Two ranked teams facing off at 1:00
Betting is 69 % on the road dog with the line moving from -3 to -3.5-118. So right off we have a red flag where the bulk of the betting is on the dog. That points me to looking only at the favorite here. My models ever so slightly lean to Arizona, Variables are neutral and Public betting strongly favors Oregon. This is a game I would be looking to bet Oregon if I had even one solid variable pointing that way. However, I do not and I am passing. But if you’re tempted to go with the dog you might want to take another look at the game!
The number 3 team in the country plays at 11:00
Betting is 61% on the home favorite with the line moving from -11 to -10+102. Let me start out by saying rarely do you get value betting on highly ranked teams. The bookmakers and the public typically have enough influence to assure its either the dog or pass. Here we have a reverse line move favoring the dog. More and more the “sharps” are playing a role in shaping the lines so that it becomes a battle between all 3 players.
My models point to Iowa State but not as clear as I would like. Variables are neutral. Public betting favors Iowa State. If I had some strong variables pointing to Iowa state I would wager on them without hesitation. But here there is none and without that I do not be on a game. So I am passing.
Friday we had 1 play and it was a winner.
In the NHL we won with Detroit -109 5-4.
Today so far no plays have been sent out.
With around 150 games today I imagine there will be several plays:)
An early game between two ranked teams:
Betting is 68% on the home team with the line moving from Purdue -3 to Maryland pick -103. Models are as neutral on the game as they could be, variables also are neutral. Public betting no edge also.
The game must be a service play or perhaps several services putting out the game as the line move of 3 pts is a substantial move.
Usually, when you get a large move like this I like to consider fading it. But with nothing else to go on it’s not much of a money maker blindly fading steam. If the models showed value I might, however, consider it. But that is not the situation here. So I am passing on the game.
I received an email the other day asking how I manage Saturdays we over 100 games to handicap.
It would be very difficult if you looked at them all at the same time. So I typically look at them by their starting times. For instance the 9:00 games there are only 5 to handicap. So I concentrate on those 5 up until game time then move onto the 10:00 games.
That way I can systematically focus on just the games coming up without distraction from 90 other games.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks