Friday we had 3 plays going 3-0.
Our 1 unit play on Phil +110 won 10-3. We also had a 1/2 unit play on the Mets +143 win 7-5. And finally an overnight on Miami -106 winning 7-4.
Today so far 2 plays have been sent out.
One item of interest is the ability of these overnights to predict the movement of the line with an uncanny ability.
Now I would have thought as the season progressed this predictability would have diminished a bit. However, so far it is actually increasing. July has shown that the predictions in line movement are a tad over 80%! July has been the best month so far as most months are closer to 70%.
Now let’s take a look at the political odds. That is an entertaining way to start the day:)
We had three propositions closing in 2 days. Wray being confirmed by 7/31 is now 15 to 1 against. I recommended the wager when you could get 4 to 1.
Then we had first to leave, Priebus or Sessions. The odds were 2 to 1 Priebus I suggested that was a bit low. I did not realize how low as the very next day Priebus is gone!
Finally was the ACA. Back when I first discussed it you could have gotten +odds. Now, it’s pretty much dead in the water with the odds of passage occurring before August 5th at 50 to 1 against.
Looking over the odds this morning for new positive EV situations the best to me at this point is:
Flake winning the AZ GOP primary is 5 to 2 in favor. Take the odds here. To me, it looks like even money at best.
McCaskill being reelected is 6 to 5 in favor. Take the odds here as my guess is at least 2 to 1 against.
Which party controls the house after midterms is even money. Take the Republican side, my guess should be at least 2 to 1 in favor of Republicans.
New odds and new propositions get set daily. One caveat is that the liquidy on many of these is very low.
One thing that comes to mind is that the best wagers, depending on the line, will be to wager against the House and Senate Republican Nevertrumpers in the primaries.
Now, as I said it depends on the line, but in most cases, you will get 3 to 1 at the least. The wager will be based on the backlash of the populace of their candidate no supporting Trump.
Despite Trump’s polling, the people that voted for him are staying solidly behind him. In addition, I doubt the polling has improved much since the elections. Myself, when I evaluate the polling I add at a minimum 10 points to Trump’s approval rating. In addition, I watch Rasmusson as they appear to be the closest to being accurate.
These EV situations in no way reflect my personal opinions as to what I wish to happen. As I have said I am an independent who for the most part do not let my personal opinions get in the way of my reasonably good judgment:)
In addition, I always monitor my results in this sphere, to see if perhaps there is a delusional index to my predictions. In something as chaotic as U.S. politics there is always that chance. So far, however, my observations have been spot on.
NFL preseason begins in a few days. I am going to put together a special similar to what I did last season for the Pro and College football season.
I will post it today or tomorrow.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks