As we approach the end of the first month of MLB
Let me begin by saying MLB is not for everyone. It is a grind, similar to playing low limit hold em in the casinos. The EV if you have your methods correct is around + 1 to +3 % over the course of a season. In addition, even if you make no mistakes, variance plays a factor. The reason is the number of plays compared to the other sports is very high.
For instance so far this season we have 50 plays that I have sent out to subscribers. When you are wagering every day, with that number of plays the swings are going to be there. And if you cannot deal with it, either financially or mentally, its best to rest up over the summer for the College and pro football season. Many of my subscribers do that, and I encourage them to take some time off. Enjoy your summer:)
But if you are like me, I enjoy handicapping so much that this is a way to keep my mind sharp, help others become better handicappers, and produce positive EV wagers.
With that in mind, this season I am only putting out plays in two areas in MLB. The first is overnight sides. These are plays I send out the day before for the next day. And day of the game totals. That is it.
I keep records on everything I do dating back many years. I have found that these two areas for me are the only reliable positive EV situations I would bet my own money on. I do not bet just to be betting. If I do not feel based upon objective factors that I have an edge, I do not wager.
This April finds us with 50 wagers with two days left in the month. Today I have one play.
The numbers are encouraging. On overnight Sides we sit at 25-25 for +2.85 units. That is a 5.7% ROI which is a very respectable number.
Our day of the game totals are 2-1 for +.90 units.
So we find ourselves +3.75 units. Last season as I recall we picked up about 17 units in these two categories.
One thing I always follow is the top to bottom swing. I did that when I was playing poker full time. It was fascinating to see the difference depending on what game you were playing.
But on MLB top to bottom has been +3.99 to -4.43 units. That is a swing in April of 8.42 units. On 50 plays that not a big swing. And as you can see it is weighted around the 0 line equally.
As the season progresses I would expect this to widen. It would not be unusual to have 20 to 30 unit top to bottom swings.
We had an amazing NFL and College hoop season. My NFL picks this season hit almost 80%. On the bell curve that is a outlier of course, but it is nice to have some positive variance:)
I am very optimistic this season in MLB. My goal is to stick with the program and produce a +15 to 20 unit season for subscribers. Will I meet it this season? Time will tell!
As you can see I enjoy what I do. It is a hobby and one I have been doing for a very long time now.
The mark of a good handicapping service is how many subscribers you have that have been with you from the very beginning (some 20+ years ago). I happen to have many subscribers in that category. primarily because of my transparency and ability to educate and produce positive EV results , year in and year out.
I have had some individuals suggest why don’t I just give everything out for free. I put in a lot of time in what I do, and have a cash outlay for the data and methods I develop. I do not look to make a lot of money, but merely to defray expenses. And at $49.00 a month, where you have access to every sport I handicap during that subscription period, It is substantially less then other services that do not come close to the results I have had over the years.
Many services lock you in for the season, charge per sport, and have fees in the 4 digit category. While mine you can quit anytime.
In addition, I am a stock investor. I share my thoughts on the market to subscribers, while also sharing many of my trades on Slack. This is a value added, for those that have an interest in the markets.
I plan on posting a bit more now that some of the distractions that have come up over the last year have subsided.
As always I can be contacted via email firstname.lastname@example.org.
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks