Saturday we had 3 plays and went 2-1. All 3 were overnights and all 3 were dogs.
Pitt +117 won 7-3 , Oakland +113 won 10-2 and Toronto +109 lost 2-3.
So far today I have sent out 3 plays.
I received an email last night asking whether all my plays are listed pitchers or are there some instances where I label the play’s action.
All plays without exception are listed pitchers. Pitching is such a strong factor in both the setting of the line and in handicapping the game that it would be very hard to come up with a method that ignores pitchers.
When I put out a play I list the pitchers or when there are a lot of games I mention listed pitchers.
I know I have been asked this several times but with the addition of the new screening filter on the games, there is a reduction in plays of about 20 to 30 %. The overnights, however, more than make up for the reduction.
Also, last season during the first half of the season we had a top to bottom swing of around 25 units. This year it’s only 11 units. I attribute that mostly to the additional filter.
It’s very important to try to reduce volatility from day to day. There is no way to do that completely but there are ways to accomplish it without reducing EV by much.
When you track your betting results it is always a good idea to also track your standard deviation. I did not without exception when I was playing poker full time. After several years it’s interesting what the standard deviation will tell you when comparing the different poker games.
Often times it is contrary to what you would think just off the top of your head.
For instance, limit Holdem has one of the higher standard deviations as opposed to Omaha 8 or better that has one of the lowest of all the poker games. I suspect however if you threw limit Badugi into the mix it would rocket to the top:)
What you want is to get a high earn with a low standard deviation. Omaha 8 is about as good as it gets for limit poker in that category. In sports betting each sport has a different standard deviation and EV.
But that discussion is for another day.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
