The House circus continues, and non-farm payrolls beats by 70k. How will the markets react today? My thoughts

Another sell off on Wednesday on a day that had a reasonable probability of an up day. Typically days after bearish engulfing patterns tend to be positive.

Today we wake up to what is setting up to be a gap up in the markets of about 1/3% except for the Nasdaq which is positive over 1/2%. TLT is off around 1/5 %. Everything else is hovering around the even mark.

This to me looks like a positive pre-market, I would not be inclined to try any gap fill trades today.

There is the non-farm payroll report coming out in 15 min. And a lot of Fed Speak today. In reality, you could call it murders row.

I would expect some volatility with the Fed Speak, in essence reaffirming that rate cuts are not in the cards.

On the political front, the House has become a full three ring circus. They could actually take their show on the road, and it would make for a good traveling show comedy act.

The problem the House as right now is the Dems for the first time in a long time have no control over the DOJ. Also, the courts are very iffy for them at this point. And even the cowards in the Senate cannot get too far out of line with 2020 approaching. An angry base is the best way to keep Republican establishment types in line facing reelection. A perfect example is Graham:)

As a well known gambler I am typically asked questions from time to time as to the odds of particular events. One of the abilities I have developed over the years is quantifying something that is not easily quantifiable.

Not that I am always right. But more often than not I get it right. And when your betting if you can hit 55% you get all the money in the long run.

A day ago I received the following email from a long time subscriber to my sports handicapping service:

” I love your insights into US politics and potential political wagers. I was just looking at the odds on Predict-ic for Democratic Presidential nominee and was wondering if you think there’s any value there and how you would cap the race at this point in time. “

My Response: “

I do not think there is any value yet. Although the best bet right now is the Republicans to take the presidency in 2020. I think you can get around 6 to 4.

When the matchups come out for 2020 on the republican side, I would fade every establishment republican that voted against the wall, and then every establishment republican that has opposed Trump. The best of course would be the votes against the wall. Then if you want to get adventurous just vote against every establishment republican that is getting a strong primary challenge by a MAGA candidate.

All will most likely be big dogs. And when the smoke clears I think you will have a nice profit.”

This is how I view things right now. As the Democrat field gets cut down, and we get closer to 2020 I will be more able to evaluate things. With the Dems it is not really who is going to win primaries but who the party wants in. At this point its not really clear to me.

I always get emails like this from time to time, so I welcome them, as I have a passion for handicapping. Not only sporting events but also anything that you might be able to make a price on.

With the market getting oversold yesterday I took a position in INTC. I sent this out to my sports handicapping subscribers that elected to take my stock picks. Its a free add on to my service and sent out only via Viber.

Non-farm payroll numbers just came out and expectations were 190K and the number was 263K. That is quite a beat:) So far the market’s reaction has been positive. It’s usually best to wait about 15 min to see what the real reaction is.

Unless the Fed Speak comes up with a big surprise today, it would not surprise me to see the market pull out of this small dip and continue to the upside. It looks like my buy of INTC will be an easy trade. At least for now:)

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:) In addition, I share all my short term swing trades to subscribers.

Good Luck Today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

Skype: Ricca

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