Markets, Ratcliffe confirmation odds, Trump 2nd term odds. My thoughts this morning

Markets, Ratcliffe confirmation odds, Trump 2nd term odds. My thoughts this morning

As we approach the end of the month, the markets are hovering around the even mark this morning. Technically the market is neither overbought or oversold in the short term.

An hour before the open TLT is +1/4% @CL unchanged Vix.x +4%. This is a negative premarket bias. There is a lot of new out this week most of which is market moving.

Trade talks continue with China today, Fed meets tomorrow and announces its decision on rates. Most are expecting a rate cut on Wednesday. I am not that convinced Powell is going to shift gears. But I am in the minority. If he does not cut the market will head lower, at least for a few days.

Friday is the July jobs report. And we are knee-deep into earnings season:) A lot to consider if your trying to correlate you trading with the news.

On the news front, there is some excellent news. Congress is gone for six weeks:) That is always good news these days. And while Congress is away the White is in full attack mode. Coats is out, Ratcliffe is in. I have some doubts whether Ratcliffe can get 50 votes in the Senate.

Cynic that I am, I doubt the establishment republicans like the idea of an aggressive former US prosecutor who is aligned with Trump as head of the NIA. As I mull it over, I do not see 50 votes. If I had to put out a line, it would be 2 to 1 against him being confirmed in the Senate.

Declassification is coming and Coats was holding it up. Ratcliffe is more aligned with transparency and getting to the bottom of how this Russia hoax got started. Considering that many of the establishment Republicans were in on this hoax from the start, they are not going to cut their own throat and let Ratcliffe in at the NIA.

However, Trump will appoint an acting NIA director that will most likely have most of the work done by the time the confirmation battle is over. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

On the geopolitical front, it’s becoming more clear that Turkey is aligning itself with Russia and Iran. Which leads to the question of why they are in NATO. Geopolitics right now is a mess. Trump inherited an almost impossible world to maneuver in. And it does not help that the previous administration is behind the scenes undermining him abroad.

And in reality, its not even behind the scenes. They do not try to hide it. The good news is more Trump-friendly leaders are getting elected in many countries. But it is going to require a 2nd term for Trump to be able to take advantage of this fully.

Despite the odds being about 55/45 in favor of the Dems in 2020 for the Presidency, I give Trump at least a 2 to 1 favorite for a 2nd term. This is good for the stock market and the country. Forget what the media and the politicians are spinning. The country has never looked this good for a long time.

I could go on and on as politics and geopolitics have become one of my top interests at this point in my life. It’s fascinating. I have never had the time to get up on it, as being a trial attorney, businessman, and then full-time poker player had consumed me.

But now, I have the time, and it fits right into my sports handicapping and investing routine.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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