It was mostly about China yesterday as the market plummeted lower. As I said the premarket looked ripe for a trend day down. Now, these variables are not 100% but they give you an idea of where the day might go.
This morning its almost the exact opposite of the premarket yesterday. Indexes up almost 1%, TLT -.40 % @CL +1.18 % and VIX.X -5.82%. Remember I said almost, it’s not quite as positive as the variables were negative yesterday. So, A trend day up? I am not convinced of that yet.
Remember nothing has changed that I went through the last two days on the political front. Except, the momentum has shifted a bit. The White House sent out a letter saying they would not cooperate with the House as the entire process was a sham. (which it is until they vote).
You cannot have one party abusing their majority position on impeachment. The abuse is astonishing. But with the media in their pockets its easy to see how uninformed Americans would buy into it.
If your an avid Trump supporter you are on pins and needles and if your a “resistance” person you most likely are in a blood lust frenzy about now. As I said, it’s only going to get worse. But make no mistake, Trump’s enemies, while they seem on the offensive, are really on the defensive. The corrupt in DC is in a box right now, as it will not be long now. Their corruption will be exposed for all to see.
Ukraine is not about Biden. All Trump did in the typical Trump fashion is shift the attention to where much of the corruption is. It is much bigger than Biden. And we are now finding out bits and pieces that many more than Biden is in on this corruption. Pelosi and Schiff have ties to Ukraine. Many democrat politicians have had direct connections with Ukraine to frame Trump. And now, what is everyone talking about, Ukraine:) The stable genius has done it again.
Now, at first glance, you might think I am a staunch Republican. Far from it. I am anti-establishment regardless of which party they are in. The entire DC establishment is corrupt to the core. I have a distaste for corrupt establishment republicans as much as I have a distaste for the people that have hijacked the Democrat party.
Trump has exposed this for all that have open eyes and an open mind to see. What is frightening it is far worse than anyone ever imagined. This is what Trump is fighting. Win or lose, its an honorable fight. And anyone that takes up that fight I am with. Our country depends on winning it regardless of who is leading the fight. Right now it is Trump, and that is one of the reasons I support him.
Now let’s look at the odds this morning to get a taste of reality:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 46/54 in favor -5pts from yesterday
Trump impeached by the end of 1st term: 70/30 in favor -2 pts from yesterday
Senate convict Trump in his first term 81/19 against +1 pt from yesterday
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 78/22 in favor +2 pts from yesterday
Forget the media and the hysteria, watch the last two numbers.
Let me add one more to the list:
The U.S. 2020 Presidential winner:
Trump 40/60 Against.
Now, if there was ever an overlay taking the 3/2 on Trump would be it. The media and the hysteria have created an excellent positive EV wager here. If I were to put out a line it would be at least 2 to 1 in favor of Trump being re-elected.
There will be other wagers when they set the odds of Senate and House races. These will provide many positive EV opportunities. Remember the betting markets are swayed by the news. Can you imagine basing your betting decisions on the news:) You would be broke in record time.
One other advice I want to leave you with this morning. I always look for people online that provide objective analysis that is reasoned and logical. Some of the best are found on https://social.quodverum.com. Rex, Saul, and Victor are excellent reading day in and day out.
In addition there are many on twitter. Two many to list. But one that caught my eye this morning was this thread:
This was written by @drawandstrike. If true, the entire Mueller team is going down by the time this is over. In addition, there will be many in Congress on both sides that will be draw into this. Remember, it was the Senate Republicans that said we have to protect Mueller at all costs. And it was McCain that was directly involved in the fake dossier.
There is a lot of interesting things going on now. Unfortunatley if your an investor, it makes it very difficult to take a position with tight stops. AS far as I am concerned short term swings are the only way to go right now, until or if things settle down.
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.
Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks