Indexes up 1% premarket, updated Trump impeachment and conviction odds, Dems strategy. My thoughts for a Friday morning.

Indexes up 1% premarket, updated Trump impeachment and conviction odds, Dems strategy. My thoughts for a Friday morning.

The news is positive this morning with rumors of a china trade deal and also a Brexit deal. These are not confirmed yet, and if there are any hitchs the market will turn down rapidly.

Indexes are up about 1% premarket, TLT-.72% @CL +1.42% and Vix.x -4.61%. The vix number is a little low to expect a trend day to the upside. However keep a watch on it, if it gets into the -7 to -10 area a trend day would be more likely.

I exited GDX with a small gain yesterday. So except for my portfolio, I am flat for swing trades.

Looking at the Trump odds this morning:

Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 45/56 -1pt from 2 days ago

Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 71/29 +1pt from 2 days ago

Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 77/23 against  -4 pts from 2 days ago

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 74/26 -4pts from 2 days ago

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 40/60 against No Change

Warren: 35/65 against

Biden: 13/87 against

Clinton: 4/96 against

There is not much change and not much new news.

The dysfunction continues, however. The fact that USMCA has not been passed is about as good an indicator of how bad things are in DC right now. The Dems have no idea how not passing this is going to come back and bite them.

I have tried to figure out the Dems strategy for 2020 and for the life of me if they had an expert advisor who figured out a plan on how to best lose the House and get pounded in 2020, what they are doing now would be what he would advise.

I do not expect this rally in the markets to continue much longer without another scare. It will either come from a break in China talks or it will come from another hoax similar to the fake whistleblower on Ukraine. Make no mistake, there will be more. As long as they have the 24/7 media as a propaganda machine, its a certainty. If the media did real reporting they could not get away with it.  But those days are long gone. I have said for a long time that a counterintelligence investigation needs to be done with the U.S. media. They are supposed to be the 4th estate not the group that helps take down a U.S. government.

Until this hysteria subsides, I am going to be very cautious in the markets for long term positions.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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