A further discussion of how to obtain the discipline required to be a successful sports bettor

On Monday we had 4 plays and went 3-1 for +2.18 Units sports betting MLB. That brings us to +17.185 Units season to date in MLB.

We are on a nice rebound from our drawdown so let’s see if we can continue this rebound. We are now about 12 Units from the high equity amount.

I want to touch upon what I have talked about the last 3 days. Today I want to discuss how difficult it is to overcome your human tendencies that typically will sabotage your success as a sports bettor.

The difficulty is going to depend on a number of different factors. The primary factors are going to be your introspective ability along with how ingrained these habits are.

As an example, I played poker with a young player, who almost without exception could not avoid tilting by the end of the first 2 rounds of the start of the game.

You could make a wager on it with almost 100% certainty.

Then there is another example that I did make a wager on. Before a lady sat down in the Omaha 8 game I made a wager with the person sitting next to me that she would play every hand for the first two rounds.

The person thought I was crazy and quickly made the wager. But of course I won the wager:) And it was such a sure thing I told him to forget about paying me.

Now, these are extreme examples of ingrained behavior. Most of us do not even come close to those examples.

So, it will all depend on where you fall into the degree of ingrained behavior your attempting to overcome.

Myself, in my younger years I was pretty extreme! I would fly out to Vegas on the spur of the moment. Get stuck about 5,000 and bet it all on a baseball game to get even. So, I was pretty out of control gambler in my younger years.

But, I had the advantage of being an analytical type with pretty strong introspective abilities.

So I channeled my desire to gamble into a money-making endeavor. As I have told people in the past, I do not have to have the best of it to wager. But I do have to think I have the best of it.

And that is what every positive EV gambler needs to strive for. To gamble for the sake of gambling is a fool’s errand. Leave it for the fools.

Good Luck Today

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
Skype: riccja


How do you go about finding the discipline to be a successful sports bettor? Some clues!

On Sunday we had 2 plays and went 2-0 for sports betting MLB. We had Texas +110 which won 5-3. They were behind 3-1 heading into the top of the 9th and scored 4 to win and then we had the Mets +138 winning 5-3. They were also behind 3-1 heading into the bottom of the 9th where the Mets scored 4 to win the game.

So two nice come from behind wins:) Although it seems like they always go against you on occasion you get helped by coming from behind games.

So we had a +2.48 Unit day which brings us to +15.005 Units season to date in MLB.

I talked about discipline the last two days and got an interesting email last night which in essence asked how do you go about getting this discipline.

A tough question to say the least. It took me a long time from when I started gambling at an early age to where I am at now.

I have said in the past that there is nothing many gamblers can do that I have not experienced first hand myself:)

We all start out getting into gambling for the thrill of the game. From sports betting, poker, horse racing or casino games like craps and blackjack, they all provide an outlet for this compulsion.

At some point in my journey, I realized that the idea of gambling for the sake of just gambling was a fool’s errand. And I made a decision that I would only gamble when I thought I had an edge.

Otherwise, what is the point? Once I came to that decision the rest was fairly easy. There is a multitude of books out there on poker and blackjack that can educate you to the point where you will have an edge at both games.

For sports betting it’s not that easy. I do not know of any good books that codifies what you need to learn. But I can tell you, being both a blackjack and poker player, sports betting is much more difficult.

There are so many different variables, considerations and they change based upon the sport and the place in the season the sport is in.

But one thing you can get down with no problem is a betting discipline. I have given you a shortcut by saying the 2% rule is the best I have found. You can take my word for it or not but in the end, you will come to the same conclusion.

So back to the original question. With that backdrop, it’s simply a question of will. How committed are you to being a winning bettor. It requires work. It requires constant monitoring of your betting. And above all its not easy to keep your human tendencies in line.

But if you are successful you may find yourself in the 2 or 3 % of the sports bettors that actually make money wagering on sports.

It’s a nice goal to attempt to get to:)

That is why I am here to help you through this journey. Both by way of these posts and by way of my plays. Explaining them and answering any questions anyone has.

I know of no other service that gives this type of comprehensive coverage as this one. Even the ones that are 10x the price do not come close to the value we produce here.

Good Luck Today

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
Skype: riccja

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Rickjs 4



Over an 8 year period:

1 unit plays


121-95 56.02% with a 7.64% ROI


48-28 63.15% 22.63 ROI


8 years beginning 2007

103-65 61.3% 18.75%ROI

#4 OVERALL for 2016!!!

See sportswatchmonitor.com for documented 2016 in all sports.
#4 of all handicappers for all results for 2016!!!



33-21 61.11% 18.33% ROI



Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

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