One game tonight in the NFL:
Betting is 50% with the line moving from -3.5 to -4.5-102. Models Slightly favor Phil. Variables clearly favor Green Bay and public betting is neutral. This game is about as clear a pass asyou can get with the betting split 50/50 on the game along with models and variables spit also. I am passing
Good luck tonight whichever side you take…Looks like a coin toss to me!
This sports betting is interesting if you’re a numbers and probabilities type. The ebb and flow of the various sports throughout the year is fascinating to me. Of course, it is much more interesting when you have a positive bias to your betting rather than getting crushed like most sports bettors do:)
Saturday and Sunday saw a successful two days with 10 one unit plays going 7-2-1. In the NFL we split winning with the Jets +7.5 and losing with Arizona +4. In college Football we went 2-0 winning with Michigan +5 and Boston College +3. In the NBA we pushed with Detroit +13 and in College hoop totals we went 4-1 winning with Iona, Dayton Nebraska and UCLA under and losing with Portland under.
November has turned into a great month thanks to College Hoops. But that should come as no surprise as the last several years November has been consistently solid. So solid that most of our totals are laughers. A rare thing in sports betting.
An email to share:
Essentially the email wanted to know if the 5 unit for football still applied as I had emailed my thoughts awhile back on the approach to take towards bet sizing various sports.
Historically I have always wagered more on football than the other sports. The reason being it has been the most successful for me to handicap over the years. The NFL used to be a virtual goldmine with College football not far behind it. I have always increased my bet size for football from the start.
But things have changed. Not only has the NFL lines gotten much sharper but my handicapping in the other sports has reached a point where the differences are not that great. One could argue now that there is no difference and changing your bet size depending on the sport is no longer justified.
That is the approach I have now decided to take. All sports now are the same size. So whatever your starting betting bankroll x 2 to 3 percent would be the amount to bet per game.
If you new to bet sizing use the 2% number. If you have been a consistent loser betting sports year in and year out use the 2%. If you’re a seasoned handicapper who has been successful betting sports go ahead and use 2.5 or 3%. But under no circumstances go over the 3% number. The chances of ruin increase geometrically over the 3% number. Just do not do it….It’s another one of my givens:)
Now on to answering the title of this post. After a great run, you do nothing different. You do not loosen or tighten your standards. You just keep doing what you have been doing. Playing positive EV picks and bet sizing according to what your strategy is.
After a very good run it is just human nature to loosen up a bit. Bet marginal games. Increase bet sizing beyond your strategy. And after all we are all human so these tendencies will crop up without a doubt.
Your goal is to 1. Recognize these tendencies for what they are 2. Learn how to deal with it.
Most bettors never get past goal #1 let alone both. But both are essential to becoming a winning sports bettor. If you cannot devote yourself to learning both do not even begin to start sports betting let alone this service. It is not for you!!!
If you’re interested in learning how to become a successful sports bettor than consider signing on with us. The records I post are 100% transparent. I post all plays and results on a spreadsheet in addition to updating the records page daily. Those of you that have searched far and wide for a service that is 100% transparent, provides teaching , plays that historically have had positive EVs , and finally is priced so low that you will wonder why one would even bother doing it then this is for you.
Take a look at the PayPal menu and pick the subscription option of your choice. All have a 3-day free trial.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks