Why you should keep track of your top to bottom swing in sports betting

On Sunday sports betting MLB we went 1-4 on 1 unit plays for -2.68 Units. This brings us +9.95 Units for the Season in MLB.

It’s interesting to watch the ebb and flow of a season. If it is way off previous seasons you can get ideas on the effect of changes you made in the offseason and changes that might need to be considered the next offseason.

In MLB the last two seasons we had very little variance. Top to bottom was no more than 20 units. Most of the seasons were spent below the 0 line to end up with a small gain each season.

This season has taken a different tone. We started out a bit slow but then had a nice almost 20 unit run to the upside from the bottom. Now we are about 4 units off the high but solidly on the plus side for the season.

This is what you want to watch for all sports. Top to bottom swings especially comparing them to previous seasons. In poker, I always kept track of top to bottom swings for each game I played. It was one of the most significant numbers I kept track of as it told me after a few years the bankroll I needed to comfortably play at various limits.

Most gamblers do not consider top to bottom swings.  You should add it to all your gambling endeavors.

I have still been getting a few questions about how to use the below numbers. Simply, if your doing your own handicapping do not wager on a team where there is a strong edge the other way from any of what we look at.

Simplifying if more, if you only look at the models only wager on a side that shows a No Edge + or better. Otherwise, you’re taking too much the worst of the models. And as we have seen the models in MLB are very solid. I do not think you will find any model that is better than what we are using here.

As always if you have any questions please contact me at [email protected] or Skype:   riccja

Good Luck Today

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks


skype: riccja


We are +12.63 Units in MLB and its not even the end of April:)

On Saturday sports betting MLB we had 3 one unit plays and went 1-2 for -1.00 Units.
This season we are having a great MLB season for +12.63 units and it’s not even the end of April!
If you’re interested in subscribing for a month to our group you only need to go to      http://paypal.me/Rickjsports/49
On Saturday we won with Detroit -111 12-4 and lost with Miami +156 5-8, San Fran +180 3-4.
Today so far we have 4 one unit plays.
To give you an idea of what I send out to subscribers each morning early.
This Morning I sent out the following notes:
“A few notes:
1. the only way to view this report is via email. The SMS usually will not format correctly and also you probably will not get the entire report.
2. I started posting the numbers that you can consider if you cannot get my number. I post the pinnacle numbers as I have the last 3 seasons. They provide consistency so I do not pick and choose for line shopping. They are what they are. Since Pinnacle has a few cent lower spread than most books you probably will not be able to get that number. But you should not be off by more than .05c.  If you are then you need to look at the number I post as to the worst number you can take and use that as a guide. Anything within .05 should be an automatic take.
3. I am keeping a running total not only for information purposes but also so that if there are any corrections I would like them as soon as possible. So far we had one correction the first week of the season. Other than that the numbers have been accurate as far as I can tell.
4. Do not get complacent because we are having a great run so far in MLB. Keep to your betting discipline as I assure you variance has not disappeared:)  You cannot wager this number of games every day and not have some downswings. But I see no reason to not be optimistic that we will see good results on these overnights through the end of August. 
5. It’s very rare to find something as profitable as what we are seeing in the overnights. Handicappers would pay a substantial amount of money to get their hands on a method this reliable. So keep it to yourself. Take advantage of it. And if you do we should have quite a bit of longevity to the method. But if it gets out and everyone becomes aware of it, longevity will drop off dramatically and everyone will suffer. “
Each morning I have some notes that bring subscribers up to date on what I am thinking about for the day.
In addition, I include a breakdown of all games for the day. Here is what I sent out Saturday:
MLB – 4/21/2018 Open Line C. Line Model diff Variable Edge Public % Public % Edge
1:05 PM
965 TOR-M Stroman 9o-116  9o-107 No Edge + 46%
966 NYY-J Montgomery (L) -155/+143  -156/+144 No Edge 54% No Edge
1:10 PM
967 KC-D Duffy (L) 8.5u-109  8.5u-110 44% No Edge +
968 DET-M Fiers -111/+103  -117/+108 50+ No Edge 56%
2:15 PM
951 CIN-H Bailey 8u-120  8u-108 25% Strong Edge
952 STL-C Martinez -210/+192  -215/+197 No Edge No Edge 75%
4:05 PM
969 CLE-M Clevinger -165/+152  -180/+165 64%
970 BAL-C Tillman 9o-114  9o-110 30+ No Edge 36% No Edge +
4:05 PM
953 PIT-S Brault (L) 8u-121  7.5 44% No Edge +
954 PHI-A Nola -175/+161  -175/+161 5+ No Edge 56%
6:10 PM
971 MIN-K Gibson 8u-117  7.5 53%
972 TB-B Snell (L) -107/-101  -121/+112 No Edge + No Edge 47% No Edge
7:10 PM
973 HOU-D Keuchel (L)
974 CHW-L Giolito
7:10 PM
955 MIA-J Urena 9  9u-115 30+ 46%
956 MIL-B Suter (L) -167/+154  -160/+147 No Edge 54% No Edge
7:10 PM
957 NYM-J deGrom -135/+125  -155/+143 64%
958 ATL-J Teheran 8u-119  8o-110 No Edge No Edge 36% No Edge +
8:05 PM
975 SEA-J Paxton (L) -139/+128  -168/+155 10+ 68%
976 TEX-B Colon 9o-109  9 No Edge 32% Slight Edge
8:10 PM
961 SD-C Richard (L) 8.5u-117  8u-115 No Edge + Slight Edge 32% Slight Edge
962 ARI-Z Godley -205/+188  -165/+152 68%
8:10 PM
959 CHC-Y Darvish -121/+112  -139/+128 80+ 59%
960 COL-T Anderson (L) 10.5u-119  10u-115 No Edge 41% No Edge +
9:05 PM
977 BOS-C Sale (L) -150/+138  -157/+145 10+ 86%
978 OAK-S Manaea (L) 7u-119  7u-113 No Edge 14% Strong Edge
9:07 PM
979 SF-D Holland (L) 8.5u-113  9u-108 50+ 46%
980 LAA-G Richards -202/+185  -195/+179 No Edge 54% No Edge
9:10 PM
963 WAS-S Strasburg -113/+104  -114/+105 5+ 62%
964 LAD-H Ryu (L) 7o-115  7o-115 No Edge 38% No Edge +
If you’re interested in subscribing for a month to our group you only need to go to      http://paypal.me/Rickjsports/49
I will get you signed onto my private twitter feed along with my email list where you will get a breakdown of every MLB game each morning!
Or if you want a 3-day free trial included go to the PayPal drop-down at rickjshandicappingpicks.com and pick the subscription of your choice.
Either way, I hope to see you join us for a fun MLB Season
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
Skype: riccja

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Thanks Rick! Just want to also say that I really enjoy following along with your plays and swing trades. Also really enjoy the blog, I read it every day.




Over an 8 year period:

1 unit plays


121-95 56.02% with a 7.64% ROI


48-28 63.15% 22.63 ROI


8 years beginning 2007

103-65 61.3% 18.75%ROI

#4 OVERALL for 2016!!!

See sportswatchmonitor.com for documented 2016 in all sports.
#4 of all handicappers for all results for 2016!!!



33-21 61.11% 18.33% ROI



Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

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