After a sluggish start college hoop totals have broken out to a 22-12 record in November. That’s a 64.7% win rate.
On Friday we had 11 one unit plays and went 6-5. College totals were what did it for us yesterday with 8 plays going 6-2. UCLA, Nevada, Washington, Virg tech, CS Fullerton and Illinois were all good with the unders while Air force and Portland lost on the unders.
In the NBA we went 0-1 with Dallas +13 getting blown out….was never close.
In the NHL we went 0-2 losing with Islanders +171 2-3 and Buffalo +174 1-3.
Today will be another busy day with all sports going. So far no plays have been sent out.
I had several interesting emails yesterday:
“Couple things, first off let me say I’m loving the college basketball unders. Nice work/congrats on the rally this week. On that topic, I had a thought I wanted to get your opinion on. Following these, I noticed I can generally tell at halftime whether or not it’s a winner. What do you think about betting the 1H unders in conjunction with the full game totals? Seems to me they would be equally solid if not better. Less variance than full game because of not having to deal with the free throw end game and/or overtime? Of course, smaller sample size of minutes likely counters that. I don’t know, just a thought…wondering if you had any insight into betting 1H lines.
Hope you had a great Thanksgiving, keep up the good work and continued good luck!”
My Response:
“I have had subscribers tell me that they do exactly what you are suggesting on all of my plays. I have not researched that as it’s a full-time job staying ahead of the books on full game wagers.
Also the little research I have done on half-time wagers indicates there are considerations that are not there in full game wagering. In addition the various models, variables, and public betting shifts as to their significance.
As to the college totals. It’s an anomaly that only exists in November. I am surprised how good it is but I uncovered it a few years ago. Last year we got off to a fast start on these and never looked back for the month. This year we were at around 5-5 and then took off.
I find it very interesting to see from year to year what continues to work well and what slows down. It makes handicapping an interesting endeavor aside for the extra cash it might bring in.”
ONE MORE:
“Hey Rick!
I’m trying to figure out your strategy on college football but guess I missed something. I have been following you for several years and felt I was getting close to your strategy. I thought for sure either Iowa, TCU, Missouri or Air Force would be plays or at least a bet or pass. I don’t expect you to break down each game but not sure what I missed.”
My Response:
“TCU was a play. I had sent it out the day of the game. The others while looking reasonable some of what I look at fails in previous seasons. Some things just stop working as people catch on and the books adjust.
Rarely do you find an edge that lasts for more than 2 to 3 years. There are other handicappers just like me scouring the data looking for edges that are not random.
In addition each year I use different filters on the games. Mostly to attempt to increase my ev on the games I pick.
You cannot handicap anymore and not be flexible in your thoughts. Many handicappers have computers working 24 hours a day sorting through mounds of data to attempt to get just .5% of an edge and then have the outs to get down 50,000 to 100,000 per game minimum.
I am sure you have heard of the betting syndicates that be the horses. They do the exotic bets and look for overlays. It made the news several years ago but there were several Asian groups that were doing this.
Its the same way with sports betting. That assures you that any edge you uncover will only have a short window.
Saying that it’s remarkable that there are any edges. But I have some that I have found over the years that have been very solid for a long long time.
I suspect at some point sports betting is going to go the way of 1 to 4 deck blackjack shoes. Now many casinos have continuous shuffle machines which takes away the card counting and card placement that so many professionals were adept at.
I could go on but this should give you an idea why perhaps I only had TCU as a play so far this weekend.”
Response #2
“Correction on TCU. I had bet the game, and also had put it in several contests. I do that before I put out plays as I want to wait and see how things develop on the game before releasing it.
As It turns out there were some late changes that changed my mind on the game. The reason I wager myself first and put in contest picks is that many times I do not have time to do that after releasing a game. So sometimes I make a wager or have a pick that changes by game time. But is a trade off on my time. Especially when you have 5 sports going at one time.”
A few housekeeping items for subscribers. If you have sent me your cell number and provider you should be receiving the backup SMS plays along with the twitter plays. All seems to be working with Verizon now.
The best way to do it is to use both. Opening up a twitter account is free and if you have unlimited text messaging than your fine on that end also.
Another thing is I have been putting numbers in front of the college hoop games. The number is the Nevada rotation so that that the game is easier to find if you’re using that. Its really a job to search for these games if you do not have something in place like the Nevada rotation. Also if there is any confusion about the team the Nevada rotation number clears it up.
The key is if you are getting these plays to have a procedure in place where you can get your wagers in in a short period of time. If it takes you 10 to 15 min to get your wagers in your going to be disappointed and upset. However, if you have a system in place that takes less than 5 min you will have no worries about missing out.
In addition, there are some games although not recently that shift minutes before game time. I usually send these out hoping that some will be able to get down. But It’s reasonable to expect some will not. Better to send them out and benefit some rather than nobody getting the plays. Although recently we have not had any of these.
One final thing is that things do not always go as planned. With as many plays as we are having and the number of games each day now you are going to make a mistake here and there. Just assume that is part of the business. It is very rare to find someone that never makes mistakes or gets confused. The trick is to take it in stride and brush it off. If you let it get to you this sports betting can get maddening!!!
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
