The indexes gapping up again this morning:) Up about 1/4%. @CL+3/4% TLT -.90% and Vix.x +1%
A mixed bag this morning with vix.x positive. Watch this to turn before a significant rally. I know the market has been strong while the vix.x has stayed positive. But that is not very normal.
You will find the general rules do not always apply. This is one of the ones we are witnessing now.
We are overextended in the short term. But the rule is that overextended can become more overextended. That is why I do not usually trade mean reversion trades on the short side.
I am short FXE and it is finally tumbling this morning pre-market. At the close, I got long TLT. This is a system trade also. It’s off sharply this morning but we are approaching support. So let’s see what develops on that trade.
Not much different in News today. We have hit a quiet period with a lot going on behind the scenes.
The Governorship races begin today with MS and KY today, also Virginia. Trump went out and campaigned in MS and KY. Watch the results for clues.
Here are the political odds this morning:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 35/65 Against -1 Pt
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 79/21 +2 Pts ( I expect this to happen)
Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 83/17 +2 Pts (This is the one to watch)
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 76/24 -1 Pt (Another one to watch)
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 42/58 +1 Pt
Warren: 20/80 -2 Pts
Biden: 14/76 No Change
Buttigieg 12/88 No Change
Sanders 9/91 No Change
Clinton 5/95 No Change
LA Governor’s race 60/40 Republican Favored -3 pts I laid 57/43 ( I sold my shares for a 15% gain in 2 weeks) That is 360% annualized:)
KY Governor’s race 72/28 Republican Favored -2 pts I laid 65/35
MS Governor’s race 88-12 Republic Favored -2 Pts I laid 87/13
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 47/53 – 1 Pt I laid 40/60
So I have equity in the Giuliani bet, LA gov I sold my shares for a .15 profit at .72. With it back down to 60/40 my sale looks good.
KY and MS I have again in KY and MS about even.
I will be hanging onto those with no layoff. I like to see at least a 20% gain before I lay the bet off.
I am about there on the Giuliani wager but the wagering is light and I have 1219 shares. So it will not be easy to lay it off. But I, of course, can leg into it.
Once KY and MS get settled I will look for a few other wagers to make.
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
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Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Have a great day trading:)
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing
Skype: Ricca
