The indexes are gapping up again this morning. All up around 1/2%. TLT -1% @CL +1.7% and $vix.x is -1/2 %.
This is a positive premarket. I would be looking for a continuation trade to the upside, with the caveat that $vix.x needs to be with the trade. That means at least negative, the lower the better.
My two swing trades going now are short FXE at 105.56 last trade is 105.04. I am also long TLT at 138.79, last trade 136.42.
One stock I mentioned to short awhile ago after they announced they were not taking political advertising is Twitter. Ten-day ago it had a large gap down from around 38 to 32. This morning it is off 1.6% and getting reading to break to the downside after a consolidation from the large gap down.
You cannot turn away business because of your political ideology. Once a public company goes down that road it is time to get rid of the stock. Social media these days is a commodity business. This means the ease of entry is low and they sell a product that can be easily matched.
Twitter got a head start on everyone and instead of becoming innovative and expanding their audience they are doing the exact opposite. If I was on the board, I would be firing everyone involved in this decision. The problem everyone on the board has the same ideology.
So the market place will take care of them. My guess is the stock gets so low, that there will either be a chapter 7, or a hostile takeover, similar to what happened to Wynn and the Bellagio. This is happening with too much regularity.
Nike, Netflix, Dick’s Sporting Goods are several other examples. In addition, you now have states that are blacklisting other states on policy. This is not going to end well. All it does is weaken America.
I do not see this ending well for the Country or the markets. Obviously not in the near term, but in the long run if this continues, its time to start looking for another country to move to. If you do not think things can get very bad for Americans, just look at history. There are some very bad players hell-bent on destroying the U.S.
Watch the elections. Virginia was not a good sign. Kentucky despite the spin was an excellent sign. The Dems got pounded, except for the Governorship. And that is still up in the air. If I had to wager, I would say more likely than not Bevin wins as voter fraud is uncovered.
When I say more likely than not, that means more than 50%. In addition, most other elections have gone toward the Republican side.
Watch Louisiana.
The reason it’s important to pay attention to politics is that it has a direct effect on the markets. Trump gets removed from office and the market takes a dive you would have never thought possible. That is my prediction:)
For news, it looks like a partial trade deal with China is likely. Also, the House is going to begin open hearings.
Also, Durham has formed a Grand Jury, which means indictments are coming. I suspect the people that get indicted and the allegations are going to shock many people. Especially the people that get their news from the liberal media.
Let’s take a look at what the political odds are this morning:
Here are the political odds this morning:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 42/58 +7 Pts
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 80/20 +2 Pts ( I expect this to happen)
Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 18/82 No Change (This is the one to watch)
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 77/23 -1 Pt (Another one to watch)
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 42/58 +1 Pt
Warren: 18/82 -2 Pts
Biden: 13/77 No Change
Buttigieg 13/87 No Change
Sanders 10/90 +1 Pt
Clinton 4/96 – 1 Pt
LA Governor’s race 52/48 Republican Favored No Change I laid 57/43 ( I sold my shares for a 15% gain in 2 weeks) That is 360% annualized:)
KY Governor’s race 94/6 Democrat I laid 65/35( I sold this out before the election for a 15% gain) This is still considered too close to call, a Recount is in the works.
MS Governor’s race 99-1 Republic Favored +11 Pts I laid 87/13 This wager was a win.
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 44/56 +2 Pts I laid 40/60
So I have equity in the Giuliani bet, LA gov I sold my shares for a .15 profit at .72. With it back down to 60/40 my sale looks good.
I am about there on the Giuliani wager but the wagering is light and I have 1219 shares. So it will not be easy to lay it off. But I, of course, can leg into it.
I won MS and settle KY so the only wager I have going now is the Giuliani wager.
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.
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Have a great day trading:)
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing
Skype: Ricca
