2-0 pm Friday with big move games predicting the line moves 4-1 for RickJ!!!

Friday we had 2 1/2 unit plays and they both won.

San Diego -102 won 6-3 and Pitt +100  won 5-3

We also had 5 Big move games with the line moving our way 4-1.

San Fran -110   -120   +.10

Texas -145   -137   -.08

Dodgers -130  -140  +.10

Tor   +120     +129   +.09

Det   -117    -135   +.18  (Middle)

Detroit was the first game of the season I designated a middle. These are games that I feel have excellent chances of obtaining a middle on a 10c line.

If you would have taken the middle on this game you would have laid -117 and received +125 by game time. A +.08 unit gain as the dog won.

These will be few and far between, but today we also had a middle game. Let’s see how these turn out.

Another thing to note is despite our have a record of  55-17-1 or 75.34% in predicting line moves if you would have bet each game outright you would be 34-39 for a -7.635 unit loss. Compared to -3.81 units on plays so far this season.

I point this out as many feel if you have a way to get the best of the closing line that it is a no brainer to bet these games. But so far despite the fact, our average difference is +.0942 so far the plays are doing much better. This is something to follow for those that are proponents of having the best of the closing line to assure a gain. I myself am not a proponent of that.

We started off 0-9 this season and have come back to -3.81 units. So far we are recovering from a very slow start.

Note, that despite all my rhetoric I am back to using 1/2 unit plays. Now, this may seem like a flip flop (in political parlance) but those that have been following me for awhile know that it is not.

1. The 1/2 unit plays this season are much better filtered than last season

2. What I say and what I do are often different a bit later. Some, I know were either perplexed or in one instance downright rude in responding to these 1/2 unit plays.

What people that have been following me begin to understand is that what I write on occasion is merely my thought process as opposed to anything that is dogmatic. My thought process can get a bit over the top on occasion especially when you are juggling the numbers I do.

It would scare you to take a look at the spreadsheets I decipher each morning. It would most likely remind you of the wall that it was discovered John Nash had when they went into his office.

 

Related image

 

In any event, there us no flip flopping but business as usual. If you’re looking for dogmatic unwavering routines you are at the wrong place. Handicapping just does not work that way.

So far today I have sent out no plays and  7 Big Move games with 1 middle.

If anyone has any questions about today’s post please send me an email.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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