Do the markets bounce here, USMCA, Whistleblower and impeachment odds. My thoughts for a Thursday morning.

Do the markets bounce here, USMCA, Whistleblower and impeachment odds. My thoughts for a Thursday morning.

As anticipated the markets are taking a nosedive as a result of the House impeachment efforts. They have finally gotten concerned with the havoc the House is causing on the country. Not only is it affecting trade (by not passing usmca) but it is affecting national security with the hoax on the Ukraine fiasco set up by Schiff.

So down we go.

This morning about 30 min before the open the indexes are unchanged, TLT is +.40% @CL is -.30% and VIX.X is -2.48 %.

This to me is neutral to slightly positive premarket bias. I expect a sharp bounce soon for a number of reasons.

  1. The Ukraine hoax is unraveling at light speed.
  2. I always watch the odds and they are unchanged at 3 to 1 against removal from office. In addition, impeachment odds are staying a steady 2 to 1 the house impeaches. It’s hard to imagine swing state Dems are going to drop on the sword when push comes to shove. But, the pressure is intense, and make no mistake it is going to cost them in 2020. I plan on fading every one of them once the odds are released.
  3. Graham is 100% in Trump’s corner. He is a bellwether as he goes the way the wind blows. If he turns on Trump that means there may be problems in the Senate.
  4. Trump’s money-raising is breaking records over this. Small donations are coming in at record levels, with record new donors. The crowds at his rallies just keep getting bigger and bigger.
  5.  Finally, the IG report will be out soon, Durham is interviewing Brennan. They are serious. Heads are going to roll, and my guess is soon. They took a pass on minor violations and are looking for the big crimes is my guess.
  6.  The market is extremely oversold right now. It has overreacted to the news.
  7. And before I forget, Trump’s approval rating keeps rising:)

I would not be surprised to see a bounce starting today.

I put in several trades toward the close yesterday. I bought GDX and also bought QQQ in after hours. These are not medium-term swings, but short term swings.

The key take away for me the last day or two is Schiff being exposed again as a liar on national TV. The idea that he denied any contact with the “whistleblower” and then the news came out that he did indeed have contact with the “whistleblower” prior to them going to report it officially is all you need to know about this hoax.

Not only does it again expose Schiff as a liar and a hoaxster, but also refutes the claim that this person is a “whistleblower” under any definition of the word. The coordinated with the Dems before making their complaint. That means they have should have 0 protection.

Well, let’s see if we get the bounce I am expecting. They do not always come as you expect, but the EV is very high on this trade.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

 

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