The big number this morning is that the Ten Year Note is +1.24%. This has been quite a bond rally and the way it is looking we are going to take out the highs from July of 2016. I doubt anyone saw this coming. That means mortgage rates are headed much lower.
But it also is an indicator of a slowdown. Typically the bond markets are fairly good predictors of what is to come. The global mess is no doubt contributing to this substantially. Mneuchin just declared China a currency manipulator.
This has some serious consequences for China at a time when they cannot afford it. They have already reacted by raising their currency to try to reverse this designation.
Tariffs are one thing, but to label a country officially as a currency manipulator is another. That is hardball. Which means there is no sign of Trump backing off the course he has gone done with China.
There are individuals on both sides of the issue, but, when you get down to it most of the whining is politically motivated. The best of the experts are almost unanimous that this is the proper course, and that it is long past due. China has run rampant in the U.S. on many different levels.
The problem is this is going to bring some pain. Americans, for the most part, are not used to pain, as they have been very lucky to not have had to experience what many other countries have experienced in the past. So how they react will be unknown.
The risk is that in 2020 they will make the mistake of turning to the Democrat Socialist party for the answer. Few understand the implications of how big a mistake that will be. However, if it happens, within a few years, even the most liberal of Democrats will get reality heading them square in the head.
As an omnipresent third person looking down, it is fascinating to watch the human drama unfold in the U.S., but as a U.S. lifelong citizen, it saddens me to see the U.S. so close to this shift in direction.
But what my feeling is is irrelevant:) But as a trader, it will have monumental implications. The bull market will end abruptly, unemployment will rise, jobs will again move to other countries, and our oil dependency which we are rid of will again be in place on other countries. And that is for starters. It will not be pretty. There will be a monetary opportunity in all of this. And I will apprise you if we get to that point.
I planned on talking a bit about gun control and the White Supremecy Ruse this morning. But I will save that for another day.
I will just point out that this hysteria we are seeing is all politically motivated. Its ginned up by the left and the media. We started with 2 years of Russia, Russia, Russia, to Racist Racist Racist and now White Supremecy. It is one hysteria to another for the left in an effort to scare Americans into voting for them. And there is a cost to this strategy, we are seeing the cost in terms of lives lost. And it’s just going to get worse. So prepare yourself mentally for it.
Again, it is absolutely essential to find some honest news brokers to get your perspective from. The media is a thing of the past for news and opinion. Independent journalists who have no political agenda are the ones to go with. It’s essential for your sanity and also your trading.
As I have been typing this the markets have gone from around even to -1% to what I would expect with Bonds +over 1%. Vix.x is +9.67% and @CL is -2%. A very negative premarket 30 min before the opening. I would not be looking for gap fills this morning:) Gap continuation trades would be what I would be trading if you have a method for that trade.
We are in the last month of baseball for my regular season overnight plays. It’s been a boring season, however, August has picked up substantially to where we have a nice gain heading into the last 3 weeks.
And then it’s the NFL and College Football:) If you have an interest, watch for the special I will be putting out very soon for the football season.
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.
Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks