The Fed cut interest rates 1/4% yesterday and the markets hesitated but then headed higher. This morning the indexes are mixed with the Nasdaq slightly higher and the rest a bit lower.
TLT +.90%, @CL -1.24%, Vix.x +4.79% This is a negative premarket and unless these numbers change I would expect a dip today. How big will depend on vix.x If we get past +7% it might indicate a trend day to the downside.
The only short term swing I have is the Short FXE.
Two news hitting the markets this morning. The big news is it looks like there is a hitch in the China trade deal. Who didn’t know that was coming. The Chinese are playing games. I assume that will continue to play games until the 2020 elections. In the meantime, they will do whatever they can to defeat Trump. He is the only President that has held China’s feet to the fire. All the rest have taken their money and sold out America.
But of course, Trump is the bad guy. What is amazing is that with the media blasting him 24/7, an ongoing coup since the beginning of presidency, that he has steadfastly accomplished most of what he promised. And did it in record time.
Americans have had it way to easy over the years. They understand unfortunately what other countries experience when fascism takes over. It’s coming as I see it. Trump has put his finger in the dam, but with the money and power behind destroying western countries, I see very little hope in the long run.
The U.S. education system is putting out socialists at a record number. Until this is changed, the future looks bleak for America as I see it. The Country that was the most successful is going to become a 3rd world country in record time. Doubt me? Look at California. Typhoid, Bubonic plague, homeless scattered everywhere, electricity outages, high taxes, and it is getting worse.
This is what the future has in store for America. The rule of law is dead. Just look at the proceedings in the House. Look at the ongoing coup. Look at Antifa.
It’s a grim picture, perhaps Americans will wake up. It will be their decision to make. It’s a monumental task to clean this up. I would rate it a tossup at best in the long run.
Speaking of the House, they will vote today to essentially reaffirm their star-chamber techniques. But what do you expect from a speaker that prides herself in “The wrap-up smear”. As long as you have the House headed by a person of no integrity, expect this to continue.
So, why are the markets making new highs??? It’s rather simple. The internal polling indicates a REpublican landslide in 2020. That is the way I see it also. The only thing that can stop it is 1. The Senate Republicans self-destructing (always a possibility ), a Trump assassination.
Barr and Durham are hot on the trail of the coup plotters, and a lot will hinge on the actions they take. That is something to watch. If they give everyone a pass, that will not bode well. Everyone involved needs to be taken down.
So, what this all means for the markets, is that volatility will hit and I expect it to hit soon. Things are heating up as we are in the end game of all of this. As we get closer to 2020 the violence will start escalating.
Now let’s look at the political odds:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 39/61 Against -2 Pts
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 80/20 +1 Pt ( I expect this to happen)
Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 78/22 against No Change (This is the one to watch)
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 74/26 +1Pt (Another one to watch)
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 41/59 -1 Pt
Warren: 24/76 +1 Pt
Biden: 12/78 No Change
Sanders 8/92 -1 Pt
Clinton 6/94 +1 Pt
LA Governor’s race 60/40 Republican Favored -3pts I laid 57/43 ( I sold my shares for a 15% gain in 2 weeks) That is 360% annualized:)
KY Governor’s race 68/33 Republican Favored +3 pts I laid 65/35
MS Governor’s race 89-12 Republic Favored – 1 Pt I laid 87/13
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 40/60 + 4 Pts I laid 40/60
One final bit of news. Twitter has indicated that it will not allow any political advertising. If this is not a sell signal for Twitter I do not know what is. Shutting off a revenue stream for ideological reasons is right up the left’s alley. No doubt the shareholders are in dismay. Jack should be fired by the end of this week for that decision along with their entire board. Twitter is off 1.31% premarket and I suspect the fall is going to get much worse. They have abandoned any precept of showing a profit.
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Have a great day trading:)
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks