Its been an interesting year for sports betting. Except for college hoops, the remaining sports have been very solid this last year.
In the NFL for the 2018 regular season, we ended up +5.4 units. The 1 unit plays lagged behind the 1/2 unit sides and totals that produced +4.2 units.
+5.4 Units in the NFL is a solid regular season. To give you an idea we did this on 42 wagers which put the ROI at 7.77%. I will take it.
In College football, we are now at +6.9 units on 77 plays. That’s an 8.96% ROI.
Again a reasonable year for college football.
For football both NFL and College we gained 11.1 units.
In the NBA this season we are sitting at +5.1 UNITs. That’s with 108 plays, primarily because of the new 1/2 unit new wagers. That is a 4.72% ROI.
The one unit plays so far this season has been the standout in the NBA producing +5.8 Units on 10 plays!
In the NHL we are in the negative 6.05 units. The 1/2 unit sides in the NHL are the only subset so far that has been profitable gaining 2.31 units.
There is a lot of the season left in both the NBA and NHL and we can revisit them when the season is finished.
In MLB this year we ended up the regular season slightly on the + side and then lost about 4.5 units in postseason play.
Another long tedious year in MLB. But the good news for MLB is the overnight plays. These will be 1 unit plays next season. As most that have followed me know we started betting on the overnights in about the 3rd month of regular season.
In addition, they were 1/2 unit plays. From the beginning of the season at 1 unit these would have produced in excess of 20 units with very little drawdown. One thing, however, is that they tend not to be that productive the last month of regular season. So in 2018, I plan on not betting them.
In my view, these have the potential to turn MLB into a real profitable endeavor. As most of you know its been the one sport that has been the toughest to endure.
But with the overnights predicting the moves over 65% of the time, MLB has the potential to be a very good year in 2018.
Now that brings us to college hoops:(
From the time I started handicapping college hoops, they outperformed anything I have done the last 15 years. They took off from the very start both on totals and side.
However, there was a pattern that developed and that was we jumped to +20 to 30 units early but then about halfway through conference play things changed to where we dribbled back some of our gains.
This season, however, took a dramatic turn. Our solid 1 unit plays for the first month of the college hoops lost over 10 units. These had been the most solid performers of all. Then to make matters more interesting our once very reliable first part of the season turned into a steady drain. We stand now at -23.165 units in college hoops.
In the scheme of things, this is not outside the bell curve or even close to the outer limits of the bell curve. But it does not make it very pleasant.
We have been very spoiled the last 3 to 4 years in that it has been a steady upswing with the drawdowns few and far between. Most have been limited to 10 to 15 units.
I typically do not make changes during the regular season and leave that to the offseason. Variance what it is does not make it necessary to evaluate systems every day. Once a year is plenty. I plan on sticking with that, with the exception of adding a filter here and there. Nothing dramatic.
So that is the year in a nutshell.
College hoops the Disappointment and overnights in MLB a big surprise with substantial benefits in 2018.
I have not changed my routine in quite awhile, with the exception of generating more data in evaluating how everything is doing.
I am up at 3 to 4 in the morning getting ready for the days handicapping and the stock market during the week. Its a much different routine then my full-time poker playing routine:) I get up when many poker players are getting out of their seats ready to head home!
On the subscription front. As most of you know I have the 1-year option for 499.00. That saves you 89.00 off the full year. However, I have specials from time to time that erodes into those savings.
My specials are such that there is no systematic way of knowing beforehand what they will be and how much. Or if I am even going to have a special.
But if your concerned at all about the possibility that you will be paying the same as other subscribers or in some instance perhaps a bit more after the specials, please do not sign up for the 499.00 yearly rate.
I want everyone to know I appreciate your support and value all of you. I enjoy what I am doing, If I didn’t I would not be doing it. In addition, If I did not think I could produce value in the way of positive EV plays and/or instructional handicapping routines I would not be doing this either.
So let’s shoot for a very good 2018. And remember one of the secrets to being successful is finding balance in your life.
I am on skype for anyone that wishes to chat on any subject or email.
My username on Skype is riccja and the email I would prefer is [email protected]
I welcome all comments and suggestions.
RickJ’s Sports Plays