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In MLB
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A 5-0 day in MLB on Saturday for +5.955 Units! Details here:)

We continued our rebound on Saturday with a 5-0 day for +5.955 Units sports betting MLB. That brings us to +21.41 Units season to date in MLB.

We are rapidly approaching the all-star break. I will do a more thorough write-up at that time.

I received quite a bit of email regarding my 2% rule and my comments on discipline.

The more you think about it the more you will be open to maintaining discipline in your betting. Remember, most of the betting population have no concept of the idea of discipline in their wagering.

So just being cognizant of it will put you a step ahead of other bettors.

One other thing to remember is that no matter how disciplined you become there will always be human nature attempting to intervene:)

As an example I doubt there are many that are more disciplined then I have become as a gambler.

It was a long and tortuous journey but I finally got here! But even knowing what I know, I have slipped on occasion.

Poker not so much. It’s hard to slip when your playing ten handed Omaha 8. I could program a computer to beat the low limit Omaha 8 games in Vegas. They are extremely soft.

Once you know the odds its very hard to get out of line playing a ring game of Omaha 8. It’s pretty much automatic with only a few situations that let you be creative.

In sports betting it’s not that clear. But what is clear is your betting routine.

At times I have heard that voice in the back saying lets gamble today:) Usually, I ignore it or laugh it away. But for some reason about 5 years ago I threw caution to the winds.

I wagered 500.00 per game on the NFL playoffs. So had 4 games wagered at 500.00 a piece even though there was nothing that I could perceive as an edge. But, how bad could it be to just gamble this weekend?

Well, after going 0-3 I headed into the last game down 1500. I proceeded to up my wager to 2500 on the game. After all, could I really go 0-4:)

Even my bookie laughed at how I was steaming.

Well, heading into the last few seconds I had the game won. What was supposed to be the last play of the game turned into a nightmare?

It was a hail mary pass by the other side. So either a bat down or an interception and fall on the ball would have ended the game. But, as it so often turns out when you gamble the genius that intercepted try to run the ball back, fumbled, which resulted in the other team scoring with no time left!

That is what happens when you listen to that voice. Every once in awhile even I need a knock on the head:)

I give these examples not only for amusement but also they are a good learning experience also.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Skype: riccja

0
In MLB
Posted

A further discussion of how to obtain the discipline required to be a successful sports bettor

On Monday we had 4 plays and went 3-1 for +2.18 Units sports betting MLB. That brings us to +17.185 Units season to date in MLB.

We are on a nice rebound from our drawdown so let’s see if we can continue this rebound. We are now about 12 Units from the high equity amount.

I want to touch upon what I have talked about the last 3 days. Today I want to discuss how difficult it is to overcome your human tendencies that typically will sabotage your success as a sports bettor.

The difficulty is going to depend on a number of different factors. The primary factors are going to be your introspective ability along with how ingrained these habits are.

As an example, I played poker with a young player, who almost without exception could not avoid tilting by the end of the first 2 rounds of the start of the game.

You could make a wager on it with almost 100% certainty.

Then there is another example that I did make a wager on. Before a lady sat down in the Omaha 8 game I made a wager with the person sitting next to me that she would play every hand for the first two rounds.

The person thought I was crazy and quickly made the wager. But of course I won the wager:) And it was such a sure thing I told him to forget about paying me.

Now, these are extreme examples of ingrained behavior. Most of us do not even come close to those examples.

So, it will all depend on where you fall into the degree of ingrained behavior your attempting to overcome.

Myself, in my younger years I was pretty extreme! I would fly out to Vegas on the spur of the moment. Get stuck about 5,000 and bet it all on a baseball game to get even. So, I was pretty out of control gambler in my younger years.

But, I had the advantage of being an analytical type with pretty strong introspective abilities.

So I channeled my desire to gamble into a money-making endeavor. As I have told people in the past, I do not have to have the best of it to wager. But I do have to think I have the best of it.

And that is what every positive EV gambler needs to strive for. To gamble for the sake of gambling is a fool’s errand. Leave it for the fools.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Skype: riccja

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RickJ's 1

NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Over an 8 year period:

1 unit plays

Sides

121-95 56.02% with a 7.64% ROI

Totals:

48-28 63.15% 22.63 ROI

NFL

8 years beginning 2007

103-65 61.3% 18.75%ROI

#4 OVERALL for 2016!!!

See sportswatchmonitor.com for documented 2016 in all sports.
#4 of all handicappers for all results for 2016!!!

THE SPORTS MONITOR LAST SEASON DOCUMENTED RESULTS

NFL

33-21 61.11% 18.33% ROI

http://www.thesportsmonitor.com/15nfl.html

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Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

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