And down we go this morning. The markets are off between .6% DIA to -1.5% QQQ 30 min before the open.
TLT is +1/5% Vix.x is -9%. Oil is about unchanged.
Chances are reasonable for a trend down day today, however, TLT is not positive enough to give this a high probability. Usually you see TLT plus about 1/2% to consider a trend day down. But Vix.x is in an area that would make it a reasonable call.
Friday the QQQ/SPY weekly signal signaled an exit. Last time this happened was in early Sept of last year, and the drop was about 500 SP points!
So we have fun up to break the highs and now we are moving down. Its too early to predict how far this down move takes us, but since it is headline driven, the headlines right now are dismal.
On the home front:
Its just keeps getting worse if that is possible. As an example The White House just negotiated a reasonable change in NAFTA, creating a win win for all sides. But the political climate what it is, I do not seeing having a chance in the house or the Senate.
I do not think they are going to give Trump a win before 2020.
Same is true with the White House immigration plan. DOA in Congress.
Russia Russia Russia is now Obstruction Obstruction Obstruction. The house is devoting all its time at this point in ruining this presidency. Nothing else is being considered.
The news media shows no signs of letting up. To the contrary many at Fox news is joining in as merely a propaganda machine. Cable news is a thing of the past if you are looking for news. If you want political commentary that supports your liberal views, you have plenty of it:)
But if you want honest and ethical investigative reporting , perhaps there is a handful of journalists that fit that bill. But on the bright side , they are the best this country has seen.
If anyone has an interest, send me an email , and I will share my list with you. There is no reason to stay in the dark, unless you wish it. If you are a trader , then its essential to know what is going on.
On the geopolitical front, things are not much better. Things are heating up in the Mideast, China has cut off all trade talks, the window has closed for now on getting rid of Madura, with the end result being Iran and Russia in our Southern Hemisphere.
Turkey is slowing aligning with Russia. The irony is they are a member of NATO whose purpose was to protect the NATO countries from Russian aggression. I expect Turkey to be a hot spot very soon.
Then you have the UK doing deals with China, and the EU reluctant to back the U.S. on Iran.
So the bottom line is, everything is in chaos.
So putting this all together, I expect more volatility. Gut wrenching volatility. Which means its time to reduce your trading size , until things quiet down.
I will still be looking for mean reversion trades and short term swing trades. But, I am tightening up everything a bit right now. At least until we get the QQQ/SPY signal to go long.
On wedn, we have the Fed Min, but I suspect no help from that. The bottom line is to be careful. Do not get stubborn. Honor your stops.
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription I sent out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice valued added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:) In addition, I share all my short term swing trades to subscribers.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks