Sunday we had 5 plays and went 3-2.
Our 1 unit plays split with Oakland +186 winning 3-2 and San Diego -106 losing 1-4.
Overnights went 3-2 with Boston even winning 5-1 and Milwaukee +117 winning 8-4. We lost with KC under +104 7-4.
Today so far I have sent out 2 plays.
On the political odds front here are the odds and my predictions from earlier:
ODDS My prediction
Moore over Strange
7 to 3 4 to 1
Dems to win white house in 2020
5 to 4 Repub 2 to 1
Flake to win primary
6 to 4 5 to 1 against
Ryan to win primary
7.5 to 1 3 to 1
Kasich to run in 2020
even money 5 to 2 in favor
Control of house 2018
republicans 11 to 10 3 to 1
Moore is up to 7.5 to 2
That has been the only change so since I posted yesterday.
I am going on the assumption that the people that will benefit from the Republicans ineptitude in the house and senate will be nonestablishment Republicans rather than the Dems.
I base that on several factors:
1. Both parties it seems are doing their best to alienate themselves with Middle America.
2. The blame for the most part despite what the mainstream media portrays it as is the establishment Republicans. I doubt they will be able to overcome the healthcare debacle. It could not be any worse.
3. The Dems, on the other hand, have failed to take advantage of this and have elected to satisfy their far left base rather than the moderates in the party. This is in part what cost them in 2016 and rather than move to the center they have moved further to the left.
4. Middle America has no tolerance for the far left or far right. And in particular right now the establishment politicians.
Now if my assumptions are wrong, my predictions will be off. But so far I have nailed it pretty close.
Moore was a 2 to 1 dog when I said they had the wrong favorite. And now Moore is a 3.5 to 1 favorite.
The monkey wrench in all of this is Bannon being fired. The way it is looking he is going to be hostile to Trump or at least not do him any favors.
So it remains to be seen what effect that will have and I am watching with interest. So far Trump’s polling has gone up since Charleston. Albeit it is still low at 42% on Rasmusson. But when you compare it with the other politicians he doubles many of them.
The dynamics of political betting is very challenging. I keep my personal ideas out of the equation and look at things based upon as objective an analysis as I can make.
Now often times the polling will not match up with my observations. But as we saw in 2016 much of the polling is oversampled intentionally. The idea that Clinton was a 99% favorite to win the day of the election shows you just how far off the polling was.
I assure you it was not because of statistical error:)
There you have it for today. I will add to these as I see some that I feel have value.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks