One day before the midterms and the stock market is hovering around the neutral mark, an hour before the open.
TLT and Oil are positive, while financials and metals are negative.
That to me has a negative premarket bias. I would not be surprised to see a dip this morning. Or at the very least a range day heading into Tuesday’s elections.
As everyone tells us every day everything is on the line tomorrow:) I wonder though, they say that every election!
Although, to me, it seems like there is much more riding on these midterms then previously. The Anti Trumpers and Dems have raised the stakes over what they typically are in a mid-term.
Just the surveillance of the Republican politicians by the U.S. intelligence agencies taken alone has made the stakes very high this time around.
If the Dems get the House and Senate it all goes away, vice versa, and the repercussions could be brutal.
And that is just one of the various different issues that you do not usually find in a midterm.
So where are we in this one. The polling is all over the board. The odds are the Republicans are a heavy favorite to keep the Senate and about a 2 to 1 dog to lose the House.
But its interesting to see all the backtracking now that it’s not so clear the Dems will take the House. As I said yesterday in my political odds section, getting 2 to 1 has a lot of value as I see it.
So much so I put out some feelers to some poker players to see if anyone might be interested in laying 2 to 1. So far, no takers.
If this were a sporting event, I would put the Republicans out as 1 unit play taking 2 to 1 on the House.
This relates to the stock market as if the Republicans keep control of both branches the stock market will most likely consider the economic boon to continue.
I would expect a big rally on Wedn if that occurs. On the other hand, if the Dems take the House, most likely we get a sell-off, but a short one. If they happen to take the House and the Senate, look out below.
And also at the same time, we have several Caravans approaching through Mexico. That has the potential to turn into something very ugly. You have thousands approaching the U.S. southern border, while the U.S. Military now have troops there, and then an unknown number of private armed militia.
Something to watch if you’re active in the markets. If things get out of control, I do not expect the markets to look favorably on this.
Another thing to keep in the back of your mind is Xi meets with Trump on Dec 2nd. If positive things come out of that meeting on Trade expect a massive year-end rally.
Finally, we are now officially in the best six months of the year for the stock market. Remember, that is based on historical numbers. No guarantee that this trend will continue. But it has been pretty solid.
I have been asked many times now about real news sources. So many times I decided to put together a twitter list and make it public.
It’s under Rickjsportplays and the list name is Realnews.
A caveat. It leans right. So if you happen to fall into the “progressive left” camp, as some of my friends and family do, do not bother as you will not like what you read.
But if you’re a moderate on either side or an independent like me, you will most likely gain some value following the list. I assure you it’s substantially better than what you get on the mainstream media these days.
Now that we are in the “best six-month” period I plan to get a bit more active in my trading. Always look to invest more when I have a tailwind:)
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks