The markets are positive this morning up about .4%. TLT -.43% @CL -.24% and vix.x -3.50%
This is a slightly positive premarket bias.
I would have thought we would have had a lower open with the negative news about the China trade talks. But, one never knows how the markets are going to react. One can only make an educated guess:)
The big news now is Syria. It is more mass hysteria. I wonder if we will ever get a level headed calm reporting of the news anymore. You had ABC showing videos that were manufactured. We are seeing things now we have never seen before in this country. The news media intentionally misrepresenting the facts on the ground.
The Rhinos and the Dems are aligned on this one, but for different reasons. The Dems who were complaining we were in Syria months ago are now in hysterics that Trump is pulling out. The Rhinos who are for endless wars and helped get us into this mess are always for endless wars.
There are many level-headed intelligent people that have set out very good reasoning why Trump is correct. I tend to go with them on this one.
The Star Chamber headed by Schiff and company proceeds. Make no mistake it is a star chamber, headed by one of the most dishonest politicians America has seen in quite a while. There is no way to stop it at this point, but there is a bright spot in all of this. The Dems are almost assuredly setting up a massive defeat for them in 2020.
I have been asked if I was worried about Trump being reelected in 2020. I think its almost a certainty that he wins. The risk as I see it is in the Senate. The odds are 4-1 that the Senate does not convict. Now think about that for a second. The Republicans control the Senate. They need a 3/4 vote to convict. Yet the odds are only 4 to 1. That is pretty low under those circumstances, especially since many of the Republicans running in 2020 need Trump to carry them as they did in 2016.
Remember almost to a person in the Senate the mantra was let Mueller finish. I do not think it is going to be a cakewalk in the Senate. Now I always allow myself for the idea I could be wrong. After all, McConnell has said its pretty much a non-starter, and many Republicans are aligned with Trump on this one. But, 4 to 1? If the odds were 20 to 1 I would feel more comfortable.
I have been beaten by enough 1 outers at the poker tables to know what 4 to 1 means:)
But as to the markets what this means is more extreme volatility. It will be an emotional roller coaster ride. More importantly, can Americans stay sane during this process? I have my doubts.
Let’s take a look at the odds this morning to get a sense of reality:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 44/56 Against +1pt
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 72/28 +1 pt
Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 81/19 against No Change
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 77/23 No Change
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 39/61 against -1pt
Warren: 33/67 against -1 pt
Biden: 12/88 against -1pt
Clinton: 4/96 against +1pt
LA Governors race 57/43 Republican Favored -2pts I laid 57/43
KY Governors race 65/35 Republican Favored -1pt I laid 65/35
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Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks