Rickjs Handicapping Picks - Sports Betting at its finest
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Off to a strong start in football 7-2 College 3-1 Pro!!! Week 3 update my thoughts for a Sunday morning

Another easy time of it in College Football this weekend going 3-1. We started off with a win on Middle Tenn St +5.5 on Friday 35-37. Then on Saturday, we had three plays: Florida St +12 Losing 10-52 S. Carolina +4.5 covering 27-31 and Vanderbilt +31.5 with an easy 12-17 cover.

So in NCAA FB we are now 7-2 for +4.8 Units Season to date.

In MLB the regular season for me has ended as there are no plays today. We finished up the last day of wagering with a bang going 2-0 for +2.9 units for the day. That ended up the regular season at -6.985 units for the regular season. The top to bottom spread for the 2 months was +2 units to -11 units. A rather narrow spread historically.

The shortened season was a crapshoot especially with the last second pitching changes daily. But, it is what it is, and as promised I refunded half of the subscription fee for MLB. It was the first year that I had to do that since I started this. Hopefully, next year will bring professional sports back to normal.

In the NFL the one unit plays are 3-1. We started off week 1 1-1 and went 2-0 last week, winning with the Chargers and Denver.

My top 5 picks based upon the Westgate lines that I send to subscribers on Saturday went 2-3 . That brings my record to 3-7 for the first two weeks.

In the All Spread Contest, I went 11-5 last week. Then I lost the Thursday night pick. So my record in the contest is 17-16 picking every game against the spread. I send these out to subscribers on Sunday.

The Westgate top 5 has started out strong going 3-2 last week and is now 7-3 for the season. Historically it has been a winning method to fade these, at least early in the season.

The Westgate top 5 this week are :

Atlanta
Arizona
Giants
NE
Dallas

My top 5 picks vs the Westgate lines this week are :

Minn +2.5
Wash +7
Bears +3
Denver +6
Balt -3.5

I am on none of the top 5 this week and fading their top pick.

The bottom 5 this week is :
Miami
Jacksonville
Bears
Jets
San Fran

I am with one of the bottom 5 and not fading any of them.

I will have a separate post on my political wagers later.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com
slack: Rickjsports

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NFL Week 2 Comments, 2 new “dirty 30 fades” , some political advice. My thoughts for a Sunday morning

On Saturday we had an easy time of it in college football.  Liberty +15 won the game 30-24 and Abilene Christian +8.5 +105 covered 13-17.  That brings us to 4-1 Season to Date in college football for +2.95 Units.

In the NFL after week 1 we are 1-1 on plays for -.20 units. We have one play so far today I sent out to subscribers. 

Last week my Westgate top 5 picks went 2-3.  In the All Spread Contest, picking every game against the spread I went 6-10:( So after a >55% picks AGS last season I am off to a slow start this season.

I have sent out my all spread contest picks to subscribers.

As I indicated last week for the first time in a long time I did not enter the Westgate contest. The uncertainty surrounding professional sports was the deciding factor. Once things get back to normal (whatever that is) I will enter the contest again.

My 5 Picks this week using the Westgate lines:

Denver +7

Houston +8.5

Chargers +8.5

Carolina +9

Minn +3

After the first 3 things got a lot tougher.  The last one Minn was a crapshoot. As I had nothing really to choose from the way I handicap the games. So I picked what I thought was the best of the worst:)

The Westgate top 5 last week started out 4-1 ATS. Historically it has been profitable to fade the top 5.

This week the Westgate top 5 is:

KC

GB

SF

NYG

Phi

I am fading one of the top 5 and not on any of the rest.

The bottom 5 this week is:

Cincy

Chicago

Cleveland

Jets

Chargers

I am on one of the bottom 5 this week.

For those following my political plays I added two wagers this week to my “dirty 30” wager:

NJ-02  66/34

VA-02 24/76

These are the House races that Trump carried in 2016. That brings the number wagered to 14 of the 30. My plan is to wager on all 30 as the lines are posted.

I am expecting to do no worse than 50% with a net line of +2 to 1 avg on all wagers. If I am correct that is a nice positive EV.

I have been told I am letting my emotions cloud my judgment 🙂  I seriously doubt that. I have always been objective when it comes to any kind of wagering. But who knows, we are all subject to influences some of which we are unaware of. Time will tell:)

As I have said before I have no dog in this fight. I have my opinions, but, am well aware of the brutal nature of politics in the U.S. So I try to stay focused on what is important. Staying safe and my family safe. It is not healthy to invest too much emotional energy in a blood sport like politics. Let the useful idiots do that.

Stay focused and balanced. That is the key, my friends.

One way to test yourself is if you either 1. Think Trump is a god or 2. Trump is a demon from hell, you have lost your perspective. He is neither. He has his good points and bad points as does everyone. Do not let the media and the politicians suck you into their nightmare.

I have seen family and friends succumb to this, and it is not a pretty sight. If you have learned anything over the last 20 years I have been posting on this site, you should have learned there is no black and white. When a large group is trying to tell you something is true, it is probably not true. Always consider the contrarian side, as usual, you will be right more often than not.

I want to give you some examples because I feel this is an important point:

I have a good friend that is an avid Trump hater. He is obsessed with his hatred of Trump. Of all the poker players I have run into over the years there are but a handful I consider friends and he is one of them.

So, needless to say, we do not talk politics:)  But I did mention to him that HCQ was the way to go if you happen to catch COVID. I spent 30 years as a medical negligence attorney and one of my skills is medical research. I came to that conclusion long ago. It is a no brainer. I won’t go into my reasoning but if anyone wants to know just email me.

To make a long story short, his reply was he would not talk anything Drumph recommended.  That my friends is peak TDS.

I will leave it at that, but there are many more examples. This is one I thought many of you might find humorous.

I will give an update soon on my political wagers and my thoughts on the upcoming election. In addition, there is a new line up on the Supreme court pick.

Good Luck Today

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

http://rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Slack: Rickjsports

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Over an 8 year period:

1 unit plays

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121-95 56.02% with a 7.64% ROI

Totals:

48-28 63.15% 22.63 ROI

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103-65 61.3% 18.75%ROI

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Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

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