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MLB April and May results along with combined season to date results now posted. MLB is now free for all!!!!

May is behind us so we have two months now of MLB using the new MLB data base.

And as expected, there are bright spots and not so bright spots:)

First lets look at the Overnight Sides:

In April:

Sides: 28-22 +9.02 (Top to bottom swing has been -4.5 to +9.02)

50 plays, top to bottom swing of 13.52 units and we ended up +9.02 Units for the month. Cannot ask much more from a new data base then that:)

 

In May:

Sides: 21-26 -.14 (Top to bottom swing has been -4.93 to +3.21)

47 Plays for -.14 units with a top to bottom swing of 8.14 units. 

The top to bottom swing remained tame, the number of plays about the same, but we treaded water in May.

 

Putting the two months together:

Sides: 50-48 +9.83 (Top to bottom swing has been -4.5 to +12.18)

98 plays, +9.83 units won, and a top to bottom swing of 16.68 units

You will note first that the two months do not add up:) That is a result of my haphazard cross checking. I typically do this manually, and very early in the morning.

So the numbers are going to be off a bit, and the time going back to cross check everything is not worth it.

But the tenor of the results for the first two months is solid. The ROI is 10% which I will take on any method I have.

The other metric I check is how often do we beat the closing line. Remember these are put out the day before.

 

In April:

Sides line bet to closing line : 31-17   241 +5.02 better than closing line per game

A 64.5% rate of beating the closing line at the rate of 5.02 per game. That is a solid rate but I would like to see the difference higher.

In May:

Sides line bet to closing line : 29-13-5   158  +3.36  better than closing line per game

In May we went down to 55% with a rate of 3.36. So both the % of beating the closing line and the rate declined. Which might account for the decrease in units won. 

But most likely you cannot draw any conclusions from  that.

Bottom line: Sides is acting similar to my backtests. And that is a good thing. If this keeps up we have a viable system for next year on the overnight Sides.

That brings us to the overnight totals:(

April:  Totals 1-5 -4.40 

May: Totals 6-11 -6.00

Not a good sign so far on these. And this is in spite of the fact that we beat the closing total line 16-1-6!!!

So, bottom line, its a bit early to tell on the overnight totals. The beating the closing line is a good sign the units lost is not.

Lets see what June brings us on these.

Remember MLB is FREE!!! The use of the new database made me decide it would not be right to charge subscribers as its an unproven real time database I am using. So I made my entire email list along with my Slack channels free for those that wanted to follow along this MLB season. All subscribers were put on pause until the beginning of the NCAA FB Season.

Then it will be back to normal for subscriptions.

During the free MLB season you get not only access to all my plays which include MLB along with any other sport during that time, but also my slack channels.

These were a new addition the last few years. They give you the opportunity to provide input, discussion, ask questions and also if you have an interest follow my stock and option trading.

I have been trading for many years. My trading is as methodical as my handicapping. I include option trades, mean reversion trades , swing trades, income trades with an approach to medium term trading. On occasion I will take an intraday trade.

The one new trading technique I now use every week is my two day short put sale. I developed this during the Covid lockdowns and it has turned out to be one of my most successful trading techniques.

I have posted 438 trades, with a win rate of 94.29% and a profit factor of 2.40. Until recently the drawdowns have been tame. However, trade 392 brought us our biggest drawdown, and we have regained 80% of the drawdown since then. Our 40-0 run has helped:)

These are put out on Thursday shortly after the market open, and expire Friday after the close. The idea is to sell premiums for income with a 2 day hold.

I have a screen I have developed, along with other parameters I use , both fundamental and technical, to decide where there is value in the premiums, with limited risk.

 

It is easy to get on board right now with us as I have made everything FREE until the first game of the NCAA FB season starts. Then its back to the $49.00 a month for everything. Which compared to other subscriptions services is a steal:)

As always I am available for questions. You need just email me at [email protected] And if you wish to sign up for the free MLB season, all you need do is make that request at [email protected] I will invite you to both of my slack channels and put you on the email list.

 

Hope to see you join us.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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In MLB
Posted

MLB April Season to date results is in! Come join is for the rest of the season……It is FREE to join!!!

April is now behind us so its time to see how my new database is working out in MLB.

April numbers are:

MLB 2022
Overnights
Sides: 28-22 +9.02 (Top to bottom swing has been -4.5 to +9.02)
Totals 1-5 -4.40        (Top to bottom swing ….not enough games)
MLB Regular Plays started 4/29
Sides : 0-2   -2.00
Season to date combined: +2.62
Sides line bet to closing line : 31-17    241 +5.02  better than closing line per game
Totals line bet to closing line: 4-0-2

A lot to digest here but lets go through this and see what we can figure out:)

First after the smoke cleared we were +2.62 units for the month of April.

That included:  Overnight Sides 28-22   +9.02 Units

Overnight Totals  1-5   -4.40 Units

Regular plays( Plays made during the day of the game) 0-2   -2.0 Units

 

Some things to note of significance:

  1. Top to bottom swings on the overnight sides was -4.5 to +9.02 Units. We finished on the high side of this range.
  2. While overnight totals were 1-5 the number beat the closing number  4-0-2  
  3. Overnight Sides beat the closing number 31-17 or 64.5%. As long as we keep this up I suspect these overnight sides will be 

profitable for the season.

 

I received some emails regarding the lack of NBA plays. There has not been anything I could see worth betting on. As you know I need three things to line up to consider a game a play. 1. Model Edge   2. Variable Edge 3. Public % Edge

The new MLB models are looking fine. There is reason to be optimistic this season as you never know when you switch up things with entirely new models.

But so far with these hitting almost 65% beating the closing line, and a nice 9 unit gain on overnight sides, it appears we are on the right track

But it is only the end of April. MLB is a grueling season.  Top to bottom swings can be 30 or 40 units in a typical season. So we will see:)

That is why I have made MLB free for everyone this season.   

Sign up by sending me an email to [email protected] I will add you to the email list, and also add you to my two 

slack channels.

The first Channel is     Rickjsports and the second channel is RickJInvest

The invest channel gives you access to my daily pre market comments, along with my intra day comments. In addition, I post many of my trades as I make them. The most popular is the two day short put sales. I make these on Thursday morning for friday expiration. These have been as solid a method as I have run into.

It is something I developed in all sports was halted during the pandemic. I worked on this for months, and then came up with something I felt was a viable short term method of picking up  income. I trade every one of these myself.

Typically I trade in 10 or 20 lots. But depending on your bankroll size you can adjust up or down.

Over the last 20+ years I have been constantly improving this site and my service. For 49.00 a month the value is the best out there. But now, its free:) Until College football starts. Then all the subscriptions I have placed on pause will be reactivated, and those that want to join are free to subscribe if they with to continue.

It is all monthly so you are no locked in to a large one season fee per sport like many services.

Again, just send me an email to [email protected] and I will have you signed up right away.

Come join us for a fun and FREE MLB season.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Over an 8 year period:

1 unit plays

Sides

121-95 56.02% with a 7.64% ROI

Totals:

48-28 63.15% 22.63 ROI

NFL

8 years beginning 2007

103-65 61.3% 18.75%ROI

#4 OVERALL for 2016!!!

See sportswatchmonitor.com for documented 2016 in all sports.
#4 of all handicappers for all results for 2016!!!

THE SPORTS MONITOR LAST SEASON DOCUMENTED RESULTS

NFL

33-21 61.11% 18.33% ROI

http://www.thesportsmonitor.com/15nfl.html

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Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

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