Monday morning and the markets are set to break out to make new highs. The QQQ/SPY signal triggered on Friday. The best 6 months of the year starts Friday. What could possibly go wrong:)
Answer: Impeachment
The Fed is getting in line. China trade deal is most likely going to be made, at least phase 1. Trump proved right in Syria.
So it all comes down to impeachment. Watch the odds as that is the only thing right now that can derail this market. Its no small risk as I expect the House to impeach. Also, I expect some drama in the Senate. I expect no conviction, but politicians what they are will torture Americans even more before the 2020 election.
That is our politics today. It is sick and is on life support at this point. The House is leading the resistance. They are supposed to be representing the will of the people, and instead they go on their own rogue to break all norms with this impeachment probe with no approval from the house.
How this ends remains to be seen. But it essential you stay grounded and not get overly enthusiastic about the knew highs. Impeachment will derail this market. What the SEC should be doing is monitoring unusual transactions before the House brings up an impeachment vote. I have no doubt House members will be shorting this market before the final push.
So, you see how cynical I have become:) Myself I would call it being a realist.
Now the markets. The indexes are positive about 1/2%. TLT -3/4% @CL above even $vix.x +1.68%. Watch $vix.x as it will need to turn negative before we get a nice continuation of the gap to the upside. I would not be making a gap trade here with TLT off 3/4%. My guess is it will be Vix.x that will head negative. But just a guess.
I am still short FXE at 105.56 and it is trading at 105.32 pre-market. I expect an exit signal soon.
I also made a swing trade on Friday, a day trade that turned into an overnight. I am long ATVI calls that expire the end of this week. I plan on getting out of these this morning.
Updated political odds this morning:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 38/62 Against -2 Pts
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 75/25 -3 Pt ( I expect this to happen)
Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 78/22 against – 2 Pts (This is the one to watch)
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 73/27 -1Pt (Another one to watch)
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 42/58 +1 Pt
Warren: 25/75 -3 Pts
Biden: 13/77 No Change
Sanders 9/91 No Change
Clinton: 5/95 +1 Pt
LA Governor’s race 69/31 Republican Favored No Change ( I sold my shares for a 15% gain in 2 weeks) That is 360% annualized:)
KY Governor’s race 65/35 Republican Favored -4 pts I laid 65/35
MS Governor’s race 91-9 Republic Favored + 1 Pt I laid 87/13
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 36/64 +1 Pt I laid 40/60
A good weekend for sports handicapping. 4-1 in the Westgate NFL Supercontest, 3-2 in College football plays, 1-0 on NFL plays.
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.
Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Have a great day trading:)
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing
Skype: Ricca
