The markets look like they were in recovery mode on Wedn +260 pts, then in the scan of 30 min the markets found themselves -250 pts:)
This is a news-driven market. At any time news can hit to cause the type of reaction we saw yesterday.
I was almost stopped out on my AUY position and then ended up about 8% for the day on the ETF. Amazing.
This morning TLT is +.6%, Indexes are off around 1/2%, @CL is +2.5% and Vix.x is up 1%. To me, this is a negative premarket but not overly so.
Also, the jobs report is out in 20 min. Watch to see the market’s reaction to the news. Especially watch to see if the market reacts contrary to whether the news is good or bad. That will be a tip on how things are going to go today.
I do not have many positions on at the moment. I did start a 1/4 position in SPY at the close yesterday. I am slowly going to leg into this mean reversion trade.
Not much has changed on the political front. On the geopolitical front things just keep heating up. India and Pakistan are red hot, Russia and China are getting closer and closer, China is reacting to the new tariffs, and then we have Iran.
One of the problems is there is no consensus among the Western countries. It’s almost a mirror of the political climate in the U.S. To make it worse Obama and company are still active talking to foreign leaders.
Americans do not know it but there are serious problems in the U.S. and they have nothing to do with Trump. Comey just got a pass on a slam dunk criminal case, and Flynn still is on a gag order and facing charges.
If there is no accountability for the Russia Hoax, unmasking and illegal spying it may well be the breaking point for Americans. Most are expecting accountability.
Myself, I do not expect any miracles. If history is a guide, there will be no accountability and everyone will get a pass. There are signs that this time it will be different, but I am skeptical. Giving Comey a pass on leaking is not a good sign for the equal application of justice in the U.S.
As to the markets, all this will do is create more uncertainty. Sooner or later this rubber band of lawlessness will snap. The only question is what will America look like afterward. I view it as a tossup which was things go. The corruption has gone on too long and is so widespread, it’s going to be difficult to tame.
The bottom line is, as always, do not get stubborn in these markets. A slow methodical systems approach, with appropriate position sizing, is the only way to go. If you do not know what your edge is, you do not have one:)
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.
Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks