Monday morning and the indexes are off slightly. TLT is plus almost 1%. @CL is -2% and Vix.x is +3.5%. That is a pretty negative premarket. Much more negative than the indexes show. It would not surprise me to see a move lower this morning. We had quite a runup last week and the market is due for some consolidation.
One chart I like to look at is:
As you can see the Weekly QQQ is close to crossing over the weekly SPY. Typically most of the money on the long side is made when the QQQ leads. It’s a good indicator to keep a watch on.
A lot going on in the news front. The IG report is supposed to be out on Friday. I assume they will wait until after the close. The expectation is it will reveal massive abuses of power by the Obama administration, FBI and the CIA. And the expectation is it will lead to many indictments. I have to reason to think differently.
The only question will be is how far up the chain do they go? At the very least I expect Brennan, Clapper, and Comey to get indicted. McCabe if he is not cooperating. And any others who have not become government witness’.
The only thing that remains to be seen is if they go after Obama, members of the Mueller team and some in Congress both on both sides of the aisle. It should be interesting.
In the meantime the hysteria of the day is Syria. If you are basing your opinions on the media and what politicians are saying you have not learned your lesson yet. The entire issue is complex, and what you are being sold is far from the truth. It is beyond the scope of this article to get into the details, but suffice it to say, find some people that know about the issue, rather than propagandists and political hacks. Many of the politicians that are hysterical about Trump’s new Syria policy are the same ones that were hysterical about his being there.
The rally last week was for the most part precipitated by the China Trade deal. It looks like at long last there will be some kind of deal. Just think of Congress would do its job and pass USMCA. Odds are 6/4 against if you can believe it. The Dems are flirting with extinction at this point.
Finally, let’s take an updated look at the political odds:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 43/57 Against -1pt
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 71/29 No Change
Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 81/19 against +4 pts no conviction
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 77/23 +3pts
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 40/60 against No Change
Warren: 34/66 against -1 pt
Biden: 13/87 against No Change
Clinton: 3/97 against -1pt
This is more of what reality is then what you read in the media. Watch these numbers to at least get some take on reality. Now, these are far from perfect. But much better than the media.
Two wagers I made:
Which party will win LA governor’s race? I laid 57/43 on the Republican. I viewed the odds at around 2 to 1 in favor of the Republican
The odds this morning are 59/41
Which party will win KY governor’s race? I laid 65/35 on the Republican. I viewed the odds at around 3 to 1 in favor of the Republican.
The odds this morning are 66/34
Remember I do not have to have the best of it to wager, I just need to think I have the best of it:)
Expect more volatility in the markets, as there will be many surprises as we approach the IG report.
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Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks