The gap-fill was a solid trade yesterday but depending where you put it on you might have had a lot of pain before the market reversed:) There are some pretty good methods for managing gap fills, and most include a reentry if you get stopped out. So if you made the trade and had a solid method behind it, you could have made some money yesterday.
Myself, I got stopped out of most of my swing trades, many with a profit as I had already sold a 1/2 position on a runup.
At the close Tuesday, I got one of my most reliable buy signals. But since this week tends to be the weakest of the year, and the news cycle is over the top today. I expect a lot of volatility today. So I am going to get greedy and try for a lower mean reversion entry. That is usually a mistake:) But, so be it.
This morning the markets are pretty tame waiting for the news cycle to hit. They are in the red but not by much. TLT is the same. @CL is taking a hit -1.75% and Vix.x is -1.88%. Overall, a neutral to negative premarket, but the driving factor will be the news cycle relating to the new hysteria.
It’s always something new. When Russia Russia Russia doesn’t work, its Obstruction Obstruction Obstruction. And when that doesn’t work now its Ukraine Ukraine Ukraine. What they all have in common is there is an anonymous leak to the press, the press embellishes it, and the politicians and the press use their own story to add validity to it. In other words, as Pelosi put it ” The wrap-up smear”.
They did it against Kavanaugh and other candidates, its a part of the arsenal now. The new thing now is the Senate has fallen for it. It matters not that Trump is the reason the Republicans control the Senate. I matter not that he personally campaigned for many in the Senate saving their jobs. But based upon an anonymous leaker, they have initiated an investigation thus causing Trump to release a Transcript of a conversation with a foreign leader.
In other words they have created de facto red flag laws for the President of the U.S. where any Tom Dick or Harry can complain and all communications with foreign leaders have to be disclosed. Want to see Bush’s communications preceding the Iraq war? Or Obama’s communications before the Iran deal. No problem, just get an anonymous source, put the “whistleblower label on them, leak to the press and voila.
Except for one thing, the press only takes leads against the party they are against. And the politicians only investigate people that are not members of the establishment. See how that goes.
Well, the saga will continue today. The markets will most likely be wild. That is the environment we are in now and will be in for a while. It’s not the time to get stubborn in the markets. They are very unforgiving. Unlike the poker tables, where the game breaks up, the markets go 24/7 now so if you have a proclivity for tilting, there is no automatic save.
I made an interesting political wager a week ago. Essentially it was who would be PM of Israel on 11/30 and the 2nd wager 12/31. Netanyahu was getting about 3 to 1 against him being PM on those dates. So I went with Netanyahu and took the 3 to 1 down to 2 to 1. On predict-it, the betting markets tend to be thin on most wagers so you have to move the odds a bit to get any real money down.
Myself, I had put the odds at 3 to 1 he will still be there. So If I was anywhere near accurate I had a nice positive EV wager. I have about a 50% equity in my position right now as the line has moved my way substantially. I am going to hold it until the end as the way it is looking its almost a cinch:)
Enough ranting for this morning:) I have the markets opening in about 30 min and more football to handicap for this weekend.
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
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Good Luck Today
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