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Transition of power over now in the U.S. !!! What else does the stock market have to worry about???

The transition is over now what is there to worry about for the markets? Plenty!!!

Top on my list of things to watch for the markets:

1. Sanctuary city battle between cities and the federal government

2. The approval of cabinet appointments

3. Moving the embassy to Jerusalem

4. The replacement of ACA with something else

5. The ever increasing fissure in the U.S. society between the left and everyone else. As to this the thing to watch is the boycotting that is ever increasing by both the left and everyone else

Now I am sure I have left a few things out but the above is what comes to mind this morning.

Remarkably the geopolitical landscape has settled down substantially from the very high DefCom rating before the election.

It appears most foreign governments are trying to get a handle on the new administration and it appears that most are looking in some way or another work with them as opposed to against them as we saw before the transition. We will see how long that lasts.

Another thing to note is it looks like Yellen is backing off of her hawkish views for the time being. If that is true it would be very bullish for the markets.

So to me we are in a seasonally strong period and absent a shock to the system we are headed much higher in the markets.

I feel any pullback right now is a good buying opportunity.

I am long GLD  from 108.25 and it is now trading this morning at 115.70. Another swing I have that has become a medium term swing trade is GEO. I am long GEO at 35.62 and it is now trading at 40.25.

So two nice gains and still long on both. I have other positions but they are a shorter term so far and have recently been put on.

30 min before the open there is not much of significance to note. A small gap down is likely confirmed with TLT up about .5%.

If we get a down day today I will most likely start accumulating a mean reversion trade in SPY via SSO. We will see.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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New filter to be added soon to handicapping sports. Back testing is very encouraging!!!

2:30 Update:

It looks like the red flag in the first game was warranted:)

Game 2 coming up:

Pitt

NE

Betting is 54% on the home favorite with the line moving from -5.5-110 to -6+102. Models point slightly to NE. Variables point to Pit and public betting is neutral.

Unlike the first game, there are no red flags. The variables that point to Pitt are medium to light as to the weight to give them. The models are just so slight to NE. So we are looking at virtually nothing to guide us as to any clue on the game. I am passing and unless you have techniques that have been proven you should also.

Good Luck!

 

11:15 Update

First NFL game of the day:

Green Bay

Atlanta

Betting is 63% on the road dog with the line moving from -4-107 to -6-107.  So off the bat, we have a red flag with the betting over 50% on the dog. Typically the public likes Favorites and Over. So when you get something different then the norm you have to take a look and see why.

Models are neutral on the game, Variables very slightly point to Green Bay, and public betting points to Atlanta.

So the things that I look at are mixed and the way I see I see no edge on either side of the first game. Typically in the NFL when you get a 2pt move off the opener it’s best to fade that move as long as it is not related to a new injury. So we have that here but to offset that we have 63% on the dog. Really you could get a headache trying to figure out where the edge is in this game. I do not play on having to take aspirin later this morning so I am passing:)

Good Luck Today whichever side you take.

 

Saturday turned out to be a very busy day for me with so many games but when the smoke cleared we have 5 plays going 3-2.

In College hoops, we went 2-2 winning with  Rutgers +3 and Depaul +11.5 and losing with W. Kentucky +8.5 and Washington +2.5.

In the NBA we won with Charlotte under 222.

Today so far I have sent out 1 play.

I have talked recently about new variable I am developing for handicapping. So far in real-time testing, it is surpassing my expectations as it shows promise in every sport I am handicapping.

Typically, variables are sport specific. But in this case, it has shown promise in every sport so far.

This provides a bit more work for me as much of this is by hand rather than getting the information with preformatted spreadsheets. But it is the most promising variable I have seen since I started handicapping.

Saying that variables come and go. Some of the best fall by the wayside very quickly when they fail any type of real time testing. So we will see:)

We have 2 NFL games today and I should have write ups on both games an hour or so before game time.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD

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Totals:

48-28 63.15% 22.63 ROI

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See sportswatchmonitor.com for documented 2016 in all sports.
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Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

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