The indexes are slightly lower early this morning. TLT +.5% @CL -1.38% Vix.x +1.49%
This to me looks like a range day with the potential of a pullback.
Unfortunately, all you can do is make an educated guess where the markets are headed:) There is no certainty in all of this.
My two swing trades are still on with Short FXE and Long TLT. I did get an exit signal on FXE and will get out on the open. TLT no signal yet.
The stock market is very overbought here. Any bad news will send this market lower. But for now, it is up every day:)
Not much in the news. Bloomberg is thinking about entering the fray as a Democrat presidential candidate. If he were to get the nomination the progressive side of the party would revolt.
I am in a pretty down mood this morning, as I have come to the conclusion that the U.S. is in trouble.
I have no political ideology. I call it as I see it. I voted for Obama in his first term. I am not dogmatic on any issue. I even ran as a Democrat a long time ago in a local race:)
But what I am observing now in the U.S. is the fabric of the society falling apart. The country is divided, the politicians are corrupt, laws are being selectively enforced on a political basis, half the country is brainwashed. So what is the prognosis? Not good.
I know many are thinking Huber, Durham, and Barr are going to come in and save the day with indictments. But remember, 2020 is an election year. Unless they plan military tribunals, the criminal justice system takes a long time to get through the process. If Trump loses in 2020, all prosecutions will be dropped, they will attempt to destroy Trump and his family.
If you think the proceedings in the House are scary, wait until you see what happens if Trump loses.
I think what you are seeing now is what John Adams predicted:
In the long run, this does not bode well for the markets. Short term, however, it is just something to keep a watch on. You can protect yourself by not being in debt, And staying mentally healthy. There will be some challenging times coming. It is around the corner.
Let’s take a look at the political odds this morning:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 46/54 +4 Pts
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 79/21 -1 Pts ( I expect this to happen)
Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 18/82 No Change (This is the one to watch)
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 78/22 +1 Pt (Another one to watch)
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 41/57 -1 Pt
Warren: 19/81 +1 Pts
Biden: 12/78 -1 Pt
Buttigieg 11/89 -2 Pts
Sanders 9/91 -1 Pt
Clinton 4/96 No Change
LA Governor’s race 50/50 Republican Favored No Change I laid 57/43 ( I sold my shares for a 15% gain in 2 weeks) That is 360% annualized:)
KY Governor’s race 96/4 Democrat I laid 65/35( I sold this out before the election for a 15% gain) This is still considered too close to call, a Recount is in the works.
MS Governor’s race 99-1 Republic Favored +11 Pts I laid 87/13 This wager was a win.
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 44/56 No Change I laid 40/60
The only change was Bloomberg into the picture. So far the Senate is holding firm on no conviction. That is the line to watch at this point. Personally, I think there will be some drama in the Senate. I do not think Trump will be convicted but knowing the politicians they are all drama queens. So expect some nail-biting if you are a Trump supporter.
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.
Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Have a great day trading:)
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks