There is a lot going on this morning and the markets are reflecting it.
Indexes are off over 1/2%. @CL is -1.29% TLT +.43% and Vix.x is +7.44%
The perfect storm, very bearish premarket. Odds are high for a trend day to the downside today.
I am long GDX which is +1.41% premarket. I expect it to go higher.
China trade talks seem to be dead at this point. The rhetoric is heating up between Bejing and the White House with no end in sight.
The White House’s decision to finally pull out of Syria has brought mass hysteria in DC. Not only among the neocons in the Republican party but not missing an opportunity the left all of a sudden is in favor of U.S. Troops abroad. Now, this is not as one-sided as the media would have you believe as there are many reasoned opinions supporting the decision. But of course, the language is framed in a way to make it look as bad as it can be. After all, as the hysteria is, Trump is leaving the Kurds to die! Preposterous and not true.
Then we have Schiff with the melodrama in the House, trying to protect the identity of the “whistleblower” at all costs because of the danger to them. A person who has no first-hand information, who has violated the laws. You cannot make this stuff up, its the theatre of the absurd at this point.
Next, you have the people that are inconsequential piping in. Scaramucci has now said Trump can make the deal of a lifetime and avoid jail.
And finally, the OCIG refused to tell Congress why he changed the whistleblower rule to include hearsay just prior to this complaint being filed.
The only thing that I am surprised about is that this market is not down 1000 pts this morning. Its mass hysteria in DC. The U.S. government has broken down. Sedition is active everywhere you turn your head. And so far no consequences.
And, we are still a year away from the 2020 elections:) It’s just going to get crazier.
Now, to get a perspective the odds this morning:
Trump impeached by end of 2019 51/49
Trump impeached in his 1st term 72/28
Senate convict Trump in his first term 80/20 Against. (This is the number to watch)
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 76/24 in Favor (Another number to watch)
So despite all the hysteria, the odds of a conviction in the Senate have moved from 3 to 1 to 4 to 1 against. In other words, there is less chance that he will be removed from office.
Remember, IG report out soon, Durham and Barr hard at work, and you know things are serious when Clapper goes on Cable and throws Obama under the bus.
Now, do you want to be long this market at this point in time:) Short term swings are fine, but if things happen to turn south the exit door will be hard to find.
There are some pretty good odds that I think have some value on the political spectrum. I will do an update on that this week.
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Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks