Let me begin by saying MLB is not for everyone. It is a grind, similar to playing low limit hold em in the casinos.  The EV if you have your methods correct is around + 1 to +3 % over the course of a season. In addition, even if you make no mistakes, variance plays a factor. The reason is the number of plays compared to the other sports is very high.

For instance so far this season we have 50 plays that I have sent out to subscribers.  When you are wagering every day, with that number of plays the swings are going to be there. And if you cannot deal with it, either financially or mentally, its best to rest up over the summer for the College and pro football season.  Many of my subscribers do that, and I encourage them to take some time off. Enjoy your summer:)

But if you are like me, I enjoy handicapping so much that this is a way to keep my mind sharp, help others become better handicappers, and produce positive EV wagers.

With that in mind, this season I am only putting out plays in two areas in MLB. The first is overnight sides. These are plays I send out the day before for the next day. And day of the game totals. That is it.

I keep records on everything I do dating back many years. I have found that these two areas for me are the only reliable positive EV situations I would bet my own money on. I do not bet just to be betting. If I do not feel based upon objective factors that I have an edge, I do not wager.

This April finds us with 50 wagers with two days left in the month. Today I have one play.

The numbers are encouraging. On overnight Sides we sit at 25-25 for +2.85 units.  That is a 5.7% ROI which is a very respectable number.

Our day of the game totals are 2-1 for +.90 units.

So we find ourselves +3.75 units. Last season as I recall we picked up about 17 units in these two categories.

One thing I always follow is the top to bottom swing. I did that when I was playing poker full time. It was fascinating to see the difference depending on what game you were playing.

But on MLB top to bottom has been  +3.99 to -4.43 units. That is a swing in April of 8.42 units. On 50 plays that not a big swing. And as you can see it is weighted around the 0 line equally.

As the season progresses I would expect this to widen. It would not be unusual to have 20 to 30 unit top to bottom swings.

We had an amazing NFL and College hoop season. My NFL picks this season hit almost 80%. On the bell curve that is a outlier of course, but it is nice to have some positive variance:)

I am very optimistic this season in MLB.  My goal is to stick with the program and produce a +15 to 20 unit season for subscribers.  Will I meet it this season? Time will tell!

As you can see I enjoy what I do. It is a hobby and one I have been doing for a very long time now.

The mark of a good handicapping service is how many subscribers you have that have been with you from the very beginning (some 20+ years ago). I happen to have many subscribers in that category. primarily because of my transparency and ability to educate and produce positive EV results , year in and year out.

I have had some individuals suggest why don’t I just give everything out for free. I put in a lot of time in what I do, and have a cash outlay for the data and methods I develop. I do not look to make a lot of money, but merely to defray expenses. And at $49.00 a month, where you have access to every sport I handicap during that subscription period, It is substantially less then other services that do not come close to the results I have had over the years.

Many services lock you in for the season, charge per sport, and have fees in the 4 digit category. While mine you can quit anytime.

In addition, I am a stock investor. I share my thoughts on the market to subscribers, while also sharing many of my trades on Slack. This is a value added, for those that have an interest in the markets.

I plan on posting a bit more now that some of the distractions that have come up over the last year have subsided.

As always I can be contacted via email riccja3@gmail.com. 

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

How to begin:)   I have had an online presence sharing my knowledge and plays for 20+ years now. And while many that do this are in hiding trying to avoid their previous subscribers, I am very proud to say I have had subscribers since day 1 over 20 years ago.

That is a testament to their perseverance, their love of sports, and their recognition that sports wagering requires many skills. The have learned that you cannot avoid variance but you have to welcome and respect it. If you do not, you will fall into the 99% who go dusted many times, over and over.

My path has been like most in this endeavor. You start out as a public bettor. You pour over statistics only to find time and again, no matter what you do, the end result is the same. Losses year after year.

For me, a light went off years ago, that there is a better way to handicap sports. With that in mind, let me give you some of my guidelines that I use:

1. There is an inverse relationship between how good a wager looks and how good it actually is. (looking at the wager from a public bettors perspective)
2. If you do not respect and understand variance , you will lose. It is that simple
3. Do not wager on anything unless you believe you have a positive EV.  Wagering for fun is only fun for the bookies and the person who your betting with. It is never fun to consistently lose money.
4. Sports handicapping can be a positive EV, but only if you have the knowledge, discipline and temperament for it.
5. Set aside a bankroll that is of a size that if you lost it all it would cause you no concern. Except perhaps from an intellectual view. The wager 1 to 2 % of that on each wager. Everyone will have a different risk tolerance, so make your decision wisely.
6. If you have not gotten your “tilt” tendencies under control, just take a pass on wagering on anything.  You cannot win if you tilt. Everyone that is drawn to this past time has this tendency built into their psyche. It is only those that recognize it and successfully control it that have a chance to succeed.

There are of course others, but off the top of my head, these came to mind.

Now lets move on to some recent results:

The 2022/23 NFL season has been perhaps the best season I have had ever in handicapping the NFL. It for some reason has been my easist sport to handicap. Most likely because my methods that incorporate contrarian public wagering fits the NFL more than many other sports.

This season in the NFL:

The plays I sent out to subscriber in the NFL this season were 25-7-1. That is a 78.125% win rate with an ROI of 54.06%

If I saw a sports handicapping service advertising these results my immediate reaction would be to stay away from them:)  As no one hits over 78% in the NFL for the season. But these plays we all posted and sent to subscribers. So I can attest they are accurate numbers.

I was also in a contest where you pick 5 games against the spread each week. Final result was 55-32-3  63.21%  This was in the MyBookie contest where thousand of contestants entered. I cashed in that contest.

The other contest I was in was one where you pick every game against the spread:

I ended up 152-119   56.08% and just missed cashing in that contest. 1/2 pt out of cashing.

And then post season in the NFL I went 1-0 on sides and 0-1 on totals.

I will tell you I surprised my self this season:)

Onto College hoops:

Season to date on Sides we are at 65/57-2, Totals 6-0

Combined season to date  71-57-2   55.46%   6.48% ROI

While not near the record in the NFL, A solid season in College hoops.

With that in mind, March Madness is upon us. Not would be a reasonable time to jump on board at least through the end of the tournament.  All subscriptions can be made at Rickjshandicappingpicks.com under the PayPal dropdown menu. Or if you like you can send a one time payment of $37.75 which is a prorata rate for the final 3 weeks of College hoops. That will take you up to the Championship game on April 3rd.

You can use this special link:  https://py.pl/Da8yL

Finally we have MLB starting 3/30th.

Here are the results from last season:

Overnight sides:  132-141   +16.44  with an ROI of 7.23%  The top to bottom swing on sides was from -4.5 to +24.0 units

Overnight Totals  30-42-1   -14.20    top to bottom swing  -15 to even. We were never in the plus side on these

Regular plays:

Sides 1-4  -2.42

Totals 0-2  -2.30

This season is going to be restricted to primarily overnight sides. These are plays that are put out the evening before the next days games. It is the one wager that has been consistently producing profits year after year since I started handicapping them.

On thing I keep a close track of is the line I wagered compared to the line at game time.  We beat the closing line 181-64-14 . That is 73.8% better than the closing line on every overnight side I wagered on.  We beat the line by an average of 5.17. This is the smallest number since I have been putting these out. Typically it is between 10 and 15. But even with only beating the closing line by 5.17 we ended up with a profit of 16.44 units when the smoke cleared.

This is the niche I am going with for the upcoming MLB season. So it will require you to have outs that put out the overnight line. Ideally it will be a 10c line. But with overnights they are not that easy find. 20c is fine as long as you are close to the number I put out. These are numbers that I have wagered on shortly before sending out the plays. So they are out there.

Some important goals in finding outs is that you want to have books that put them out early. The earlier the better. Next you want to strive to have at least two outs, 3 or 4 is better.

In money line sports, the price you obtain may well determine your end result. It is not like spread betting where you have some leeway if the lines are not around key numbers. But in money line sports it is all about value.

A final reminder that Predictit.org is no longer a viable option for wagering.  They have been in litigation, and last I heard the outcome is undecided. This revolves around DFTC attempting to shut the site down. They still put up lines, but I would suggest to everyone that the risks of sending them money in order to wager are much too high at the moment.

I hope you have enjoyed this long due update.  As always if anyone has any questions or comments I can be reached via email riccja3@gmail.com. That is usually the best way to reach me. Unless you are a subscriber. Then I am on slack every day.

Good luck in all your handicapping endeavors.  Lets have a great March Madness 3 weeks.  And remember you can sign up for the march madness via a pro rata charge of 37.75 at this link:  https://py.pl/Da8yL

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com