Friday the indexes are about unchanged. @CL+.95% TLT +.10% and $vix.x +1.23%
That is a pretty neutral open. With crude being up I would expect any surprises to be on the upside. Watch for vix.x to turn red for confirmation.
I took a swing trade in IEF yesterday. That is the 7-10 note ETF. It is a system trade so not much discretion. I take the trade and wait for the exit.
The weekly SPY/QQQ chart is about to signal a buy unless there is a big change today. That is positive and it coincides with us approaching the best months of the year. The bulk of the money on the long side is made when this signal is positive. However, the event risk is still very high and the markets are still overbought. So I will wait until Monday to evaluate.
I have a number of short puts expiring today for income as well as a covered call trade. Monday I will be looking for more income trades to replace those.
A few things to watch today are:
1. the ceasefire on the Turkey border
2. How the market reacts to the weak investment in China
3. Today there will be some fed heads speaking.
The consensus is that the fed is getting into loosening mode, with more cuts and injecting liquidity into the markets. From what I see, that is what is going to happen. Powell made a mistake raising rates and no doubt he woke up one morning in a sweat and realized the mistake he was making. Global and political turmoil is just too high to start tightening right now.
One thing I have noticed is the way things are supposed to work is we have 3 branches of government all their for a specific purpose and also to provide checks and balances. In Theory, it sounds good. In practice oftentimes not so good. What we are seeing in the U.S. right now is an example of what can go astray in the plan.
At present, each branch wants to invade the other branch’s responsibilities. In addition, since there is a lack of independent oversight on Congress, they have no incentive to follow the rules. They oversee themselves if you can believe it. While almost every other branch of government has independent oversight the legislative bodies have created laws that exclude them from that, how sweet it is. And we are seeing what happens when there is no independent oversight to hold them accountable. It has become one big mess.
The rule always used to be that the President should be able to pick the cabinet of his choosing. They allowed Obama to put in Brennan, Clapper, Lynch, and others without much fanfare. But for Trump, each cabinet member is a battle. Not only from the Dems, but from his own party. So the Republicans that pretty much gave Obama a carte blanch give Trump the 3rd degree on most of his picks. Ratcliffe was a perfect example.
Why is that? The establishment Senate does not want anyone in there that will rock the boat. They cannot keep Trump in line with their self-interests, so they try to limit him to cabinet members that they like. The result has been disastrous for the country. It’s not going to change until the public starts realizing they have the power to change things. Establishment Republicans, in my opinion, have to go. They need to have strong primary challenges. That includes virtually every one of them. From Graham to McConnell. Nothing happens in the Senate without McConnell giving the ok. His approval of the fake witch hunt is enough alone to show them all the door.
Now, Trump will be endorsing and campaigning for many of them. But, he has no choice because he has to work with them. But, get good solid America first candidates and things can change. But it requires organization and a will. Nothing comes easy. But 2020 is an election season where the public is clamoring for change. And not the “Progressive” change but the America first change. You start putting people like Nunez, Desantis, Gohmert, Meadows, Gaetz, and Jordon in key positions in the Senate and you will see change.
There are people out there like them, you just have to find them, get them to run, and back them to the hilt.
That is my rambling for this morning:)
Volatility is still high for event risk. So be conservative for now.
Political odds update for Friday Morning:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 53/47 Against +3 pts.
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 73/22 +2 pts
Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 80/10 against -2 pts (This is the one to watch)
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 77/23 No Change (Another one to watch)
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 41/59 against +1 pt
Warren: 30/70against +1 pts
Biden: 13/87 against +1 pt
Clinton: 3/97 against -1pt
LA Governors race 59/41 Republican Favored +2pts I laid 57/43
KY Governor’s race 75/25 Republican Favored +5pts I laid 65/35
MS Governor’s race 87-13 Republic Favored I laid 87/13
I just made the Mississippi wager this morning. The election is 11/5 and it’s a 10% return in a month. Assuming it wins of course:) I view the odds at close to 99/1. So a nice overlay if I am correct.
As I said I like to make wagers about a month out.
Also on Thursday, I had one play in MLB on Houston +130 and they had an easy 8-3 win for +1.3 units.
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.
Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks