An interesting game coming up at 4 in the NBA:
Betting is 75% on New Orleans and the line has moved from -4.5 to -2. Turns out that Anthony Davis is out for this game and the line has moved in reaction to that. I was getting ready to pull the trigger on Minn +4.5 and now we get this late move. That takes the wagering on Minn out of the question for me and it does introduce another setup that typically fares pretty well in the NBA. Taking the Injured team the first game of a key player injury. Typically when that happens the team plays with more focus and intensity than usual. So you get a combination of that plus usually and over adjustment to the line. For me though I am going to pass on the game but if you’re doing your own handicapping its something to consider.
Several top 25 matchups coming up in 30 min:
# 22 Utah
Betting is 48% on the home fav Utah with the line moving from -3 to -3.5. Variables and models have no clues on the value of the sides. However the 48% on the home favorite #22 utah with the line moving contrary to the betting is a red flag for me to stay away from arizaon. Not enough however to wager on Utah or even have Utah a setup. A pass
Betting is 66 % on the Road Favorite Oklahoma with the line moving from even to -2.5 -110. Again models and variables provide no help. Public betting really is not much help either as far as a clue. The only thing I can say is if you like Oklahoma your taking 2.5 pts the worst of the opening line. A bit late to get on the Oklahoma bandwagon today. A pass for me.
#12 Miami Fl
Betting is 63% on the home fav Miami. The line has moved from -3 to -2.5 +101. Again as the two other variables and models provide no clues. However we have a pretty clear reverse line move that points to Louisville. With Louisville at 37% I would give the move a little weight but not enough for a play or a setup. I just would not want to fade the reverse line move. A pass for me.
Friday we went 2-1 on our plays winning with Harvard in college Hoops and Charlotte in the NBA. And losing with Rider in college hoops.
I have been posting a lot of discussions between subscribers and myself for educational purposes. And to get everyone thinking about my approach to handicapping games. I plan on creating a separate page with these along with a separate page answering questions about the service. I am working on it and hope to get those finished sometime soon. It’s never ending when changing themes in WordPress:) But it keeps me busier of course.
We are almost at the end of conference play and will shortly be going into conference tournaments and then March Madness. This for me is the most exciting time for College Hoops. Years ago I went to a Final Four when it was in Atlanta Ga. That is when Al Maguire had led Marquette to the National Title! Not much is more exciting than going to a Final Four.
Enough storying telling for this morning:) We are only 25 min away from the start of a 100 day college hoop day.So I had better get back to work.
Good Luck Today
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