The indexes are positive premarket this morning up around .40%. TLT is off .60% @CL is -.60% and Vix.x is +2.04%.
A mixed bag pre-market but it is an hour before the open so these can change a bit. But right now A gap fill trade could go either way as I see it. Tossup:)
My only short term swing trade going right now is in IEF. I purchased the ETF at 111.87 and it is trading at 112.03 premarket. I suspect there will be an exit this week.
I also had a few income trades expire last Friday. So I will be looking to place them back in this morning both selling naked puts and also covered calls. This is a monthly routine for me that has worked out well.
The QQQ/SPY long trade did not trigger last week. It got close but backed off toward the end of the week. So far, we do not have that long trigger. Until we do, I am not going to get serious on the long side. We are approaching the best six months of the year in a few weeks. But again, there is so much going on right now, I am going to wait until I get this signal.
Well, the race is on, and it is one hell of a race. On the one side, you have the push for impeachment and on the other, you have the IG report, Barr and Durham getting ready to drop the hammer.
It’s a very interesting dynamic. Reports are that Durham well be questioning both Clapper and Brennan shortly. In addition, he has called in a number of CIA people who were involved in the Russia hoax and also the Russia interference opinions. Most of them have lawyered up. I fully suspect both Brennan and Clapper to lawyer up shortly.
Remember, Durham is the guy you bring in when you are serious. He is non-partisan, and he is deadly when it comes to indictments and convictions. From all indications, Barr is serious and bodes very badly for the people involved in the Russia Russia Russia hoax.
A new development over the weekend is that Durham’s investigation has expanded into the Senate Intelligence Committee. Imagine that. Not a big surprise when you have Warner with a backchannel to Russia, A convicted leaker out of their staff, And their calling Don Jr. twice when Mueller did not see the need to bring him before a Grand Jury. There is little doubt in my mind that many of the members of the Senate Intelligence Committee are dirty from both parties.
Which leads to an interesting dynamic and why the race is on. Right now the chances of conviction in the Senate are minimal. However, once the heat comes down on the intelligence commitee that may well change. The Senate might just feel the need to convict to save themselves from indictments. This is no small risk as I see it. Durham is a threat to them all and the one way they can end this is to convict Trump.
Who will win the race? That remains to be seen. But so far Trump has beaten everyone that he has taken on. So my money would be on Trump.
The IG report is out in 10 days or so. That should be the first shot across the bow. Word is it will be devasting to many. We will see:)
What this all means however if you are trading is that the volatility will be wild in the markets. Impeachment fever will increase, Assination threats will increase, riots will increase, and the Trump rallies will get larger and larger.
We are finally at the end game. And it will be a wild ending, to say the least.
So, whatever you do, stay focused on not getting overextended in the markets. As they will react to the news as it unfolds.
On to the update political odds over the weekend:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 47/53 Against -6 pts.
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 74/26 +1pt
Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 80/20 against No Change (This is the one to watch)
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 74/26 -3pts (Another one to watch)
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 44/56 against +3 pts
Warren: 44/56 against +14 pts
Biden: 20/80 against +7 pts
Clinton: 6/94 against +3 pts
LA Governors race 62/38 Republican Favored +4pts I laid 57/43
KY Governors race 72/31 Republican Favored -3pts I laid 65/35
MS Governor’s race 89-111 Republic Favored + 2 pts I laid 87/13
I made a new wager this morning:
I laid 40/60 that Giuliani would not be indicted before 12/31
Now, I know there have been several indictments handed down, but it is a long stretch to think that the DOJ will indict Giuliani. After all, the same DOJ gave Comey a pass on perjury and also have not indicted McCabe yet. 40/60 has to be a very strong overlay. I would put the odds at 4 to 1 against, at least. In addition, an indictment of this magnitude would have to be approved by Barr. What people do not realize is the connection between Guiliani, Barr, Mueller, Rosenstein, and Trump. There is a lot of kabuki going on right now. These people have worked closely together to fight corruption including taking down the mafia in the U.S.
To get a deeper understanding of this there is a great article outline it all:
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Have a great day trading:)
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