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NFL Week 16, Circa NFL Picks, Week 15 Recap and Comments on Trading methods all posted

A 3-2 week in the Circa and My Bookie contest bringing my record in the contests to:

Circa: 40-35

My Bookie:  43-31-1

In the all spread contest where I pick every game vs the spread I went 9-7 bringing my record to 115-109.

I have had 2 plays so far in the first two going 1-1 winning with Cleveland and losing with Arizona. In the all spread I have a 2-1 week going this week.

I send out all my all spread picks to subscribers.

This week in the Circa contest my picks were:

Cleveland +7 (W)

Arizona +1   (L)

Carolina +10

Houston +10.5

Minn +3

In the Westgate NFL Contest the top 5 picks went 3-2 bringing their record to 35-39-1

Their picks this week are:

Miami

Cincy

Buff

Arizona (L)

Chargers

I was with them on Arizona which lost and I am fading them on Houston.

The 2 day short put sales just keep rolling in with winners every week. 2-0 last week and since I have been posting them 353-21 or 94.39% win rate with a profit factor of 3.94. The graph is virtually a trend line sloping sharply up with very little drawdown. Although that changed last week with a rather large loss in VIAC. I will update the numbers before Monday.

In addition, about 60 min before the market opens I give my comments along with a variety of graphs to not only give ideas on where the market might be going on that day, but also a discussion of bigger picture issues that have a direct correlation on where the market might go intermediate term.  They not only let me formulate my thoughts for the day, but provide help information for subscribers.

About a year ago I added to this service most of my trading that I make during the day. I included this as a 0 charge

addon to give extra value to the service for those that trade the markets.

My trades consist of a wide variety of methods, but most are in the following group:
1 Mean Reversion trades
2. Swing Trades medium term
3. Day trades (Not very many)
4. Income trades 
5. Short put income producing trades

By far the two most profitable have been since I started posting these are the income trades and the 2 day short put trades.

The 2 could not be any more different.  The 2 day short put trades I place on Thursday morning with a Friday expiration. They have several characteristics: 1. Carefully screened as to the underlying health of the stock I am trading the option on 2. A strike price that is 20 to 30 % of the stock price at the time I make the trade  3. No earnings for the next 7 days  4. Enough liquidity that there is no problem getting in and out of the trade.

In managing these, there are two rules of thought. The first is rolling it over if the price of the stock looks like it is going to close through the strike price or taking delivery of the stock and selling calls against it for income.  There is a trade off to these that you should be aware of. 1. You give up a lot of EV by rolling and at times your going to take a huge loss. 2. But the capital requirements are substantially less then the take delivery method.

My view is if you screened correctly the taking delivery and selling calls for income is the better approach. However, saying that the capital requirements can be rather large.  You need to be knowledgeable in this area to understand what I am saying. I am here to a
answer any questions regarding this. But my bottom line is if you have the capital taking delivery has the best return.

The Income trades revolve around Closed end funds trading at a discount to Net Asset Value.  The things they have in common is that most produce a rate of return in the 8% per year area, and most have a substantial discount to NAV when placed.  In addition as in the short put sales, I have a screen I use that gives me the best of the bunch to trade.

It has been as solid a performer as you can get with most of the trades producing not only 8% a year but also a nice capital gain when exiting the trade.

Since I started posting my 2 day short put trades I have had 367 trades, with a 346 -21 win rate or almost 95%. The profit factor on these is 3.86%. This is a very solid system, and as we get more trades under our belt the more confirmation there is as to the validity of the method.  Drawdowns have been minimal and when they happen it takes a very short time to make it back.

The income trades have produced 50 trades with 45 winners and 5 losers. That is a 90% win rate and a profit factor of 16.11 . Not near as many trades as the 2 day short put trades but very promising numbers.

To get an example of what good screening will do for you I had 4 short put sales last week. On Friday we had an 800 pt down move in the Dow, and yet none of my short put trades came close to the strike price.  That is when you know you are using excellent screening methods!!!

In addition about an hour before the open I post my pre market comments to subscribers on slack.

All my trading is put out only via Slack.

The cost of subscribing is only $49.00 a month. Considering that most handicapping and stock services charge many times more then that for just one sport, I would say this is one of the best values out there right now.

 

You have access to every one of the sports plays which now include college hoops that just started.

To subscribe all one needs to do is 1.go to rickjshandicappingpicks.com 2. select the paypal drop down menu on the first page 3. Select the monthly plan of 49.00 a month and follow the paypal prompts. I will have you added to the email list, slack channels and if you wish to my private twitter feed.

All of the subscription options have a 3 day free trial and if you decide later not to subscribe within the 3 days, you will not be charged. Other wise the service is a month to month service.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

 

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NFL Week 15, Circa NFL Picks , Week 14 recap, comments on trading methods all posted

A washout week for me in the contests:(  1-4 in Circa and My bookie which brings my record in the contests to:

Circa: 37-33 or 52.8 %.

My Bookie: 40-29-1 or 57.97%

All spread contest:

5-9 bringing my season to date record picking every game against the spread to 106-102 or 50.97%

These do not include my win on Indy last night as 1 of the 5 in the contests.

This week in the Circa contest my picks are:

Indy -2   (W)
Giants +10.5
Houston +5.5
Detroit +12.5
Atlanta +9.5

The weeks are getting tough now, and the public favorites are coming in like clockwork. Not even a hint of a problem:)  Is it that easy?  History tells us otherwise, and I expect the bottom to fall out on these sometime very soon!

In the Westgate NFL Super contest, the top 5 picks went 2-3 last week bring their record to 32-37-1 or

46.37%. They have been a good solid fade this season as they have been virtually every season.

The top 5 this week are:

GB

Pitt

Buff

Cincy

NE

I faded NE and it was a winner last night, other then that I am on neither side of the rest.

NFL plays this season are on the plus side but nothing to write home about:

NFL 2021
Sides: 17-16
Totals:   3-1
Combined 20-17

I suspect there will be a few plays today but I am waiting until about 30 min before game time to send them out. Nothing seems to be crystal clear this week.

The 2 day short put sales just keep rolling in with winners every week. 2-0 last week and since I have been posting them 353-21 or 94.39% win rate with a profit factor of 3.94. The graph is virtually a trend line sloping sharply up with very little drawdown.

In addition, about 60 min before the market opens I give my comments along with a variety of graphs to not only give ideas on where the market might be going on that day, but also a discussion of bigger picture issues that have a direct correlation on where the market might go intermediate term.  They not only let me formulate my thoughts for the day, but provide help information for subscribers.

About a year ago I added to this service most of my trading that I make during the day. I included this as a 0 charge

addon to give extra value to the service for those that trade the markets.

My trades consist of a wide variety of methods, but most are in the following group:
1 Mean Reversion trades
2. Swing Trades medium term
3. Day trades (Not very many)
4. Income trades 
5. Short put income producing trades

By far the two most profitable have been since I started posting these are the income trades and the 2 day short put trades.

The 2 could not be any more different.  The 2 day short put trades I place on Thursday morning with a Friday expiration. They have several characteristics: 1. Carefully screened as to the underlying health of the stock I am trading the option on 2. A strike price that is 20 to 30 % of the stock price at the time I make the trade  3. No earnings for the next 7 days  4. Enough liquidity that there is no problem getting in and out of the trade.

In managing these, there are two rules of thought. The first is rolling it over if the price of the stock looks like it is going to close through the strike price or taking delivery of the stock and selling calls against it for income.  There is a trade off to these that you should be aware of. 1. You give up a lot of EV by rolling and at times your going to take a huge loss. 2. But the capital requirements are substantially less then the take delivery method.

My view is if you screened correctly the taking delivery and selling calls for income is the better approach. However, saying that the capital requirements can be rather large.  You need to be knowledgeable in this area to understand what I am saying. I am here to a
answer any questions regarding this. But my bottom line is if you have the capital taking delivery has the best return.

The Income trades revolve around Closed end funds trading at a discount to Net Asset Value.  The things they have in common is that most produce a rate of return in the 8% per year area, and most have a substantial discount to NAV when placed.  In addition as in the short put sales, I have a screen I use that gives me the best of the bunch to trade.

It has been as solid a performer as you can get with most of the trades producing not only 8% a year but also a nice capital gain when exiting the trade.

Since I started posting my 2 day short put trades I have had 367 trades, with a 346 -21 win rate or almost 95%. The profit factor on these is 3.86%. This is a very solid system, and as we get more trades under our belt the more confirmation there is as to the validity of the method.  Drawdowns have been minimal and when they happen it takes a very short time to make it back.

The income trades have produced 50 trades with 45 winners and 5 losers. That is a 90% win rate and a profit factor of 16.11 . Not near as many trades as the 2 day short put trades but very promising numbers.

To get an example of what good screening will do for you I had 4 short put sales last week. On Friday we had an 800 pt down move in the Dow, and yet none of my short put trades came close to the strike price.  That is when you know you are using excellent screening methods!!!

In addition about an hour before the open I post my pre market comments to subscribers on slack.

All my trading is put out only via Slack.

The cost of subscribing is only $49.00 a month. Considering that most handicapping and stock services charge many times more then that for just one sport, I would say this is one of the best values out there right now.

 

You have access to every one of the sports plays which now include college hoops that just started. I am off to a great start in college”
hoops with Sides 6-2 and Totals 7-3. Combined record  12-5

To subscribe all one needs to do is 1.go to rickjshandicappingpicks.com 2. select the paypal drop down menu on the first page 3. Select the monthly plan of 49.00 a month and follow the paypal prompts. I will have you added to the email list, slack channels and if you wish to my private twitter feed.

All of the subscription options have a 3 day free trial and if you decide later not to subscribe within the 3 days, you will not be charged. Other wise the service is a month to month service.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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Testimonials

RickJs 6

NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Over an 8 year period:

1 unit plays

Sides

121-95 56.02% with a 7.64% ROI

Totals:

48-28 63.15% 22.63 ROI

NFL

8 years beginning 2007

103-65 61.3% 18.75%ROI

#4 OVERALL for 2016!!!

See sportswatchmonitor.com for documented 2016 in all sports.
#4 of all handicappers for all results for 2016!!!

THE SPORTS MONITOR LAST SEASON DOCUMENTED RESULTS

NFL

33-21 61.11% 18.33% ROI

http://www.thesportsmonitor.com/15nfl.html

Categories

Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

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