The indexes are unchanged this morning, except for the Nasdaq which is off 1/5th %. @CL is -1.27% TLT +.46% and Vix.x is +1.73%.
Not much different than the premarket yesterday. The exception is that the indexes were down sharply overnight and have rebounded 30 min before the open. My guess would be more of the same today. Watch vix.x go negative before you wager on a rebound today.
I still have the IEF swing trade which is showing me back on the plus side of the trade in the premarket this morning.
The markets have not broken and are consolidating right here. My guess is absent some earth-shaking news we break out to the upside. When? That is the question. And do we get a pullback first? Another question?
No one knows for certain, all you can do is play the probabilities.
I received some emails regarding the lack of mean reversion trading. They only come along after sharp pullbacks. And that is not anything we have seen in a long time.
On the dysfunctional political front, there is not much new regardless of what the media would have you believe. If you want to stay grounded I suggest you head over to Quodverum.com
The articles are excellent and then in the forum some of the best-grounded truth-tellers are:
These 4 will keep you well-grounded, along with the articles on the web site.
It is essential if not critical you divorce yourself from the U.S. media.
In addition on my twitter feed: @rickjsportplays I have a twitter list labeled Realnews. Most of my lists are private for my own research but the real news list is open to the public. I add and delete names all the time to improve the content. Feel free to take a look and subscribe.
Now, let’s take a look at the odds this morning to even get more well-grounded:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 42/58 Against +8 Pts.
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 75/25 +3 Pts
Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 78/22 against No Change (This is the one to watch)
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 72/28 -1Pt (Another one to watch)
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 41/59 +1 Pt
Warren: 25/75 No Change
Biden: 13/77 +1 Pt
Sanders 9/91 No Change
Buttigieg 9/91 No Change
Clinton: 4/96 +1 Pt
LA Governor’s race 70/30 Republican Favored +5pts I laid 57/43
KY Governor’s race 71/29 Republican Favored -4 pts I laid 65/35
MS Governor’s race 91-09 Republic Favored + 1 pts I laid 87/13
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 40/60 -2 Pts I laid 40/60
Regardless of the 27/7 news hysteria, the lines have not budged.
I have indicated the important lines to watch, they will signal any real news that hits. These lines do not react that much to fake news. Although, there is some value in them as a result of fake news. I will talk about that more another day:)
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.
Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Have a great day trading:)
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks