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If you have Jacksonville +9.5 do you take the middle in sports betting?

Got a break this morning to post a bit on sports betting.

Since I have gotten back to basics we got off on a nice run and since have been slipping a bit. But at least the free fall from the 1/2 unit new bets have stopped.

In addition, I have been monitoring the new bets and they are still looking pretty good. Until I figure out what happened I am not going to put them out or bet on them myself.

We have two football games coming up. I sent out a play very early in the week on Jacksonville +9.5. Since then the line is down to +7 in several sports and I have suggested no middles this time around. Just take the best of the line and tough it out:)

Some emails I think are instructive:

“Rick, when you put this play out I got the line of jags +9.5 -113. Now I see it’s down to +7 -110 on my books. Would you consider going for a middle on this game now or just leave it alone? Thanks.”

My Response:

“I am going to leave it alone. I typically have bet middles when the line move produces edges on the other side by way of variables. Here nothing has changed at all.

In most of these situations, it’s best to know you have way the best of it and let the chips fall where they may:)

Middles tend to lower your EV over the long run.”

“Would you consider trying to go for the middle on your Jacksonville bet if the line drops further, say to -6.5?”

My response:

“I am going to stick with the +9. No middle on this game. The reason is that I see nothing that points to NE. I went for a few middles before as the line move shifted some of the things I look at. But here nothing has shifted at all.”

My subscribers and I have the fortune to be sitting on Jacksonville +9.5. The line movement is a result of Brady being injured in part and also the sharp action on the game.

Its long past time to wager on the game but this is an example of some of my thinking on the game.

I had the game overvalued when I first handicapped the game when the lines were put up.

Now let’s see how it ends up:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpick.com

Skype: riccja

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A 4-0 day on Monday for sports betting. A welcome surprise:)

Sports betting for Monday had 4 plays and went 4-0.

In the NHL we had a 1 unit play on Boston Under 5.5 even winning 4-1 and a 1/2 unit play on San Jose +108 winning 4-1.

In college hoops we had two 1 unit plays:

Cleveland St +17.5 winning 55-70

VMI +8.5 winning 58-65

Nothing like a 4-0 day to get your spirits up:)

We have a 1 unit play pending heading in the NFL this weekend. Nothing else so far.

For subscribers, I send out a breakdown of all the top 25 matchups in college Hoops.

To give you an example of what they are like here is a top 10 matchup from yesterday:

“52% Kansas

48% W.Virginia  -4.5  -6  -4.5  -5.5-111

Models are neutral, Variables are neutral, public % is neutral

A top 10 matchup that gives no clues. If the % by game time lowers on W. Virginia at the very least the public % would favor W. Virginia.

But we would need quite a bit more to happen. A pass”

I did this for every game in the NFL this season and the top 25 matchups in college football.

Not only can these help you in your own handicapping but they also give you a glimpse of some of the things I consider when I handicap a game.

Of course, there are other things I look at but what I send out in these reports have a lot of influence in my handicapping.

If you have any questions you can find me on Skype. My username there is riccja. Or you can follow @rick_sports and get a free trial. Once I see your follow I will log you in and send you some information on how it works.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype: riccja

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NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Over an 8 year period:

1 unit plays

Sides

121-95 56.02% with a 7.64% ROI

Totals:

48-28 63.15% 22.63 ROI

NFL

8 years beginning 2007

103-65 61.3% 18.75%ROI

#4 OVERALL for 2016!!!

See sportswatchmonitor.com for documented 2016 in all sports.
#4 of all handicappers for all results for 2016!!!

THE SPORTS MONITOR LAST SEASON DOCUMENTED RESULTS

NFL

33-21 61.11% 18.33% ROI

http://www.thesportsmonitor.com/15nfl.html

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Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

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