We got the consolidation day I was looking for yesterday with the markets slightly lower. This morning is a different story. Indexes are up about 1/2% premarket with QQQ leading the way.
TLT -.09% @CL -.64% Vix.x -.22%.
That looks to me like a neutral premarket, one that if you have a method in place you might trade a gap fill trade. There are several methods, but, you have to have one. It’s a tricky trade.
I am flat on short term swings this morning. I have some income trades, selling naked puts, or covered calls. And I have a portfolio of Closed-end fund income-producing assets. Very little in straight out equities right now. I use those for the short term swings.
Not much in the way of new news last night. Elija Cummings passed away at 68. He was the chairman of the House oversight committee. May he rest in peace.
Everything else remains the same as the country awaits the IG report which supposedly was pushed back until the month-end. The star chamber continues as does the fake news leaking out of the chamber. I have no doubt Schiff was a student of the Spanish inquisition as his questioning techniques mimic the techniques used in the 1400s.
Look at the similarities. In the 1400s “The accused was required to testify, and he didn’t get a lawyer or any assistance. If he refused to testify, the Inquisitor took this refusal as proof of his guilt. Anybody could testify against him, including relatives, criminals, and other heretics, and he wasn’t told who his accusers were. The accused usually didn’t have any witnesses testify on his behalf because they could also fall under suspicion of being a heretic. He also wasn’t always immediately informed of the charges against him.”
“The goal of the inquisitor was always to extract a confession or admission of guilt.”
Now except for a few small differences there is little difference. And of course, Torture is not allowed. At least physical torture.
This is what the House has come down to. Instead of having a full vote on the House floor, they proceed in secret and leak. And there are no checks and balances to prevent this. Quite a system of laws the U.S. has in place. And leave it to the Dems to take advantage of every bit of protection that is missing.
Enough rambling, let’s look at the odds this morning:
Political odds update for Wednesday:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 50/50 Against +10 pts.
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 71/29 +4pts
Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 82/18 against No Change (This is the one to watch)
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 77/23 No Change (Another one to watch)
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 40/60 against No Change
Warren: 29/61against -1 pts
Biden: 12/88 against No Change
Clinton: 4/96 against +1pt
LA Governors race 57/43 Republican Favored +2pts I laid 57/43
KY Governors race 70/30 Republican Favored +5pts I laid 65/35
So some movement toward impeachment, but thats about it. Also some movement my way in the two governors races I wagered on. I expect them both to be at least 2 to 1 the day before the election.
Market volatility is still very high. With event risk at all-time highs right now.
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.
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Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks