in these markets. That can really eat up a trading account fast. So……better setups will come along soon. Ideally we get a quick fall to retest the lows of last week washing out retail traders and at that point it will be time to consider getting aggressive.

If you want to follow my swing trades just send an invite to RICKJSWINGS for a two week free trial.

For those of you whose trial is running out you can sign up for 24$ a month through Paypal. Just send to my email address: [email protected]

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)

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Thursday

August 27, 2015

3:00 Update There are still 3 weeks left (till 9-11) before the Westgate Super Contest starts – If you need a proxy service to enter – “lasvegascontestproxy.com” I know the owner of the service and can highly recommend this Proxy service. So if you’re from out of town…or out of the country and have the […]

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Wednesday

August 26, 2015

4:00 Update Today was a monster day to the upside and our SPY/SSO swing exit triggered right before the close. It gave us a .84% loss for the trade. It was right on the trigger and I took it. With these mean reversion trades the trigger gets lower and lower as the trade develops as […]

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Tuesday

August 25, 2015

5:15 Update The markets had another dramatic turnaround today. Overnight they were up almost 5% . By the time the market opened they were up around 3.5% and when they closed the dow was down 200 pts. The globex is now open and the markets are off almost 1%. Whats remarkable to me is the […]

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Monday

August 24, 2015

10:30 Update Sunday we went 1-1 on our MLB Plays. Winning with Houston +158 and losing with Detroit +122. Today 2 games look good so far to me: Monday MLB Plays Phil +188 Miami +143 Early MLB Weightings 919 CLE – C Kluber 2 920 CHC – J Lester 901 NYM – J deGrom 902 PHI – A Morgan 3 909 HOU – S Feldman 1+ 910 NYY – N Eovaldi 903 COL – J De […]

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Sunday

August 23, 2015

3:20 Update Well I picked quite a time to start posting my swing trades. Thursday and Friday was the worst 2 day drop since 2008 and the first time markets have been off 10% from the highs since 2011. The market is about as oversold as I have seen it since 2008. So it does […]

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Saturday

August 22, 2015

3:45 update Bet or pass Balt +4.5 11:45 Update Saturday MLB Plays Atlanta +196 Houston +113 Updated MLB Weightings 904 CHC – D Haren 905 MIL – T Jungmann 2 906 WAS – J Ross 917 TEX – Y Gallardo 918 DET – R Wolf 2+ 919 MIN – K Gibson 0 920 BAL – C Tillman 0 929 LAD – Z Greinke 930 HOU – S Kazmir 3 909 PHI – A Harang 910 MIA – J Nicolino 1 907 ARI – R DELGADO 908 CIN – A DeSclafani 1 921 KC – Y Ventura 922 BOS – M […]

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Friday

August 21, 2015

3:30 Update Well we just finished a tough week in the markets with friday capping it off down over 500 pts and the nasdaq down 174. It reminds me of when the U.S. got its credit rating dropped. The Market was dropping 400 to 500 pts a day every day. I was in Hawaii for […]

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