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NFL Week 1 comments , New “Dirty 30” fade. My thoughts for a Sunday Morning

A new NFL season is here.  Hopefully, it will not be marred by politics and proceed in the usual course. I am going to go on the assumption that there will be a full season.

Last year in the ALL Spread contest where you pick every game against the spread I hit 55.5% winners:)  In The Westgate where you pick the top 5, it was less than that.

This season is the first season I will not be in the Westgate. I decided against it not only because of the Vig they charge but the political uncertainty throwing another variable into the mix.  I plan on getting back in gear next season.

I did enter the ALL spread contest this season and I will send these picks out to all subscribers Sunday Morning, with my usual comments on each game. 

I started the all spread contest with a win Thursday night on KC. In addition, had a good day in College football with Georgia Tech +13 and UTEP +6 both winning the games outright. I am 2-1 now in college football.

My top 5 picks this week using the Westgate lines:

1. Carolina +3

2Atlanta +2.5

3. Denver +2.5

4. Miami +6.5

5. Cinci +3

Looking over the Westgate top 5:

Buffalo

Rams

Atlanta

Tenn

Arizona

Historically its been a winning proposition to fade these. Although last season you would have had to weather some punishment:)

I am with them on Atlanta and Fading Tenn with Denver.

The bottom 5 this week is :

Houston

KC

Giants

Denver

San Fran

I am on Denver.

Also, the San Fran game is questionable today because of the fires. Not sure what the status of the game is this morning.

For those following my political plays I added one wager to my “dirty 30” wager last week:

NM-02 Republican 42/58  The line is now 45/55.

I now have 12 of the 30 “Dirty 30” faded with an overall 2/3 odds. I expect to win at least 50% of my wagers on these:)  We will see.

There are 18 more to go and as the lines are posted I plan on betting them.

It’s not too late to join us for a fun football season. Just go to the PayPal drop-down menu and subscribe!!!

I have sent out 1 NFL play so far today to Subscribers.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

Rick’Js Handicapping Picks

http://rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Slack: Rickjsports

 

 

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NFL is only 10 days away, also updated political odds. My thoughts for a Sunday morning

Baseball is past the 1/2 way mark and for the season I sit at -2.75 Units. The top-bottom swing has been very narrow from – 5 units to +2.5 Units. The Season has been marked with pitching changes and cancellations.

I just added some Regular 1/2 unit total plays to the mix today for the rest of the season. They have backtested very well so we will see if that picks things up a bit.

The NFL is only 10 days away!!!

I will not be participating in the Westgate contest this year primarily because of the uncertainty with professional sports this year. Who knows what chaos the November elections will bring. The NBA is in complete disarray right now.

But I have entered the same contest I entered last year where you pick every game against the spread. Last season I went 142-114-0 against the spread picking every game. That is 55.46%. As it turns out it was better then I did in the Westgate contest last season.

I send out all my picks in this contest to subscribers on Saturday after 12 P.M.

This year also I will send out to subscribers my top 5 picks or what I would have chosen if I had entered the Westgate contest. They will be sent out at the same time as the All Spread Contest.

We will also have our 1 unit plays again this season.  Since I have started handicapping the NFL has been the most steady for winning seasons of all the other sports.

To subscribe just go to the PayPal menu and pick the monthly subscription. All subscriptions come with a 3-day free trial. 

Also, there will be no NFL special this season. There are two reasons: The uncertainty of the season and I have a lot more yearly subscribers now paying the 499 for the entire year. The specials eat into their savings substantially. So from here on out the only saving is the 499 yearly subscription.

Now, let’s take a look at the Political odds:

One thing to note is the race has narrowed quite a bit since I last posted.

I have long been saying the best wager of 2020 is going to be fading the “dirty 30”. (Dems in House seats where Trump won the general in 2016). Some of those matchups are now out and here are my wagers.

GA-06     29/71  price now 26/73   -3

ME 02     51/49  price now 49/51  -2

IA-01        32/68  price now 33/67 +1

SC -01     54/46  price now 46/57   -10

NY-11       36/64 price now 34/66   -2

NJ -03     34/66  price now 33/69 -1

IA-02       29/61 price now 36/64    +7

MN-07     68/32 price now  70/30  +2

NY-22       47/53 price now   50/50 +3

OK-05       68/32  price now   48/52   -20

VA-07      43/57   price now    34/66    -9

 

So of the 30 only 11 matchups have been posted. I will be fading each one as they are posted. The line has moved against me in almost everyone 🙂 So if your planning on taking these you will be getting a better price. I am not going to cherry-pick but just fade all 30.  As expected in most cases you are getting around 2 to 1. I expect that will continue at least until we get a bit closer to the election when these races should tighten up a lot. My expectation is to win at least 50% of these.

Now let’s look at the rest of the political odds:

Dem Nominee:

Biden

Biden is the Nominee

Dem VP Nomination:

Harris

Harris is the VP Nominee

Presidential winner:

Trump 48/55 +7Pts I took Trump at 45/55. At some books, you have to lay -105 to wager on Trump!
I think Trump getting 3 to 2 is an excellent wager. Starting to get as good as the dirty 30 wagers in terms of equity. The 3 to 2 is no longer available. It is pretty much even money right now. There has been a massive move toward Trump in the last 2 weeks.

There is one thing you can count on, the polls will be slanted toward Biden by at least 10 pts.  As I noted Trump at even money seems reasonable and now you can get almost 6/4. My take is the outcome will hinge on whether they get voter fraud under control. 2020 will be massive attempts at voter fraud. The establishment will be taking out all stops to get Trump out of office.

The two primary reasons: 1. Very high up people are going to be spending time in prison if he wins  2. He is costing the establishment a lot of money with his America first policy. All the special interest money is drying up as they cannot produce. Trump is looking out for Americans, not special interests. So the establishment on both sides wants him gone.

I would like to find a wager as to how many senate Republicans vote for Biden:)  Since there is no way of finding out there will not be a line. But my guess is at least 10 will be voting for Biden.

Control of the Presidency: Dems 55/48 Same as Trump Biden odds

Again I believe the value is on the Republicans, It looks like a repeat of 2016 to me with the polling.

Control of the House:

82/20 Democrats: -4 Pts

I took 4 to 1 and now staring at 5 to 1. Lots of EV in getting 5 to 1 here. I may end up wagering more at this price.    Another good wager is to bet against each of the “dirty 30”

Control of the Senate:

50/50  + 8 Pts toward the Republicans keeping the Senate.

I think the Republicans are a good wager here, getting almost 6/4. They have not done themselves any favors, to say the least. But I cannot fathom the electorate going with the Dems with their policy agenda. The better wager to me is getting 6 to 1 on the Republicans regaining the House.

6 to 4 is gone. 50-50 is the best you can get right now.

I think most likely Collins is going to lose Maine, but Alabama is a certain pickup. So we are back to +3 Republicans. I cannot imagine the Dems picking up 3 seats.  The problem of course is that if they do and it is 50/50 you have Romney who will torpedo Trump every chance he gets. Then there is Murkowski.  If Collins wins which I do not think she is even trying, then it is +4 Republicans which will give them some breathing room.

Odds of a recession during Trump’s first term: This wager is over and I lost it

A new line popped up that is interesting:

Will Kanye run in 2020    95/5 It looks like he is running although will not be on every state ballot. The question is how will this influence the election if at all. The consensus is he will hurt Biden.

I do not think you can wager on this market the way the rules are. There is a lot of play in the interpretation of what constitutes running:)  If the rules were hard and fast I would easily bet against this. Sure he has announced he is running, but with Kayne, that can change on a dime. There needs to be a date certain in the wager. That would make it easier to wager on.

That pretty much sums it up for this post. I will try to post some market comments and go through my short put sales tomorrow before the open. This has been a very profitable endeavor since I started it, as you will see in my next post.

Another wager I made that I felt had a lot of value is Where the Dems will sweep all 3 branches:

I received 43/57 that they would not, and the line is now 44/56   -7 Pts. This has turned completely around and I know have just a tad bit of equity in my wager.

Getting odds on this to me was a no brainer:)

 

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds

Skype:riccja

Slack: RickJ

 

 

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Thanks Rick! Just want to also say that I really enjoy following along with your plays and swing trades. Also really enjoy the blog, I read it every day.

Rickj7

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Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

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