3:40 Update
The two game I was looking at were colorado and Boston. But the public numbers do not justify a play. In addition colorado has moved to a pick rather then a home dog. So….no plays today.
Sunday we lost our 1 unit play on Cleveland +102.
I did receive the following message:
“really don’t understand the cle pick. Betting against the cy young winner with barely even odds isn’t going to win in the long run? Curious about your models Rickj. What led you to believe this is a +EV play. Not being negative just wondering. Signed a long time follower.”
The methods I use in handicapping consist of models and variables. I try not to get involved with the type of analysis you suggest as I feel it leads you to the wrong
team most of the time. What you mention to me in the above statement would lead me to believe that the value would be on cleveland. When the line makers put out the number on the game the information you mention was well known to them. The oddsmakers knew when they put the number out at Detroit -120 that the public would be all over that number and they were right….75% of the betting was on Detroit. But…the line moved down to Detroit -108 by game time. Which tends to indicate sharp money is on Cleveland.
I can tell you in the long run if you take home dogs where the public is <30% with a reverse line move you will make money on this subset in the long run. My approach pretty much is a contrarian approach. In order to have the best chance at making money in sports betting you really have to think differently then the public. What you mention above should be a red flag that Detroit is not the right side of the game. Now.....of course Detroit won the game:) But we are looking at the long haul for these setups. I hope this gives you a clearer picture of my thought process. Thanks for the question as it brings up a very instructive issue regarding sports betting. Today all are late games and there are several that could be plays. I will update with any plays shortly before game time. I mentioned last week regarding shorting this market for a swing trade. The markets does not look like its going to give me a chance to short unless we get a pretty good rally by the end of the day. I will have to wait for my next setup to appear. Good Luck Today RickJ Rickjshandicappingpicks.com Twitter: rickjsportplays Twitter: rickjswingtrade
