12:55 Update
The 2nd game of todays NFL is
Green Bay
Washington
Betting is 53% on GB and the line has moved from Washington -2 to Washington -1. Models have the game about right at a toss up. Variables on the other hand strongly favor Green Bay. Another thing to note is there is more betting on the dog although only 53% its still more. That as you know is a red flag for me to consider the favorite. So a lot of conflicting ideas on this game and for me that equates into a pass on the game.
I did put out Minn +5.5 earlier in the week as a play for subscribers. Now I just need to hold off Seattle scoring a touchdown for an easy cover! We will see how easy it is now that we are at the 2 min warning with Seattle having a 3rd and 5 on their 30:)
Saturday we went 2-0-1 on our sports plays winning our NHL play on MINN +120 in an easy 2-1 win. Dallas scored their only goal late in the game. Our other winner was a nail biter. How many times have you had the Dog in a game and had the game covered the entire game but then to lose it in OT. I have had the happen with +7 before. So with USC +3.5 it was looking like deja vu. And not only did we need to sweat an OT but 4 OTs:) But in the end USC not only covered but won the game. Good handicapping won out! Our other play was in college hoops with Wisc +3 and it was a push.
Our setups went 4-3 yesterday. 3-3 in college hoops and our setup on the under in Cincinnati game was an easy cover. These totals will definitely be plays for me next season. They are 18-9 so far this season!
Today things slow up a bit after all the number of college hoop games has been cut by almost 90%!
I had what I consider an educational discussion with a subscriber this morning I would like to share:
I was asked whether a certain fact was known to me about two teams when I handicapped the game. Below is my response:
“Really my only question is do the Book makers know it. I handicap a bit differently then most. I assume that almost all relevant facts are known to the bookmakers before they put out the line. In addition they know pretty much which side the public is going to be on before they put out the line. And finally they have a pretty good idea what the “sharps” will be doing.
So its a balancing act but the end result is a line that approximates what the true value actually is taking into consideration mostly the public and making adjustments.
For instance there are some games that if they put out the true value line they will have almost no action on one side. That is why you see lines in the NFL that look like they have made a mistake. Usually its right to take the other side of the “mistake”.
In any event I handicap looking at reasons on this particular day why a team might have a better then 5% chance of covering the spread. I know of only 1 maybe two people that can handicap successfully based upon the makeup of the players of the teams. And even for them they incorporate a lot of what I do.
So I feel that the player on each team is irrelevant in handicapping the game. My guess is if you could back test covering the spread based upon the players on the team the results would be that the team with the least statistically good players would cover more often. Its weird but that is just how I think!
Now also that is not to say that when they play it might be a blow out by the better team. But if you run the game 1000 times my guess is the statistically worst team would come on top against the spread.”
Thinking contrary to the public’s perceptions is the 1st step in becoming a successful handicapper. There are many more but that is an important first step!
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RickJ
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