An excellent value coming up in a political odds wager. My take and analysis.

On Friday we had two plays and went 1-1 for +.30 Units in sports betting MLB. That brings us to +16.55 Units Season to date in MLB.

Today we have 4 plays pending and 2 Bet or Pass Totals.

We are rapidly approaching the NFL and College Football season. I have been hard at work getting ready updating everything and updating all my methods.

We had a good football season last year winning in both leagues.

I have received a few emails regarding the Hilton NFL Contest. I have not decided yet whether I am entering it again this season. Its become more of a lottery play than an exercise in handicapping ability.

With over 1000 entrants and the house taking 8% off the top, there is no EV in the Contest anymore. In addition to cash, you have to be in the mid 60%. The only way you will cash if you get some help from positive variance. Without that handicapping skill alone will not get you there.

As far as the money that is open to for part of my entry, that is already covered if I decide to enter the contest.

Typically I take 500.00 of the entry and sell 1,000. The split is according to the amount paid in which no vig by me taken out.

I will decide in a few weeks whether I will enter again this season. Typically I am on the fence and then get the bug and enter. I imagine it will be the same this year.

On a completely different issue, I have a political odds section of this site. I have not updated it for awhile but in looking over the political odds there is one that seems like a very good value.

Right now you can get 5 to 1 that Cavenaugh will not be confirmed to the Supreme Court.

Now, a month ago I would not have thought it would have been a very good wager although 5 to 1 still seems to be overstated with 50 votes needed in the Senate.

But after the vote on Friday on Ryan Bounds where Rubio and Scott torpedoed the nomination just 5 minutes before the vote I see the same thing potentially happening with Cavenaugh.

Scott, I have no idea where he is coming from on this but one of Rubio’s biggest donors is Paul Singer. A vehement anti trumper.

The bottom line is there is big influence coming out to defeat Cavenaugh and keep the Supreme Court 4-4 until after 2018 elections in the hope of the Dems winning back the Senate. They need 50 votes. McCain is out of action so they can only lose 1 republican if the Dems all vote no.

In addition, there are many Republicans that would like to see Trump gone. It is unlikely a 5 to 4 Republican slanted supreme court would uphold Trumps removal from office considering the abuse of power that has taken place in the intelligence community.

However, if they keep it at 4-4 the supreme court is more likely to be deadlocked on the issue.

I put the odds more like 3-2 in favor of Cavenaugh. A big overlay getting 5 to 1.

You heard it here first:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
Skype: riccja


We are +16.23 Units pre all star break in MLB!!! Some considerations for the 2nd half of the season.

We are at the first full slate after the All-Star break and find ourselves +16.23 Units Season to date sports betting MLB.

Its been an interesting journey, to say the least. The first week of the season we hovered a bit below breakeven, then went on a rather amazing run for 2 months hitting 29+ Units.

What was amazing about the run was we virtually no drawdown during the two month period. That is a good example of positive variance at work:)

Then things turned around and we finally had a serious drawdown of close to 20 Units. That is negative variance but not near the degree of the positive we saw the first 2 months.

Then back up to almost +25 Units. And now we sit at 16+ Units.

This is how MLB goes. Very swingy. If you do not have a disciplined betting strategy you have no chance of winning in MLB.

The overnights have been the pillar of our Season with 235 Plays for +19.22 Units. That’s an 8.17% ROI. An excellent number for MLB.

Not only that the overnights have been predictive of the line move 65% of the time with the average move being 4.69.

Behind the overnights are the 1 UNIT Totals. They are 11-5 for +5.66 Units.

Not a lot of plays but these have been solid for some time now. We get one or two plays a week with these.

MLB overnights go on until the end of August. September has not been a productive month for these so I end them at that time.

But, we have the NFL and College Football that takes over in September. One of the most exciting periods for sports betting.

Good Luck Today

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
Skype: riccja

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Thanks Rick! Just want to also say that I really enjoy following along with your plays and swing trades. Also really enjoy the blog, I read it every day.




Over an 8 year period:

1 unit plays


121-95 56.02% with a 7.64% ROI


48-28 63.15% 22.63 ROI


8 years beginning 2007

103-65 61.3% 18.75%ROI

#4 OVERALL for 2016!!!

See sportswatchmonitor.com for documented 2016 in all sports.
#4 of all handicappers for all results for 2016!!!



33-21 61.11% 18.33% ROI



Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

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