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NFL Week 12, Circa NFL Picks for today , Week 10 and season to date recap, Comments on trading methods all posted

The NFL Contest picks are looking pretty good as I enter Week 12.

In the Circa contest I sit at 33-24 which includes to Thursday picks , Det+3  and Jacksonville +7. That is a 57.89% win rate. To cash I am going to need to get upwards of 65% 🙂

In the My bookie contest I sit a bit better at 35-21-1 which includes the same Thursday picks as above.  That is a 62.5% win rate. To cash I will need over 65% again as the field in the My Bookie contests is substantially higher.

In the all spread contest where I pick every game against the spread, after a slow start I now sit at 91-77 or 54.16% against the spread. I was hovering just below the 50% level for awhile, but have had a monster several weeks.  I have already cashed in one of the weekly contests, so my entry is 2/3rd paid for.  I am in 12th place in the contest with #1 at 102-66-0. So 11 wins behind him. I am 1 out of being in the top 10 right now in the contest.

I send out all of my All Spread contest picks to subscribers!!!

My picks this week in the Circa are :

Det +3 (W)
Raiders +7 (W)
Tenn +6.5
Giants +3.5
Seattle +1

It starts to get exciting if I can get a 4-1 or 5-0 day under my belt this week:)

In the Westgate NFL contest the Top 5 YTD record is 27-27-1 going 2-3 last week. This number has had

a wider fluctuation then in the past but as a general rule you want to be fading these top 5 picks rather then

going with them.

This week the top 5 in the westgate are:

Pitt

Rams

Indy

Chargers

Minn

I am not fading any of the top 5 nor am I on any of the top 5. Usually I like to end up fading as many as I can:)

For 1 unit plays I send out to subscribers, this season I sit at 16-15 for Sides and 1-0 for Totals, or combines 17-15.
I had a mid season swoon, but it looks like I am back on track with these plays.

About a year ago I added to this service most of my trading that I make during the day. I included this as a 0 charge

addon to give extra value to the service for those that trade the markets.

My trades consist of a wide variety of methods, but most are in the following group:
1 Mean Reversion trades
2. Swing Trades medium term
3. Day trades (Not very many)
4. Income trades 
5. Short put income producing trades

By far the two most profitable have been since I started posting these are the income trades and the 2 day short put trades.

The 2 could not be any more different.  The 2 day short put trades I place on Thursday morning with a friday expiration. They have several characteristics: 1. Carefully screened as to the underlying health of the stock I am trading the option on 2. A strike price that is 20 to 30 % of the stock price at the time I make the trade  3. No earnings for the next 7 days  4. Enough liquidity that there is no problem getting in and out of the trade.

In managing these, there are two rules of thought. The first is rolling it over if the price of the stock looks like it is going to close through the strike price or taking delivery of the stock and selling calls against it for income.  There is a trade off to these that you should be aware of. 1. You give up a lot of EV by rolling and at times your going to take a huge loss. 2. But the capital requirements are substantially less then the take delivery method.

My view is if you screened correctly the taking delivery and selling calls for income is the better approach. However, saying that the capital requirements can be rather large.  You need to be knowledgeable in this area to understand what I am saying. I am here to a
answer any questions regarding this. But my bottom line is if you have the capital taking delivery has the best return.

The Income trades revolve around Closed end funds trading at a discount to Net Asset Value.  The things they have in common is that most produce a rate of return in the 8% per year area, and most have a substantial discount to NAV when placed.  In addition as in the short put sales, I have a screen I use that gives me the best of the bunch to trade.

It has been as solid a performer as you can get with most of the trades producing not only 8% a year but also a nice capital gain when exiting the trade.

Since I started posting my 2 day short put trades I have had 367 trades, with a 346 -21 win rate or almost 95%. The profit factor on these is 3.86%. This is a very solid system, and as we get more trades under our belt the more confirmation there is as to the validity of the method.  Drawdowns have been minimal and when they happen it takes a very short time to make it back.

The income trades have produced 50 trades with 45 winners and 5 losers. That is a 90% win rate and a profit factor of 16.11 . Not near as many trades as the 2 day short put trades but very promising numbers.

To get an example of what good screening will do for you I had 4 short put sales last week. On Friday we had an 800 pt down move in the Dow, and yet none of my short put trades came close to the strike price.  That is when you know you are using excellent screening methods!!!

In addition about an hour before the open I post my pre market comments to subscribers on slack.

All my trading is put out only via Slack.

The cost of subscribing is only $49.00 a month. Considering that most handicapping and stock services charge many times more then that for just one sport, I would say this is one of the best values out there right now.

 

You have access to every one of the sports plays which now include college hoops that just started. I am off to a great start in college”
hoops with Sides 6-2 and Totals 7-3. Combined record  12-5

To subscribe all one needs to do is 1.go to rickjshandicappingpicks.com 2. select the paypal drop down menu on the first page 3. Select the monthly plan of 49.00 a month and follow the paypal prompts. I will have you added to the email list, slack channels and if you wish to my private twitter feed.

All of the subscription options have a 3 day free trial and if you decide later not to subscribe within the 3 days, you will not be charged. Other wise the service is a month to month service.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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NFL Week 10 , Circa picks for today, Week9 Recap, Comments on trading all posted

A good weekend last week going 4-1 in the contests.

In the My Bookie contest I sit at 28-16-1  or 63.63%

In The Circa contest I sit at 25-20  or 55.45%

In the All Spread contest where I pick every game against the spread I am at 68-68 not including

the Thursday night win.

My Picks this week in the circa contest are:

Jacksonville +10.5
Jets +11.5
New Orleans +3
Washington +9.5
San Fran +4

Last week the Westgate top 5 picks went 2-3 Bringing their record to 23-21-1

The Westgate Picks this week are:

Rams

Tenn

Det

NE

Atl

I am fading 2 of the top 5 and not with any of them. Usually a great place to be:)

 

In trading last week I had 3 short put trades on Thursday and they were both easy winners. Slow but steady is how these are going, with a profit curve that is virtually straight up with very little drawdown.  Almost 95% winners with a profit factor of 3.75.  Not bad for something I came up with when sports was shut down!

 

The other methods I have used since starting to post these trades are, Mean reversion trades, Income trades and pure swing trades.

By far the most profitable has been the 2 day short put trades. Income investing has been solid producing on avg 8% a year in dividends along with additional capital gains when the position is sold.

The mean reversion trades have been solid also, although they do not come along that often.

The swing trades have been spotty:)  Most likely something I need to improve on. But the short puts have consumed me trying to fine tune this method.

As a subscriber to my 20+ year service you now have access to most of my trades via my Slack Channel.

So for only $49.00 a month you get plays, discussion and roadmaps that cover virtually all sports at the time of your subscription. And now an option method that has had spectacular real time results.

Since I started 20+ years ago, I am one of the few individuals or companies who have had 100% transparency. No matter what the results all are readily available for all to see.

Sports betting is one of the hardest areas to make money consistently. The EV is there, but you have to weather a high learning  curve, Variance, and human nature that will sabotage you at every turn. My site guided many through this crazy maze:)

Its not too late to jump on board. We have plenty of NFL and College FB left. In addition, the NHL is in full swing and NBA regular season is almost here.

Just go to rickjshandicappingpicks.com and choose the monthly option on the PayPal menu. That one has the most value, and every option has a 3 day free trial

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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Testimonials

Thanks Rick! Just want to also say that I really enjoy following along with your plays and swing trades. Also really enjoy the blog, I read it every day.

Rickj7

NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Over an 8 year period:

1 unit plays

Sides

121-95 56.02% with a 7.64% ROI

Totals:

48-28 63.15% 22.63 ROI

NFL

8 years beginning 2007

103-65 61.3% 18.75%ROI

#4 OVERALL for 2016!!!

See sportswatchmonitor.com for documented 2016 in all sports.
#4 of all handicappers for all results for 2016!!!

THE SPORTS MONITOR LAST SEASON DOCUMENTED RESULTS

NFL

33-21 61.11% 18.33% ROI

http://www.thesportsmonitor.com/15nfl.html

Categories

Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

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