The markets are slightly lower this morning after a strong weekend rebound. TLT is -.53% @CL is +1.25% and Vix.x is +6.10%
That to me is a negative bias unless the Vix.x starts heading back to 0. Its an hour before the open so I would keep a watch on that number.
As a general rule positive in @CL and negative in TLT is a positive indicator for how the day is going to go. But as far as I am concerned Vix.x overrides the two as there is not always a correlation as to the first two.
I exited my long QQQ on Friday for a nice swing gain. And now have only a position in GDX with a nice gain. These are system trades, well backtested, and I just wait for an exit signal per my software. Not much judgment involved. Although I do watch the political climate before taking these signals.
Two other things I like to look at :
- the odds of impeachment and removal from office. This is an indicator for me how serious things are. I assure you, you will learn nothing from the media. It’s all propaganda and spin now. Even Fox has become unreliable except for several commentators. The best of Fox by a mile is Catherine Herridge. She is what journalism used to be. All facts, little commentary, and all 100% accurate. She is the best there is for traditional journalism these days on Cable.
The odds this morning are 51/49 that he will be impeached by the end of the year, 70/30 that he will be impeached by the end of his term, 73/27 that he will complete his term and 76/24 that he will be the Republican nominee for 2024.
I fully expect impeachment. I do not expect removal, although I think there will be a bit more drama in the Senate then what people are expecting. And I expect Trump to be the 2024 Nominee.
Also, if they happen to turn on Trump, get short the markets. This market will take a nosedive like none you have ever witnessed before. What that will mean in my opinion, is the base will leave the Republican party in droves. They will not accept a betrayal of that magnitude. Trump has something like 95% of the base. And they will turn on the Republican party. You can bet on it.
But right now, it looks like drama with little chance of removal. Watch the odds and not the news. The media are making it up as they go at this point. It’s useless for all intents and purposes.
A potential market mover this week talks with China’s resume today on trade. There is some optimism, but there is alway optimism:) I am a bit skeptical as I think China may be evaluating whether Trump will be removed. If he is, China is back in business again.
The USMCA is dead in the water as I see it. The Dems are not going to give Trump any kind of win. After all what kind of resistance fighters would they be if they did that:)
They are putting all their eggs into the impeachment basket. And it’s likely to cost them the House. The odds right now of the Dems keeping the House are 76/28 in favor. Taking the almost 3 to 1 has to have value at this point. A better wager would be to fade every Dem that won in districts that Trump carried. They are toast at this point. It matters not at this point how they vote. My guess is 80% will be beaten. Just fade everyone of them, most likely getting odds and count your money at the end of 2020. I plan on doing just that.
The bottom line is to expect more volatility in the markets. We have the IG report out in 2 weeks or less. Durham and Barr in high gear. The intelligence agencies changing the rules to allow hearsay now for whistleblowers. And of course Schiff at the helm to steer things. It will be pure chaos with the media in 24/7 propaganda mode.
They say that look at the 60s and how bad it was then. I can tell you, the 60s was nothing compared to what we are seeing now.
Until things settle down domestically, I do not plan on taking any serious positions in the markets on the long side.
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.
Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks