The first NBA game of the day is getting ready to start soon with:
Betting is 63% on Miami with the line moving from -4.5 to -5.5. Models are neutral and variables ever so slightly favor miami. I am passing on the game. But interestingly enough both heavy public road favorites covered last night even with a strong reverse line move. So as you can see it takes a bit more then fading the public to pull in winners. In any event there is nothing very compelling to me for either side of this game so a clear cut pass.
Let me say that if you made it through the first month of baseball and are still enthusiastic like I am your on your way or are a skilled handicapper. I would say that by now 20 to 25% of the public is gone and building up their bankroll for the slaughter they will incur in the NFL. It’s a never ending recurring pattern. The purpose of this site is not only to put out +EV plays but also to educate bettors into the mindset and skills needed to weather the storm. Rest assured despite what other sites try to tell you…”There is no easy money to be made in sports betting“!!!!!. You can memorize that and never forget it.
All these promises of Lock of the year, 80% winners, retire for life, earn 1000 a week, should put you on notice. Of course, you can pay 1500 for one season of a sport and hope that the handicapper has a good season that can not only cover the 1500 but also give you a nice gain. And also has a method that has a low standard deviation (variance). Because to put up 1500 for one season would mean 100.00 a game will not do it ….Minimum 1500 a game with 30,000 drawdowns no matter what method they are employing.
So what is one to do? Let me say that the learning curve is very steep if you go it alone. I have been doing this for years and I am always learning something new. The oddsmakers do not make it easy. Also with the every increasing sharp money its no long as simple as fading the public. Fading the public is still an important tool but you had better have several more in your arsenal.
In addition, if you think you’re going to be able to beat the books based on your knowledge of the game, the players, the injuries, the coaches, the refs etc you had better think again. Many a handicapper has gone dusted thinking that way. It’s by far the hardest approach riddled with pitfalls. Just ask Pete Rose, or several of the college quarterbacks that went broke and more doing just that. Or the TV commentators that give their opinions on the games that are breakeven at best.
Handicapping every day requires a certain skill set along with an obsessive compulsive anal approach thrown into the mix.
Finally handicapping is all about finding value. A game that is played today with the same players might have value today but if played 2 weeks from now not have value. It’s little things like that you need to understand as simple logic will not get you there.
Ok….I never know what is going to come into my head when I sit down and type in the morning but there you have it. Let me know what you think and you find it has some value please share by tweeting, liking and posting on whatever boards you follow. I would appreciate it immensely:)
Friday we had a busy day with 2 one unit plays, 2 1/2 unit plays and 3 setups.
The one unit plays were in baseball winning with San Diego +136 2-0 and losing with Atlanta +143 2-7. Nice to see Pomeranz pitch a 3 hit shutout for us!
We also had two 1/2 unit plays going 1-1 in the NBA. Oklahoma City Under 200 was a winner 100-96 and Atlanta Under 197 lost 121-108.
Finally, we went 2-1 on our new Bet or Pass Setups in baseball. Winning with NY Yankees -102 3-2, winning with Texas +106 5-1 and losing with Minn +111 4-10.
I was asked about whether I am going to be betting these new setups and why all of a sudden am I sending them to subscribers.
1. I will not be betting them
2. These give you an idea of what I am doing in the background day in and day out in every sport attempting to find positive value. Typically I have not been posting them lately as I have found that most gamblers no matter how many times you tell them are going to find a way to bet them. So I stopped the bet or pass for awhile. But these new setups look so promising to me that I am going to make an exception. But remember they have not passed the Real-time testing I require to bet them.
Its shaping up to be another busy day today at least from my first purview of the games on tap today.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks