The indexes are slightly lower this morning, anywhere from 1/10 to 1/3% lower. TLT +1/4%, @CL -1.33% and $vix.x +2.29%.
This to me means a weak premarket. I would not play a gap fill this morning. I would be looking for a continuation trade lower.
All this presumes you have a solid method for these trades:)
I am still short FXE and it is unchanged right now pre-market. In at 105.56 and it is now trading at 105.42.
A few things to keep in mind this week are Wednesday is Fed day. Also, the House will take a vote, supposedly by the full house on how to proceed with their impeachment procedure. Nobody knows the wording of the bill, and I imagine it will be sprung on everyone at the last second. I suspect the Democratic members of the House who are in districts where Trump carried their state, will be very nervous. This will be the first time they will have to go on record approving this process.
At this point, it is most likely irrelevant what they do as I suspect most will be gone in 2020, the way things have gone in the House. But this will just be the nail in the coffin for them.
Americans are expecting the House to vote on USMCA not monkey around with politics. And it has been politics for them 24/7 since they took over the House. This will turn around and bite them. The odds are 5 to 2 that they hold the House in 2020. I am thinking more like even money at best. This assumes the Senate Republicans do not do anything stupid. That is something you can never count on.
Watch the wording of the Fed tomorrow, and watch how the vote goes in the House. Remember Pelosi will have the votes before she brings this to the House floor. She is leading the moderate Democrats right over the cliff with her and Schiff. It is a sight to see.
Meanwhile, we still have the IG report, Barr and Durham coming. Nothing can stop what is coming at this point.
If you want to stay abreast of the news as it develops from people I consider reasonable, you might take a look at my list realnews on Twitter under @rickjsportplays. It is the only list I have that is open to the public. I add and subtract from it often.
Now, let’s take a look at the political odds:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 41/59 Against -1 Pt
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 79/21 +1 Pt ( I expect this to happen)
Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 78/22 against – 2 Pts (This is the one to watch)
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 73/27 -1Pt (Another one to watch)
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 42/58 +1 Pt
Warren: 23/77 -5 Pts
Biden: 12/78 -1 Pt
Sanders 9/91 No Change
Clinton 5/95 +1 Pt
LA Governor’s race 63/36 Republican Favored -4pts I laid 57/43 ( I sold my shares for a 15% gain in 2 weeks) That is 360% annualized:)
KY Governor’s race 65/35 Republican Favored -4 pts I laid 65/35
MS Governor’s race 90-10 Republic Favored No Change I laid 87/13
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 36/64 No Change I laid 40/60 ( I added to this wager this morning with the proceeds from the LA governors race)
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.
Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Have a great day trading:)
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks