On Tuesday we had 3 plays and went 3-0.
We had a 1 unit play on Pitt -115 winning 5-2 and two overnight 1/2 unit plays with the Dodgers -140 winning 7-5 and Arizona -110 winning 7-6.
So a +2.0 unit day and a nice 6-0 run going on MLB Sides.
So far today I have sent out 2 overnight plays.
By way of housekeeping, the pitt play started out as an overnight and became a 1 unit play during the day. I treated it as a 1 unit play and averaged the line. I did not count it as an overnight play. That it looks to me is the best way to handle it. The end result is the same, but it allows more accurate records. I am still keeping track of the Big Move game category so that will still reflect the game.
I have had a few emails this morning that I feel are instructive.
Some of these lines move so much over night is there a point where we should be taking back the other side and getting guaranteed money? ”
“Depends on what your preference is regarding risk. Remember whenever you do that you’re giving up EV as opposed to locking in a gain. In other words, your paying say 5% to reduce your risk. Pretty expensive insurance!”
If an overnight game line moves too far away the first day and comes back the next day a couple hours before game time, is it okay to bet?
For example, Dbacks moved from -110 to -120 and now is back at -104. If we missed the initial -110, is it still +EV to bet the -104? Or has something within the variables changed and the play is no longer profitable in the long run?”
“Yes…that is the way to bet them if you miss out originally
The better the line the better they are as they are solely placed on value per models”
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks