0

Westgate NFL supercontest picks posted along with Contest Top and bottom 5.

Last week in the Westgate NFL Supercontest I went 2-3 bringing my record in the contest to 31-33-1.

After a very promising start, I have plummeted back to just below 500.  And it has been quite a nose dive after really the fastest start I have ever had in the contest.

My contest picks for this week are :

Cleveland +3

Miami +11

Denver Pick

Jacksonville -2.5

Giants +4

Let’s see if I can get back on track this week and give a respectable final few weeks of the contest.

The Westgate Top 5 this week are:

Phil

Minn

Seattle

Green Bay

Baltimore

The had a big week last week going 5-0. It was long overdone as they are now 28-37-0 or 43.07%.

I am fading one of the top 5 this week.

The bottom 5 this week are :

Bears

Rams

Bills

Giants

Chiefs

I am with 2 of the bottom 5.

So far today I have sent out 2 plays, all carryovers from last week in the NFL.

I plan on doing a write-up very soon about the last few months, in particular, College Hoops.

We have had 3 great seasons in college hoops. The pattern has been that we started out very strong and then winded down to the end of the season with nice plus units.

This season has been dramatically different in College hoops. The November Unders were miserable, and they have been the steadiest the last 3 years. In addition, December has not started out well in college hoops either.

So what does this all mean in college hoops? Not a lot right now. It’s hard to draw conclusions however it is the first drawdown we have had for some time in sports betting. I have to say, I had been surprised how long it had been, typically you get these every few years.

Well, we are getting one now, no mistake about it. The only thing I am doing a bit different this season is the 1/2 unit new plays. And they have been so-so. Nothing like they tested out to be or even how they performed real-time prior to my making them 1/2 unit plays.

However, it’s still too early to tell on these. What has been notable is the NHL Totals. But we have had so few plays, no conclusions can be drawn there also.

The bright spot has been the NBA. So far it has been as solid as I have seen in the NBA since I have been handicapping.

The question is when does one decide that there is no positive EV after successfully handicapping for years. It’s a very similar question that professional poker players ask time and again after a severe bad run.

In poker, its a bit easier to discern as unless your mental psyche has changed dramatically (the variable that allowed you to become a positive EV player) it’s typically related to the player makeup that you play against. And if your objective, you can quantify that aspect of the games.

But in sports handicapping, you do not have that luxury available to you. Its a 0 sum game, where you’re up against the books, and really the other bettors who move the lines. They are the “sharps” and the “punters”.

In addition, you have the factor of the significance of the makeup of those two as to weighing the effect of various line moves in relation to the % of bets on the game.

And then you have to consider how the Books weigh this into the equation.

In a simplistic example, years ago the books knew what side the “punters” would be on. And of course, they made sure that the “punters” was not only on the wrong side but they were taking way worst of what the real line should be. For years, the books took advantage of the punters that way. And as a professional handicapper, it was easy to see the trail and take advantage of it.

But, now, the “sharps” are a very significant part of the equation. And that has muddied up the waters as to what was once obvious. If the books get out of line, they get pounded by the “sharps”

And then you also have the “sharps” front-running the public as they know that other sharp bettors are lurking ready to pounce on lines. That is why you are seeing with a lot of regularity the line move opposite to the public % even at 20 to 30 percent early.

So, what I am saying is that it has become much more complex than what handicapping was years ago. Years ago it was almost too early:)  Now, its a full-time job to pull some EV out of the movements we are seeing.

One more example of this and then I will get back to work. In the NBA, reverse line moves have very little significance anymore. To the contrary, on the sides, it’s best to get better than the opening line. This is not a minor variable in the NBA. Its one of the few very reliable simplistic factors around right now.

Of course, you still have to put the models and public % into the equation, but all things being equal reverse line moves work against you on NBA Sides.

I just wanted to give everyone an oversight into what is going on right now. And also assure you that I am fully aware, more then you can imagine, of the various aspects that are changing in the sports betting world.

I plan on writing up a bit more very soon on this as I think of everything I have neglected this aspect of the site as a tradeoff for the increased work I have been doing handicapping the games.

I plan on getting back on track with my thoughts on the days handicapping and other elements I observe from day today.

If anyone has any questions, do not hesitate to send me an email or contact me via Skype.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype: riccja

0

Westgate NFL Supercontest picks and contest top 5 now posted!

Well, I am now at 500 in the Westgate NFL Supercontest at a 1-4 week last week. After a blistering start, I have cascaded back to normalcy:)

My record heading into this week is 29-30-1.

My picks this week are:

Bears -3

KC -3.5

Buffalo +8.5

Seattle +6

Cinci +5

Let’s see if I can put on a nice drive heading into season end.

The Westgate NFL Supercontest top 5 went 3-2 last week bringing its record to 23-37-0 or 38.33%. I have to say they are outdoing themselves this season:)

The top 5 this week are:)

Green Bay

Seattle

New Orleans

Minn

New England

I am with them on Seattle and fading NE.

The bottom 5 are:

Dallas

TB

Giants

Denver

Houston

On our plays, we are still treading water a bit. We had a lot of plays yesterday and will break them down a bit later after I finish up my spreadsheets.

Also when I post the results from yesterday I will make some comments and respond to some emails regarding how to handle the higher volume of plays we are now experiencing thanks to the 1/2 unit new plays that cover all sports both sides and totals.

It can get mind numbing for sure going from a select few plays to a high volume. The variance increases dramatically but in the end, the profits should be higher.

For instance, out of all sports yesterday, there was only 3 one unit plays. We went 2-1 on those. Then there was 18 1/2 unit plays.

So you can see what I am getting at. If you are not methodical in how you handle bet sizing you will get lost in the shuffle. Before the day starts you should have a clear idea how you are going to bet size for the day. In addition, for those that pick and choosing the new plays, your method should be set and consistent.

I will have more on that later today when I have time. I probably should have written more about it, but it has been a chore for me handling a large number of games also. More in the sense of getting my routine down where it’s a methodical method to come up with the plays timely. As most are not determined until at least 30 min before game time.

So far today I have sent out one 1 unit play.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

Rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype: riccja

Subscribe Via Paypal


Subscription Options
Includes Free Trial



Testimonials

I have been following you for years and been paying down my mortgage with your plays year after year. There is services out there that are 10x more expensive with nowhere near the data and thought that you put into your plays (not that I want you to raise your price!:)) and most of them are losing bettors (trust me I have been thru them all) I will say that this year too is the first year I have had a book quit me because I beat them so bad, not many services can say that.

rickj8

NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Over an 8 year period:

1 unit plays

Sides

121-95 56.02% with a 7.64% ROI

Totals:

48-28 63.15% 22.63 ROI

NFL

8 years beginning 2007

103-65 61.3% 18.75%ROI

#4 OVERALL for 2016!!!

See sportswatchmonitor.com for documented 2016 in all sports.
#4 of all handicappers for all results for 2016!!!

THE SPORTS MONITOR LAST SEASON DOCUMENTED RESULTS

NFL

33-21 61.11% 18.33% ROI

http://www.thesportsmonitor.com/15nfl.html

Categories

Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

Contact Us

We're not around right now. But you can send us an email and we'll get back to you, asap.

Not readable? Change text. captcha txt
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!

Positive EV Handicapping


Do you know the important clues that help determine which side has +EV?
 
  • Learn about Reverse Line Moves and how they apply to each sport
  • Learn about being a contrarian and using public % numbers to get an edge
  • Learn about the seasons with a season that all sports have
  • Learn key numbers in all sports

Sign up to get updates that will help you with your sports handicapping!
 
SUBSCRIBE
close-link