The markets are moving higher Monday morning. It looks like the qqq/spy trigger was a good one, along with us being in the best six months of the year. So off we go.
The indexes are up about 1/2% across the board pre-market. TLT -.80% @CL + 1% and vix.x is +2.68%.
Everything is in line for a strong day except the vix. Watch it for clues this morning. I will be watching if it turns negative.
My guess is a consolidation day unless we see a reversal in the Vix. I have a number of income trades expiring 11/15. And will be looking for more either with naked put sales or covered calls when they expire.
I am still short my FXE trade with a small loss. Still no exit signal in sight.
Not much new on the news front. It’s just more of the same. We do have the funding deadline approaching. With DC in the turmoil, it is, expect some drama. Schiff is still hard at work undermining Democracy, and the IG report, Barr and Durham still approaching.
We have a few governor races coming up. Louisiana, GA and KY. Watch these for clues. I expect the Republicans to win all 3. 2 of 3 no alarm. If they lose 2 of 3 that would be a red flag for Republicans.
Had a good weekend in the NFL, going 2-0 on plays and 3-2 in the Westgate SuperContest. Still at 60% so will need a run to hop into the top 100 soon.
Here are the political odds for this morning:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 36/64 Against -3 Pts
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 77/23 -3 Pts ( I expect this to happen)
Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 81/19 -3 Pts (This is the one to watch)
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 77/23 +3 Pts (Another one to watch)
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 41/59 No Change
Warren: 22/78 -2 Pts
Biden: 14/76 + 2 Pts
Buttigieg 12/88 + 3 Pts
Sanders 9/91 +1 Pt
Clinton 5/95 -1 Pt
LA Governor’s race 63/37 Republican Favored +3pts I laid 57/43 ( I sold my shares for a 15% gain in 2 weeks) That is 360% annualized:)
KY Governor’s race 75/25 Republican Favored +7 pts I laid 65/35
MS Governor’s race 90-10 Republic Favored + 1 Pt I laid 87/13
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 46/554 – 3 Pts I laid 40/60
Not much has changed. I was underwater a bit on the Giuliani wager but If I can get a 20% profit I will take it. No reason to tie my money up for over a year. As I said watch these 3 governor races for clues. I expect all 3 to have Republican wins.
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.
Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Have a great day trading:)
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks