Market gaps up, Chaos in the House as Republicans storm the star chamber, Syria, updated political odds. My thoughts for a Thursday morning

And up we go this morning, 15 min before the open and the indexes are higher lead by the Nasdaq. @CL is +1/2%, TLT unchanged and vix.x is -1.21%. That is a change from the other days this week that found the Vix.x positive on the open. Watch vix.x and if it keeps heading lower look for higher highs today.

I have two short term swing trades on right now. I am long IEF at 1111.87 and it is trading at 111.79 premarket. I am short FXE at 105.56 and it closed yesterday at 105.70. So the jury is still out on both of these trades:)

I took a short term swing in OKTA yesterday and go wiggled out, with the stock rebounding into the close:( On these very short term trades I do not take much heat, they either work right away or I am out.

Not much news this morning, except the Republican House stormed Schiff’s star-chamber yesterday. Something we have not seen in quite a while. Meanwhile, over in the Senate, the most you can get out of many of them is virtue signaling about an opening statement, that is based upon 4th hand information. If I did not know better I would think I was having a nightmare and would wake up and America would be back to its normal self.

Unfortunately, this is the reality we are living in right now. I read a very good quote this morning I would like to share:

“A newspaper is a device for making the ignorant more ignorant and the crazy crazier. ”
– H. L. Mencken

This is even truer today. Yesterday I gave some links to what I consider real sources for staying abreast of reality. I have more and when I have some time I will share them with you. They are all on my list REALNEWS under my twitter account @rickjsportplays.

On the international front Trump has made everyone look like fools again with the permanent ceasefire between the Kurds and Turkey, a buffer zone and likely some stability. The thank you from the General of the Kurds puts to bed the idea that Trump has abandoned the Kurds. Let me ask, can the Rhinos at this point look any more inept. ISUS was raging out of control, Trump took care of that in record time, He calmed the tensions on the Korean peninsula, and now some progress is being made in Syria.

I have been asked about when Trump will receive the Nobel Peace Prize. Answer: Never. Politics has hijacked that also.

Now let’s get on to the updated political odds:

Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 42/58 Against No Change

Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 77/23 -1 Pts ( I expect this to happen)

Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 78/22 against No Change (This is the one to watch)

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 75/25 +3Pts (Another one to watch)

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 41/59 No Change
Warren: 25/75 No Change
Biden: 14/76 +1 Pt
Sanders 10/90 +1 pt
Clinton: 4/96 No Change

LA Governor’s race 69/31 Republican Favored -1pt I laid 57/43

KY Governor’s race 74/26 Republican Favored +3 pts I laid 65/35

MS Governor’s race 91-09 Republic Favored No Change I laid 87/13

Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 35/65 -5 Pts I laid 40/60

I have negative equity in the Giuliani wager. I still like the wager a lot. Listen if Barr is not indicting McCabe yet, there is a snowball’s chance in hell he is going to indict Giuliani. This, in my opinion, is still an excellent wager. You are getting almost 2 to 1 now.

Remember, there are a lot of liberals that use Predictit for wagering. My analogy is like when I used to bet poker players on political wagers.

If you want some free money, You can lay 83/17 that Barr will not be federally indicated by 12/31. For that to happen Trump would have to be removed before 12/31. And even then it’s a good bet. Its as close to free money as you will find. But you have to lay about 4.5 to 1. That annualized is over 100% annual return:)

The market just opened so have to go. Have a good trading day.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Have a great day trading:)


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

Skype: Ricca

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