5:00 Update

Wedn MLB play
1 unit
Minn +122
Rickj

Tuesday there were no plays…but today there are two games that I will be looking at as they are close.

Also no tracking setups today.

Looks like we are hitting another slow time.

I will update around 3:30 or sooner if anything becomes clear.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
TwitteR: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

Poker Comment:

“Thanks Rick.

I think I will take a few days off.

Played for about an hour today.

Pocket Kings vs Pocket 4′s – opponent hit a 4.

Pocket Jacks against 10 – 4 off suit (some drunk guy called preflop) hit a 10 and a 4. It really is mind boggling.”

Yes Mind Boggling is a good word for it:) Its never any fun but you really need to take an analytical approach to it all. Its only variance at work. And if you play long enough you are certain to be exposed to the outer limits of the bell curve…on both sides. All you can do is focus on playing your best game….and protecting your mind in a brutal downswing!

Monday we had no plays…..our two mlb total tracking setups went 1-1.

Today again nothing even close to a play

Also so far no tracking setups today.

A Poker Comment:

“Hey Rick.

Couple Questions about poker.

I have read everything you have written and found that is has drastically improved my game.

I am currently on a downswing. Been almost a week straight of continual bad beats. One outters always popping up on the river. Guys pulling flushes or straights out with only 3/5 cards they need after the flop and getting the turn and river to miraculously hit.

Guys calling pocket Kings or Aces with low cards and flopping straights. It just seems no end to it.

The first few days I was able to get past it. What I would say to myself is “I am playing the game right. I am making the right calls, making the right bets, sucking guys into pots properly.” The odds are in my favor but continuously the 3 – 10 % chance of losing the pots are hitting. But an extended downswing like this is just killing me. I am starting to get really frustrated with it.

My question is what do you say to yourself to get through these extended downswings? What kind of mentality do you have? How do you not let it bother you? Because it is starting to effect my game whether I like it or not.

Any input would be great.

Thanks for your time.”

Let me start out by saying 1 week of “running rough” is really not that long. It can go on for months! That is why when your gambling full time you have to play within your bankroll.

So if your frustrated after a week of this…..I would first…take a week off. Get your thinking straight. Get your confidence back. And then give it a go again.

Or if your not looking to take some time off….switch games. I always found it helpful when I ran rough to switch to another completely different game for awhile. An example for me would be switching from limit omaha to limit hold em. The mindset required to play the two games are a bit different. Whereas in a full ring game of Omaha 8….your choices are really very limited if your playing the game correctly. But in limit holdem…it requires much more decision making.

Variance is a tricky thing. What you do not want to do is fall into the trap that many full time poker players fall into. They play at a limit that is higher then their bankroll allows. They get away with it for awhile as variance can work both ways…but eventually that dreaded downswing occurs….not the 1 week one…but the 3 month one….and they are broke. To be successful…irregardless of your skill level…..you have to get this concept right!

My condolences to you as I have been in the exact same spot you are in. Bad beats after bad beats with no end in sight. You sit down thinking you will be getting a fresh start for the day….your dealt aa in holdem….and the dealer misdeals! The dealer forgets to burn a card and it costs you the pot….you flop three kings and get beat by runner runner 10s. Its never ending.

One thing you can count on though….it does change….your uncertainty and mood swing will change. And you will be back confident and playing well. But there is no way to know when it will end…and also there is no magical wand to end it. Only measures you need to take is ones needed to protect your mind:)

One additional way to look at it is…..there is no difference in losing 300 big bets in a week or 4 months…..so analytically the right approach is to just play through it…see it for what it is…and concentrate on playing well. That in my opinion is the optimal approach.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

I sold 740 Gld This morning at 132.80 for a 2.12% Loss. Will be looking to get back in soon.

RickJ

Sunday we lost our 1/2 Unit play on Minn and split on our MLB Totals tracking setups…winning Setup B and losing Setup A

Today does not look like there will be any plays.

Monday MLB Totals Tracking Setup B ( I do not bet these)

Texas U 9.5 -105
Arizona U 8 -105

I will update later if anything else develops.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

Sunday Mlb Play
8:00 Update
1/2 Unit
919 – D Fister
920 – MIN – P Walters +134

Saturday we won our 1 Unit Play on Minn +145 6-3. Our two total tracking setups both lost.

Today again Minn is close although to only a 1/2 Unit Play. I will update later if it becomes clear.

Sunday MLB Totals Tracking setups A ( I do not bet these)

Cinn O 8 -115

Sunday MLB Totals Tracking setups B ( I do not bet these)

Texas U 10 even

In the NBA nothing has changed since my comments yesterday…except of course the game is tonight:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

12:30 Update
1 unit play
Minn +145

Rickj

Another comment:

“theres no nba 2nite homie its 2morrow”

Well you can tell I am back to playing poker full time:) Been at the rio for the last 10 days. If there is any change in my brilliant analysis I will update tomorrow:)

Rick

A Comment:

“Thanks for your insight as always, Rick. But you lose me in the MIA-SA analysis when you say: that both teams “will be playing fully focused tonight.”

Not only does that imply a subjective suggestion that in the NBA Finals, one team didn’t try as hard as the other in the last game — which I find completely ridiculous given these are the most important games of the year and these are professionals — but it also should have nothing to do with how one places a wager, correct? Besides, I was under the impression that “heart” and “momentum” should never be factored into a selection. It’s also inherent in the line already, if there is a way to calculate that stuff anyway.”

I agree with you for the most part. Although I think early on in the series there is a jockeying around seeing what might work. But when you get a 7 game series and are down to the last 3 games tied up. Then you get perhaps less chance of the factor coming into the equation. Its just human nature. In other words I think the chance for an upset is more prevalent early in the series. That is why after a blowout by a team …you really have to take a close look at the other team in the next game. Similar to the NFL when a team loses in a rout…..its always a good idea to take a very close look at the team that got routed in the next game.

As far as betting that observation …I only stick to quantifiable backtested techniques.

I would never place a bet on that observation. And for what its worth its only an observation that I am making. Correct or not……there is no way to quantify it.

Friday we lost our 1 unit play on MInn 4-0. But our MLB Totals B tracking setups went 3-1 and since we started tracking them are off to a 7-1 start.

Nothing so far in the way of Plays today in Baseball although Minn is close today:(

I will update later if it becomes clear

Saturday MLB Totals Tracking Setups A ( I do not bet these)

Colorado U 10

Saturday MLB Totals Tracking Setups B ( I do not bet these)

Colorado U10 -105
Pitt U 7 Even

In the NBA tonight
Miami
San Ant

On Pinnacle the line opened at -1.5 -105 San Ant and is now 1.5 -105. So a pretty significant move towards Miami with the public 55% on Miami. That moves seems to me to be much larger then the 55% would warrant. You would think that to get that kind of move the public would need to be over 65% on the fav. So perhaps some “smart money” on Miami tonight. Thus a slight hint that Miami might be the right side tonight.

On the Negative side Miami blew them out the last game. But with the series tied 2-2 I suspect both sides will be playing fully focused tonight.

So for me a slight hint on Miami but nothing near as strong as in Game 3 on San Ant and that was not even close to a play. A clear cut pass for me

I am getting back in Gld.

Just purchased 746 Gld at 134.18

RickJ

Thursday we lost our 1 unit MLB play on Minn 3-2. I thought we were going to win it when outhit 11-1 Minn went ahead the bottom of the 7th 2-1. But they gave up 2 in the top of the 8th and that was it.

We split our 1/2 Unit plays losing the mets but winning with the cubs in extra innings.

Today only 1 play:

Friday MLB Play
1 Unit
921 – R Porcello
922 – MIN – S Diamond +124

Friday MLB Total tracking Setup B ( I do not bet these)

Pitt U 7.5
Miami U 7.5
Baltimore U 9.5
Texas U 10

That is most likely it for today.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

8:30 Update

Thursday MLB Play
1 Unit
967 – C Lee
968 – MIN – K Correia +140

In tonights NBA game

Miami
San Antonio

Is is the same matchup as 2 days ago with a few differences. The line opened on Pinnacle at -2-110 and is now -1 -103. The Public is 65% on Miami. So no smart money movement at all but we do have the public on Miami 65% and they are the dog. So a slight clue for San Antonio. But we have San Ant blowing them out in the last game and ahead 2-1 for the series. So expect Miami to put in a concentrated effort tonight.

I do not see anything that leads me in either direction. The arguments favor each side equally. As opposed to 2 days ago where the leans were all in favor of San Ant.

Wednesday we lost our 1/2 Unit play on the Cubs +122. Woods had a no hitter going into the 5th and lead 1-0. But it was downhill after that with the cubs only getting 3 hits and losing 2-1.

Our MLB Total tracking setup B was an easy winner. Colorado under 11 scored only 6.

Today is going to be a busy day in MLB despite a light schedule.

Thursday MLB Plays
1/2 Unit
951 – A Wainwright
952 – NYM – M Harvey +121

953 – M Latos
954 – CHC – J Samardzija +118

Thursday MLB Totals Tracking Setups B ( I do not bet these)

Colorado U11 -110
Texas U9 +101

There is also the possibility of one more play late…and if its a play will be a 1 unit play.

Also I will have some comments a bit later on the NBA game tonight.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
TWitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

Tuesday we won our 1/2 Unit play on Minn +108. It was tied 2-2 going into the bottom of the 8th. Minn won the game 3-2.

Wedn MLB Totals tracking setups B ( I do not bet these)

Colorado U 11 Even

Wedn MLB Plays
1/2 Unit
901 – M Leake
902 – CHC – T Wood +122

There is a late game that might become a play..I will update later if the game becomes clear.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade