How do you know when you have lost your edge as a sports bettor?

After a grueling MLB season of sports betting where we ended up the regular season even and lost 4 units in post season play, we are now in a draw down mode at the beginning of college hoops.

You never know when these are going to begin. They can happen at any time and can test you without a doubt.

Saying that we are sitting at -11.45 units in college hoops thanks primarily to the 1 unit totals starting out dismally.  We are sitting at 10-17 in our 1 unit totals or -8.7 units.

Is this out of the ordinary?  Not at all. 20 to 30 unt downswings are going to come in sports betting if you wager every day. There is no way to avoid it. I wish there were but it comes with the sports betting experience.

Its very similar to limit poker. After playing 40 to 60 hours a week for almost 13 years I can tell you that every several years your going to get a downswing that makes you wonder why your even in the poker room. Its just the way gambling is.

If your undisciplined with your betsizing you do not have a chance betting daily. You cannot win. Its really that simple.

Also, if losing a game with a fumble runback in the last seconds of the game, or getting beat on an under because of OT sets you off your in the wrong business.

I have been a instrument rated pilot, a trial attorney trying complex medical neglignce and product liability cases along with a few murder trials interspersed inbetween and can tell you that neither of those is as taxing on a persons psyche as gambling every day.

Its not even close.

I only bring this up now, not only because we are off to a slow start in college hoops but also because I have not posted regularly on the sports betting portion of the site. I have posted on Sunday for the NFL and thats been about it as my daily records can be found on the google sheets that I update daily.

If your finding this all too much to endure, than take a break. That is what I have done playing high limit poker. I used to drop down to the lower limit holdem games for a few weeks to get my mind straight. Holdem was the perfect game because unlike a ring game of omaha 8 , holdem required you to think and process the information.

I could teach a monkey to beat a 10 handed omaha 8 ring game:)

I have said my piece now on this. Most of you that have been following me for some time now that this is the way sports betting works. Bettors that jump on board thinking its a gravy train usually do not last but a few months.

But if you pick the appropriate bankroll size and then bet size properly you will have a long career betting sports. Assuming of course that your a positive EV player and have curbed your bad habits, such as tilting!  I know easier said than done:) I have been there and done that.

If anyone has any questions, feel free to get ahold of me on skype. My user name there is riccja. I have it on most of the trading day and also when handicapping.

Good Luck Today




Westgate NFL Supercontest picks and Top 5 now posted!!!

We have gotten very busy with College totals, both in the hoops and football.

Yesterday we had 7 totals in college football going 5-2.  We also had a 1 unit play in college football with Purdue +7 winning 24-15. And we lost with a 1/2 unit play on Rutgers +10.5 losing 0-41.

In the NHL we had a 1/2 unit play on Arizona +161 winning 3-2.

In College Hoops we had a 1/2 unit play on Princeton +3.5 losing 58-71.

Our new leans are starting to pick up a bit going 2-0-1 on NHL totals, 0-1 on NHL sides, 1-0 on NBA sides and 1-1 on NBA totals. So 4-2-1 for our New Leans yesterday.

Overall a good day winning over 2 units.

Now onto the NFL:

A 2-3 week last week in the NFL brings me to 26-23-1 or 53%:(

I had high hopes after a very fast start in the Westgate NFL Supercontest contest. But am slowly heading back to the 50% mark. Time is quickly running out.

My picks this week in the order I liked them at the time:

Giants +10.5
Cleveland +7.5
Dallas +3.5
Minn -2
Chicago +2.5

The first 3 were fairly easy picks, Minn was an easy one for my 4th pick but Chicago was a tough one. I had to decide between Chicago or Washington.

I decided to take the worst of it and go with chicago as the line was +3 at the time. I will most likely be the only person on Chicago this week:)

The Westgate top 5 went 1-4 last week bringing their record to 17-33-0.  Thats a rousing 34%!!!

I have to say that have outdone themselves this season!

They certainly are consistent.

The Westgate top 5 this week:






I am on 1 of the top 5 with MIN, and fading two of the games.

The bottom 5 this week are:






Well, I have to get going as time is running out. I need a monster rush starthing today. We will see:)

So far today I have sent out 2 one unit plays.

As I said things are picking up. There is a window for college totals and we are in it right now. Rarely do you get windows like this but November historically has been a very good month for college totals under certain circumstances.

College hoops has just begun and its not too late to join us for the season. Sign up and take a 3 day free trial. I dare you:)

Good Luck Today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks


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Over an 8 year period:

1 unit plays


121-95 56.02% with a 7.64% ROI


48-28 63.15% 22.63 ROI


8 years beginning 2007

103-65 61.3% 18.75%ROI

#4 OVERALL for 2016!!!

See sportswatchmonitor.com for documented 2016 in all sports.
#4 of all handicappers for all results for 2016!!!



33-21 61.11% 18.33% ROI



Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

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