Westgate NFL Supercontest picks and Top 5 posted for Week 3


On Saturday we had 2 plays in College Football and won both. Texas +3 and Ohio +7 were the winners.
In the NFL we have 2 plays pending with a 3rd play coming up soon.
In the Westgate NFL Supercontest, I sit at 5-4-1 going 3-2 last week. Let’s see if I can put together a nice rush to get into contention. It has happened before:)
My Westgate picks this week in the order I liked them at the time.
Detroit +7
San Fran +6.5
Washington +2.5
Oakland +3
Giants +6.5
The Westgate top 5 reverted true to form going 0-5 vs the spread:) The top 5 now sits at 4-6 for the season. For the first 1/2 of the season, you do not want to be on the same side as the top 5.
The Westgate top 5 this week is:
New Orleans
San Fran
New England
I am with 1 of the top 5:) And also fading 1 of the top 5.
One of the interesting things this week about the games is that the public betting on many of the games is split about even.
As a contrarian bettor, that makes it a bit more difficult for me. Two of my picks fall into that category.
That is the way it works when you have to pick 5 games a week. You are never going to find 5 games that you think have excellent value. So you have to adjust a bit and reduce your standards after the obvious games run out:)
Last week the pick I had that was with the top 5 was Pitt -4. They never had a chance. Let’s see if I can do better with San Fran this week.
My tip for this week is that if you are doing your own handicapping, before making a wager on the game check to see where the public is on the game.
If you consistently are on the side of the public, then you need to adjust your technique. If you handicapped to NE and found them to be the bet of the day based upon your handicapping, then you need to start over from scratch:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
Skype: riccja

Westgate NFL Supercontest Picks along with the top 5 contest picks posted!

On Saturday in College football, we had 2 plays and split 1-1. We won with Iowa State and lost with UMass.

We also had 2 Bet or Pass games winning them both on Ilinois and Texas Tech.

Week 1 in the NFL was a Push week for me in the Westgate Supercontest going 2-2-1. Our plays in the NFL last week went 0-2 while our Bet or Pass games went 1-0.

My Westgate SuperContest picks this week are:

Buffalo +7

Pitt -4

Detroit +6

Raiders +6

Green Bay +7

Every once in awhile the lines come out early before the results of an injury are known. Here it was accepted pretty much that Rogers was out and the line was -7 according to the Westgate without him playing. I had thought it was 50/50 and even then the -7 might be overdone a little. As it turned out I guessed right.

The Westgate Supercontest had a rare good start last week going 4-1. Typically you can make a lot of money fading them the first half of the season. Nothing lasts forever:)

The Westgate top 5 this week are:




New Eng


I am with Pitt and fading none of the top 5 this week. Not the place I want to be:)  Its amazing to me that Pitt is in the top 5. Perhaps this means the Westgate is shifting toward more “sharps” than “squares” finally. Too early to tell.

Its never too late to join us for the rest of the football season! Just go to the paypal menu and subscribe. Remember new subscribers can cancel at anytime within the first 14 days and get a full refund.

If you want to get an idea of the Road Map I put out for every football game played, here is the Thursday night road map for the NFL game I sent to subscribers:

NFL – 9/13/2018
13-Sep Model Edge Variable Edge Public % Edge
8:20 PM
101 BAL-J Flacco 0-113 -1-101  -2 -1-115 68%
102 CIN-A Dalton 43.5 43o-110  44.5u-121 43 No Edge Avg Edge Slight Edge 32%

First lets look at the public %. At 68% on Baltimore , that means Baltimore is out of the question. No matter how good the game looks you have to restrain yourself and stay away from betting Baltimore. In addition the Variables point to Cinci tonight. The problem is that the models are  neutral on the game. So that prevents the game from being a play. As far as a bet or pass, it is borderline. These +1 to +2 games need to have a bit more going for them for me to make it a Bet or Pass. Not enough here tonight. But, I would just pass on the game and avoid going with the public tonight.

Good Luck Today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks


Skype : riccja


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Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

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