Markets are up again pre-market this morning as the news does not faze this market. The path of least resistance right now is to the upside.
Indexes are up about 1/4% an hour before the open.TLT is +.40% @CL is +.43% and VIX.X is +1/2%.
Not very exciting really:) Watch VIX.X for clues this morning. I am still long my IEF swing trade with a slight loss. I made a very quick swing yesterday in PPL shortly after the open. I purchase the stock at 32.14 and exited at 32.30. That would be a 1/2% gain in about 30 min or 310% annualized gain:) That is what I am sticking to right now, in addition to my portfolio.
The short term market position right now is neither overbought or oversold. There has been some minor consolidation, No pullback, so it is a question of waiting to see which way we break.
I did a short thread on my thoughts on the House Star Chamber and how it was going to go:
My guess is it will be the above or some close variation of it.
The news that is market-moving is Trudeau was re-elected in Canada. He is liberal friendly working closely with Obama. What that means is what little chance USMCA had of passing before the 2020 elections is most likely dead in the water. The House is not in the business of giving Trump wins, they are in the impeachment business right now.
Also, Pelosi and Schiff just lead a delegation to Jordan to discuss Syria. It is not enough that the political dysfunction in the U.S. has to stay toxic at home, the left feels the need to spread it out on the international stage. Have no doubt they were doing Trump no favors in Jordon.
The first phase of the China trade agreement is not rock solid. The Chinese see what is happening in the political arena here in the U.S. so I doubt they have an incentive to do any deals. They might as well wait to see what 2020 brings. If Trump is removed, then its business as usual and the U.S. politicians can go back to lining their pockets with Chinese money. Make no mistake that is what they will do.
Finally, the Turkey Syria ceasefire ends at midnight tonight. That will be something to keep a watch on as any large scale fighting will certainly affect the markets tomorrow.
Now, let’s take a look at the updated lines:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 36/64 Against -11 Pts.
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 72/28 – 2 Pts
Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 78/22 against – 2Pts (This is the one to watch)
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 73/27 -1Pt (Another one to watch)
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 40/60 -4 pts
Warren: 25/75 -19 pts
Biden: 12/78 -8 pts
Clinton: 3/97 -3 pts
LA Governors race 65/35 Republican Favored +3pts I laid 57/43
KY Governors race 75/25 Republican Favored +3pts I laid 65/35
MS Governor’s race 90-10 Republic Favored + 1 pts I laid 87/13
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 42/58 +2 Pts I laid 40/60
I have thought about wagering on conviction in the Senate. At .22 or almost 4 to 1 my plan would be to lay it off after I got a 50% return. The problem with the wager is the House may not impeach. So I may not get a chance to lay the wager off. so I am going to pass on that idea for now.
Also, the Swing state’s odds are out now.
Mich 67/34 Dem
Minn 75/30 Dem
PA 69/33 Dem
WI 66/33 Dem
FL 57/47 Rep
IA 58/44 Rep
NH 72/31 Dem
NV 79/26 Dem
OH 66/37 Rep
AZ 58/46 Rep
NC 53/51 Rep
Ga 73/29 Rep
Co 79/22 Dem
VA 86/15 Dem
I think you could take the Republican side in every swing state listed and have a healthy gain after 2020. That is assuming the Senate does not do anything stupid. If they do, they will most likely lose every swing state and the Senate. They will be buried in 2020. McConnell knows that, and that is what most likely will keep them in line. Both Graham and McConnell would likely lose their seats in 2020 if they remove Trump, along with many others.
Now there are some in the Senate that could care less, as they could easily move over to the Democrat side. People like Murkowski and Romney are very good examples. There are a few others also.
So we will see, but watch the conviction odds. if it starts to get closer to 40/60 then its time to pay attention. Right now it’s still around 4 to 1 against. So far all we are seeing is virtue signaling from the cowardly Republicans. Watch the odds, do not listen to the media on this one, or anything for that matter.
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Have a great day trading:)
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks