Several key primaries coming up soon.
The one race that seems strange to me is Murkowski in Alaska. Most votes goes to TShibaka 79/25 But the odds of Murkowski getting reelected is 71/29. I am not sure how to reconcile that one.
Murkowski has said several times she thinks she might not win the primary. That would have been my thought considering that virtually every endorsement of Trumps has won.
Next in Arizona it appears Cheney is finished. She is a 95/5 dog in the race. That seems about right to me.
For governor Lake is a 90/10 favorite to get the nomination. That also seem spot on.
Next speaker of the house , McCarthy is a 76/% favorite. I like the other side of that one. The Republicans will most likely take the house, but depending on how the primary’s go, McCarthy may not get the vote to Speaker. Getting 3 to 1 is not a bad number on that one.
There are races now for the midterms even though in some the candidate is not set. Walker in Ga is a 4/6 dog to get that Senate seat. I have bet that race at much worse odds. I layed 6/4 on Walker. So obviously I would be taking 4/6 here.
Control of the Senate is 51/49 Republicans. That is probably the correct line. The GOP has pissed off enough of the base that this will be a close one. The question is what % of the base will not turn out for them. They have gone out of their way to not take the Senate back. If I was forced to wager on this I would take the Dems.
In the House the line is 87/15 in favor of the Republicans. I would not lay that number. But I doubt the Dems will be able to keep the House.
Biden is a 31% chance of getting the Dem nomination. I would take the other side of that one and lay the odds. I do not see any chance of him getting the nomination in 2024. You can lay 3 to 1 and rest easy.
Arizona Senate race has the Dems a 57/43 Favorite. I would take the odds on this one. Its a tossup at best.
Trump and DeSantis are tied at 29% to win the Presidency in 2024. My opinion is if DeSantis on on the top of the ticket the line should be around 10 to 1 that he wins. If Trump is on top of the ticket its probably 10 to 1 against. If you think 2020 was bad, they will double down to make sure Trump does not win. DeSantis on the other hand would get the support that Trump does not have from the establishment, and the Hispanic vote would turn out in record numbers.
Let me add, I am not convinced Trump is going to run. I would put the line out at a tossup right now.
If anyone has any particular race they are interested drop me an email.
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