Season to date 11-4 in College Football, Westgate NFL Supercontest picks, Westgate Top and Bottom 5 posted.

Season to date 11-4 in College Football, Westgate NFL Supercontest picks, Westgate Top and Bottom 5 posted.

We are heading into week 4 of the NFL with yet another nice week going. A 3-1 College football weekend brings me to 11-4 season to date in college football.

This weekend my plays were: Arizona St +4.5 ( 24-17) USC +11.5 ( 14-28)  Arkansas St +7 (50-43)  and Hawaii +2.5 (54-3). So 3-1 with all four wins dogs winning the game outright. That is what I call a solid day:)

11-4 for the season is a blistering 73.3% win rate with an ROI of 43%!!!

In the NFL last week our plays went 1-1  New Orleans +4 won 33-27 and Cleveland +3.5 Lost 13-20. That brings the NFL Season to Date at 3-3-1.

In the Westgate NFL SuperContest, I went 3-2 again last week bringing my record to 8-7. My picks this week in the order I liked them at the time:

Cleveland +6.5

Tenn +4

Buffalo +7

Arizona +5.5

New Orleans +2.5

Usually, I have several choices when it gets down to pick #5 but this week it there was nothing else I considered.

So far I have sent out two plays to subscribers. It could be any one of the above 5 depending on the line when I sent out the play. So do not assume its the first two picks.

The Westgate Top 5 is off to a quick start. Historically they are at about 40% right now, but they had a 4-1 week, bringing their record after 3 weeks to 15-5.

The Top 5 this week is:

KC

NE

Minn

Dal

NO

I am fading Dallas and with them on NO.

The bottom 5 this week is:

Chargers

Phil

Det

Cin

GB

I am not on any of the bottom 5 this week.

I received another email the other day that I thought might be instructive:

“Rick,
You “seem” to be a fan of xxxxxx?.
xxxx and xxxxx really aren’t very good this year, but, I’ll trust your judgment.”
My response:
“Actually I am not a fan of any team. I do not even notice from one
week
to the next. Its all in your imagination. You do not think the value
in
the NFL is betting on the good teams, do you?”
The point of all this is that the value is typically not on the kick-ass teams. It’s the teams that look pathetic. Your not wagering on who is going to win the game. You are wagering against a betting line. The books know who the public is going to take before they put out the lines. So, typically the pad the line so not only do they get the 5% from the bettors, but they also get a bonus.
Now the environment has changed a bit now that more and more “sharp bettors” have entered into sports betting. The NFL say about six years ago was made up of primarily the public, with “sharp bettors” cleaning up. But know the books have to be careful with the lines, and the “sharps” have enough weight to move the lines contrary to where the public is. You see that in many games.
So what were easy pickings, Is now still reasonable, but you have to do a bit of handicapping also. Years ago I used to laugh when a line came out that looked like a cinch for the public. But now, it’s not quite that easy now. I can honestly say the NFL years ago used to be what poker players call “the nuts”:)

It’s still not too late to join us as we are in the beginning stages of the NFL and College football. All subscriptions have a 3-day free trial. Just go to the PayPal drop-down menu on this site and choose the monthly option. Hope to see you join us!

Good Luck Today:)

RickJ

http://rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype: riccja

 

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NFL Last two years: 
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