A tame open on Wednesday morning with the indexes about unchanged. @CL is -.40% TLT +.60% $vix.x is +.15%.
One thing to notice is that this upswing has been slightly coordinated with a positive Vix.x change. There are a lot of theories as to what this means. Myself, there is enough randomness in the markets that I look at things like this as variables. Similar to the way I have variables in sports handicapping.
All they do is create a bias, they alone are far from conclusive. Ideally, you want to have a number of variables like this to go by.
Now I have talked about the QQQ/SPY ratio. I learned this from Rob Hannah at
His is one of the few services I subscribe to, and I have been a member for many years. He is one of the few that produces real value.
Notice the trigger dates and how they correspond to gains in spy or QQQ.
For swing trades, I am long TLT at 138.79 premarket it is trading at 138.10. I am also short FXE at 105.56 it’s trading at 105.05 premarket. Both are system trades, so it is just a matter of waiting for an exit.
We had elections yesterday in a few states. I had the Kentucky governorship as a wager and as I explained yesterday I sold my shares for a profit. I did the same with LA. I kept Mississippi and the Republican won easily.
So now I am left with the Giuliani wager and have close to a 10% gain on that wager.
So far I am batting 100% on my wagers including the settlements.
You will hear a lot of spin on Kentucky. Do not believe a word of it. The Republicans crushed Kentucky with the exception of the governorship. And as of this morning, the outcome of that race is still up in the air.
The loss the Republicans took was in Virginia. I have not analyzed that one, but the lost both houses in Virginia. I will have to take a look to see what happened there before I draw any conclusions.
We are still on hold waiting for the IG report, Barr, Durham and Huber. If you are waiting on impeachment, do not bother. It’s almost a certainty that the House will impeach at this point. Not everyone agrees with that assessment, but that is how I see it.
The importance of this is how it affects the markets. I expect an initial dip. What you need if you could would be to have a window into how Schiff, and others in Congress make trades. Once they start going short or selling shares you know it is on the way. Sort of like following insider trading:) I assure you they are trading prior to key announcements.
Now onto the political odds this morning:
Here are the political odds this morning:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 35/65 No Change
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 78/22 +1 Pt ( I expect this to happen)
Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 18/82 +1 Pt (This is the one to watch)
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 78/22 +2 Pts (Another one to watch)
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 41/59 -1 Pt
Warren: 21/79 +1 Pt
Biden: 13/77 -1 Pt
Buttigieg 13/87 +1 Pt
Sanders 9/91 No Change
Clinton 5/95 No Change
LA Governor’s race 52/48 Republican Favored -6 pts I laid 57/43 ( I sold my shares for a 15% gain in 2 weeks) That is 360% annualized:)
KY Governor’s race 96/4 Democrat Favored +140 Pts I laid 65/35( I sold this out before the election for a 15% gain)
MS Governor’s race 99-1 Republic Favored +11 Pts I laid 87/13
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 42/58 – 5 Pts I laid 40/60
So I have equity in the Giuliani bet, LA gov I sold my shares for a .15 profit at .72. With it back down to 60/40 my sale looks good.
I am about there on the Giuliani wager but the wagering is light and I have 1219 shares. So it will not be easy to lay it off. But I, of course, can leg into it.
I won MS and settle KY so the only wager I have going now is the Giuliani wager.
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.
Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Have a great day trading:)
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks