The markets are softer this morning pre-market lead by the Nasdaq to the downside. @CL -1/5th% TLT +.32% and $vix.x -.36%.
With Vix.x negative you could consider a gap fill, however, its a bit riskier with QQQ off 1/2%. Myself, I would pass. I just look for the perfect setups on gap fills, and even then it is no cakewalk:)
The market is still a bit overbought but is consolidating rather than pulling back. Again, I expect a move to the upside soon, assuming now earthshaking news hits. We are only a week away from the start of the six best months of the year for the stock market. In addition, the QQQ/SPY ratio is about to signal a weekly buy signal. It would take a big disparity today to avoid the signal.
I do not view that as a risk-free sign, but only as an encouraging signal.
Not much news on the economic front overnight. But some reality-based news out yesterday that Durham’s investigation is now a full-blown criminal probe. That means grand juries, and soon after indictments. They have read the IG report, and now its full steam ahead.
Durham made an interesting comment yesterday that perhaps the FBI was misled by the CIA and other intelligence agencies. This to me appears to be a masterstroke. Afterall the FBI has already been disgraced and decimated. What does it cost him to encourage the FBI to start cooperating by giving them an out? And I have no doubt many will jump at this out. Wonder why McCabe has not been indicted yet? I have little doubt he is cooperating fully with Durham at this point. He would be the first person to buy into the idea they were misled by Brennan and Clapper.
We are at the end game now in this Russia, Russia, Russia hoax and it is not going to be pretty. Heads will roll. People will be indicted, and unfortunately, violence is going to increase geometrically as we are in the end game. Why? Because that is all they have left. The press and the politicians will be encouraging it. I fully expect organized violence in all major cities and at all Trump rallies. In addition, Republican Town Halls will be attacked. We are entering a very dangerous time right now. Be aware.
All you can do right now is stay grounded. Listen to the various cites and people I suggested for reality. And watch the odds. They will tell you more than the media and the polling.
Now about the odds. They are slanted toward the liberal side because people are wagering based upon the polls and the media. This creates an opportunity for a sharp bettor. It’s similar to the NFL when you have the public banging one side of the game. The public is wrong way more often then they are right. And my opinion is, when they are right it is mainly because of random chance:)
The end result of all this is volatility can enter into the market at a moment’s notice. Be aware of this fact.
Now let’s look at the updated political odds:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 40/60 Against -2 Pts
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 78/22 +1 Pt ( I expect this to happen)
Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 80/20 against + 2 Pts (This is the one to watch)
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 74/26 -1Pt (Another one to watch)
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 41/59 No Change
Warren: 28/72 + 2 Pts
Biden: 13/77 -1 Pt
Sanders 9/91 -1 pt
Clinton: 4/96 No Change
LA Governor’s race 67/33 Republican Favored -2pts I laid 57/43 ( I sold my shares for a 15% gain in 2 weeks) That is 360% annualized:)
KY Governor’s race 69/31 Republican Favored -5 pts I laid 65/35
MS Governor’s race 90-10 Republic Favored – 1 Pt I laid 87/13
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 36/64 +1 Pt I laid 40/60 ( I added to this wager this morning with the proceeds from the LA governors race)
I still say getting almost 2 to 1 on this wager is amazing. It is so far off by my thinking, I have to question my reasoning. Often times in the sports when I handicap a game and my handicapping is substantially different, I tend to suspect I may be overlooking something.
In this instance, I have thought about it, and I feel its just a wager that has a lot of value. I do not see Barr indicting Giuliani when for several reasons: 1. he most likely has violated no laws and 2. He has given many in the FBI a pass. The left wants blood here, and I do not think they will get it here.
For free money lay 81 to 19 that Barr will not be federally indicated by year-end. The U.S. government would have to crumble by year-end for that to happen. The odds are 91-9 that Trump will still be president at the end of the year. So lay the 4 to 1 its a gift:)
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.
Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Have a great day trading:)
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks