The Markets are slightly green this morning after yesterday’s wild ride. TLT is +.38%, @CL is +1.05% and VIX.X is -.73%
That is reasonably positive this morning. The upside has some potential today for a follow-through.
I am long QQQ at 183.73 and long GDX at 27.30. So far no exit, however, a follow-through day to the upside on QQQ will almost certainly signal an exit for me.
Position sizing is critical in these trades. Yesterday was a good example of QQQ. The swing yesterday was almost 200 pts! A report came out early that tanked the market about 100 pts and then voila, back up we went. If you were overextended you could not have stood the swing. Myself, I just watched with interest:)
As I predicted the flood gates are now open for fake whistleblower complaints. The rule change allowing hearsay has made whistleblowers obsolete. And has now created another tool for the left and the fake media to use. This should never have happened, and when it did happen the doors should have been slammed shut on it immediately.
But, Republicans in the only way they know how, let it slide. The Senate intelligence committee should have been all over this. Subpoenas should have been issued within days, the ICIG should have been put under oath and the entire process should have been exposed. There should have been requests for criminal prosecution sent to the DOJ within a week.
This is serious stuff. It threatens to shut down the government completely. Now I know many establishment republicans do not like Trump, for a number of reasons. The biggest being he is cutting off their big inflow of money from special interests. But if they think for a second this is not going to come back and bit them they are wrong. This will now be used against every Republican candidate running for office in the country. It’s bad enough these fake sexual 30-year allegations are rolled out like candy, but now we are reaching a different level.
Tucker said it best in the title of his book about Congress ” Ship of fools”.
I always like to look at the odds each morning to get a sense of reality that you do not get from the news. It’s far from perfect as there are many good overlays in political betting.
Impeachment by end of this year: 52 to 48 against. Impeached first term 71 to 29 in favor Convicted by the Senate his first term 81 to 19 against.
That is the closest to the reality you will get, forget all the spin. If I were betting these, I would be staying away from the impeachment bet as the Dems are on full self destruct. On the Conviction even at 4 to 1, I would lay the 4 to 1. I put the odds at closer to 10 to 1 if not higher. Just 2 days ago it was 3 to 1.
I had to laugh when I saw Brennan express dismay that Durham wanted to talk to him. Reality will be sinking in fast for the people that engineered this Russia hoax. Durham is the guy you bring in when you are serious. This means Barr is serious and that is bad news for all involved in this scheme.
For the markets, this means more volatility. As the vise starts closing the rats will get more and more desperate. and nothing is off the table now for them. As news hits, much of it fake, it will roil the markets. So be aware of the risks right now. We are in uncharted territory. There will be an opportunity as the market always overreacts. But it’s the timing that is the issue.
We are approaching the best months of the year soon. But with the political turmoil, I would not be that enthusiastic to get fully invested, as I usually do that time of year. I am going to take a short term swing approach and take it a day at a time:)
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Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks