These large gap ups are very difficult to day trade, especially to the long side. We saw a perfect example yesterday(Monday).
My approach is to avoid day trading these types of gaps. Rarely do you get a continuation move off of a 300 pt gap in the dow:)
This morning the market is off slightly, TLT +.39% , Oil -1.37%. These two alone would indicate to me either a range day or a dip early. On the other side of the coin, TLT seems to have lost its negative correlation for the time being. In addition, this market has been strong. It’s very hard to predict a serious fall.
I mentioned yesterday , the Nasdaq/SPY weekly trigger. Here is a picture of where it stands now:
On thing to note is this will not officially trigger until the close on Friday. If that happens we will have a nice tailwind for the markets, at least historically.
On the geo political front not much has changed overnight. Same is true for the political climate in the U.S.
There is a lot of talk of a rate cut coming soon. Myself, I do not see it. The economy is strong, interest rates still low, unemployment at record levels. The only argument for it is getting ahead of problems with the EU and China economy relating to the Iran fallout. Its a complicated scenerio, but the possibility is some economic consequences in not going along with the U.S. on Iran.
In the past I have mentioned a trade looking to short corporations that delve into the SWJ arena. We have seen hits to Dicks sporting goods, Starbucks and others shortly after they get active.
The number of CEOs that are jumping into the fray is increasing. Its becoming so commonplace that this trade is getting complicated. But I still think if you do your research there is money to be made there. Perhaps in the next few weeks I will post a list of companies that I believe fall into that area and my thoughts on their vulnerability to boycotts.
As an aside it mystifies me how corporations , who are supposed to be maximizing profits, risk losing business by alienating a large percentage of the population. Its not logical.
For today I will be looking for some swings but will tighten up my parameters.
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I sent out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks