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How many outs do you need if your a sports bettor?

Tuesday we had two plays and went 0-1-1 as a sports bettor.

We had a 1 unit play on Syracuse +4 and got a push, and we had a 1/2 unit play on Penn State Under 134.5 and lost by 1/2 a point.

Tuesday is a good example of getting at least two lines to bet. One a “sharp” line and the other a book that moves with the public. A good example of a public book is Bovada.

You could of gotten Syracuse +5 On Bovada.

So instead of a 0-1-1 day yesterday you could have had a 1-0-1 day as there were a number of 135s out there on the under in Penn State.

Over the course of the season, this can add up substantially.

So do yourself a favor and make the effort of searching for two books to bet these games with.

So far today I have sent out no plays.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

Skype: riccja

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What side of the bell curve are you on as a sports bettor? This will give you a hint:)

On Monday we had two 1/2 unit plays in the NHL and won them both a good day as a sports bettor!

Chicago Under 5.5-115 won 3-1 and Vegas under 5.5 +105 won 2-0.

So far today I have sent out no plays.

I have mentioned a few times before what separates the one unit plays from the 1/2 unit plays.

It might be a good idea to go over this in a bit more detail.

First of all, the concept of fooled by randomness is always prevalent. Patterns can be seen in any set of data if you look hard enough. So the idea is to sort through the mess of data and come up with patterns that can be reliable enough to wager on.

I read a good article this morning:

https://www.buildalpha.com/3-simple-ways-to-reduce-the-risk-of-curve-fitting/

This is pretty simplistic but gives you a good idea of some of the considerations in coming up with ideas that might produce positive EV results.

I test quite a few ideas of the course of a year. At any one time, I might have 50 to 100 on the backburner waiting to see how the first year of real-time exposure pans out. Almost without exception, 95% of them prove out to be worthless.

The small % that survives are typically 1/2 unit plays for the next season. Of those, some do not make it and are dropped. But the small few that do produce over 55% winners real time for two years become one unit plays.

Now, this is not hard and fast. There is some judgment involved. The reasoning has to be logical, at least logical in a sports handicapping sense. Remember, that is not the Punter’s logic but the professional gambler’s logic:)

In addition, I use another filter that has weathered the test of time. I rarely wager on a method that does not improve as the % of betting on the team decreases. So a solid system should improve to some degree as the % of betting on the team goes from 100% to 0%.

My initial threshold is 49%. If I do not see a dramatic improvement in the results when reducing the % to 49% I typically through the method out. For me there is just too much chance that randomness has come into play as my assumption in handicapping is that as a general rule the greater the % bet on a team the more likely hood there is EV on the other side.

You will come across a lot of methods that look great regardless of the % bet on the team. I steer clear of those. As in any universe of games, there will always be a subset like this. That’s the way the bell curve works!

So, as an example, let’s look at the two totals in the NHL last night.

If you are a subscriber you know that totals in the NHL are few and far between.

But let’s take a look at the graph of the returns since this method was put into real-time:

 

This is what I like to see. The first year of real-time was great. This year was even better. But it’s not a straight-up graph but the downdrafts are minimal.

So most likely the 1/2 unit plays on the totals I used last night next season will be one unit plays as it will have weather 2 years of real-time testing.

I have been getting a lot of questions about how I do things. Typically more in a downswing:) But that’s just human nature. I tend to be the same way.

If anyone has any questions please do not hesitate to let me know. I am available on either Skype or [email protected] My username on Skype is riccja

 

Do not forget the March Madness special is available right now. It runs from the signup date until April 2nd when the final NCAA tournament game is played. The cost is only $44.00 and compared to other services is a pittance:)

I have made it easy to sign up:

https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/Rickjsports/44

That will take you to the subscription page. Once completed send me an email with your twitter handle and I will add you to my private twitter feed.

Not only do you get all the NCAA Tournament plays, but you get all plays in all sports I handicap from the signup date until April 2nd.

Come join us for a fun NCAA Tournament!

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype:  riccja

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Testimonials

I have been following you for years and been paying down my mortgage with your plays year after year. There is services out there that are 10x more expensive with nowhere near the data and thought that you put into your plays (not that I want you to raise your price!:)) and most of them are losing bettors (trust me I have been thru them all) I will say that this year too is the first year I have had a book quit me because I beat them so bad, not many services can say that.

rickj8

NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Over an 8 year period:

1 unit plays

Sides

121-95 56.02% with a 7.64% ROI

Totals:

48-28 63.15% 22.63 ROI

NFL

8 years beginning 2007

103-65 61.3% 18.75%ROI

#4 OVERALL for 2016!!!

See sportswatchmonitor.com for documented 2016 in all sports.
#4 of all handicappers for all results for 2016!!!

THE SPORTS MONITOR LAST SEASON DOCUMENTED RESULTS

NFL

33-21 61.11% 18.33% ROI

http://www.thesportsmonitor.com/15nfl.html

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Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

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