The first game of the weekend in the NFL coming up:
Betting is 52% on Atlanta with the line moving from -4-103 to -6.5-110. It is -7 in a few spots. My models point slightly to Seattle. Models point strongly to Seattle and public betting is neutral. I was hoping to see the betting lopsided on Atlanta as I would have bet Seattle. But since the betting is split about even this game has to be a pass for me.
Good Luck which ever side you choose today.
Finally some free time this morning. These Saturdays tend to get pretty busy with over 100 games to handicap.
On Friday we went 2-0 with both of our plays in the NHL.
We won with Toronto +125 and Islanders +120. A +2.45 Unit day.
Today so far I have sent out 2 one unit plays.
Let ms share an email:
“Hey Rick, does weather play into your handicapping at all? Ice storm projected for KC this weekend. “
“Yes but mostly on the totals. Now Ice storm I doubt there are very many samples to draw conclusions from. But the general idea is to wait until the public has pounded the under and then go over. This works out ok with games where it is freezing and windy.
That’s a general idea. Of course, there are other things to consider but typically what you do not want to do is find yourself taking the obvious under. In these situations, it is either over or pass.”
Let me add, handicappers tend to do best when they think as a contrarian. Not only do you tend to find yourself on the right side more often but you also tend to get the benefit of an inflated line.
Back to work for me.
Good luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks